Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.     

The Relationship Between Exposure to Arsenic Concentrations in Drinking Water and the Development of Skin Lesions in Farmers from Inner Mongolia, China

Associations between the concentration of arsenic naturally occurring in drinking water and the development of skin lesions in people have been documented for some years at various locations around the world. Data on the exposure-response relationship between concentrations of arsenic in drinking water and prevalence of skin lesions in farmers from five locations in Inner Mongolia, China have been collected from the original publications and re-analysed together as a meta-study. The calculated data show a positive linear exposure-response relationship without a threshold. The reasons for this linear correlation are discussed and compared with the data from Xinjiang, another arsenism area located in a different geographical area of China. Here a different relationship was recorded that involved a threshold concentration before skin lesions developed. The significance of these two different exposure-response scenarios is discussed.     

Effects of Selenium Supplementation on Arsenism: An Intervention Trial in Inner Mongolia

This paper reports the effects of a placebo-controlled Se-enriched yeast supplementation trial, conducted for 14 months, on arsenism in adult farmers living in a rural community in Inner Mongolia, China. The farmers had been naturally exposed to elevated concentrations of As in drinking water from tube-wells since 1983 but changed to arsenic-free drinking water when the trial began in June 1996. Blood and hair Se and As concentrations were analysed pre-intervention and at the end of the 3rd, 9th and 14th month, while skin lesions were assessed pre-intervention, as well as at the end of the 14th month, using the Arsenism Clinical Criteria established by the Ministry of Health, China. As the trial was a voluntary one, a number of farmers did not routinely have their blood and hair samples taken for analysis. Consequently, the data have been analysed in two categories. Fifty-four farmers from the Se-group and 29 from the placebo-group who were sampled on each occasion were considered as one group, which has been compared with the second group comprising up to a total of 100 farmers in the Se-group and 86 in the placebo-group. Results calculated for those farmers who were sampled on each occasion, showed that at the end of the trial, blood and hair Se concentrations of the Se-group increased from 0.130 to 0.186 µg ml^–1 and from 0.431 to 0.502 µg g^–1, respectively, while those of the placebo-groups remained constant. Blood and hair As concentrations of the Se-group decreased from 0.051 to 0.015 µg ml^–1 and from 2.57 to 0.680 µg g^–1, respectively, a greater reduction than those in the placebo-group that went from 0.064 to 0.024 µg ml^–1 and from 2.62 to 1.25 µg g^–1, respectively. When the data from all patients were examined, the analytical trends were similar. An evaluation of skin lesions in the category who were sampled for hair and blood on each occasion showed that 41.2% of hyperkeratosis, 50.0% of depigmentation and 44.7% of pigmentation in the Se-group improved one or more degrees, while those in the placebo-group improved by only 7.1, 12.0 and 6.7%, respectively. A total of 61.1% of the adults in Se-group improved in one or more type of skin lesion, but only 17.2% improved in the placebo-group. Comparable results were obtained when all the data from both categories of farmers were examined. Results from the trial showed that Se supplementation was more effective for the improvement of adults who were affected by double or triple skin lesions. In the placebo-group, most of the severely affected adults improved in only one kind of skin lesion, but in the Se-group, more adults improved in two or three kinds of skin lesions. Although the trial was limited by its relatively small size, the results have provided some evidence of the usefulness of Se supplementation for people affected by arsenism.     

Effects of commercial diazinon and imidacloprid on microbial urease activity in soil and sod

Diazinon [O,O-diethyl O-2-isopropyl-6-methyl(pyrimidine-4-yl) phosphorothioate] and imidacloprid [1-(1-[6-chloro-3-pyridinyl]methyl)-N-nitro-2-imidazolidinimine] are applied to lawns for insect control simultaneously with nitrogenous fertilizers such as urea, but their potential effect on urease activity and nitrogen availability in turfgrass management has not been evaluated. Urease activity in enzyme assays, washed cell assays, and soil slurries was examined as a function of insecticide concentration. Intact cores from field sites were used to assess the effect of insecticide application on urease activity in creeping bentgrass (Agrostis palustris Huds.) and bluegrass (Poa pratensis L.) sod. Bacterial urease from Bacillus pasteurii and plant urease from jack bean [Canavalia ensiformis (L.) DC.] were unaffected by the insecticides. Both insecticides inhibited the growth of Proteus vulgaris, a urease-producing bacterium, but only diazinon significantly reduced urease activity in washed cells; neither insecticide inhibited urease activity in sonicated cells. Neither diazinon nor imidacloprid inhibited urease activity in Woolper soil (fine, mixed, mesic Typic Argiudoll) slurries, but diazinon slightly inhibited urease activity in Maury soil (fine, mixed, semiactive, mesic Typic Paleudalf) slurries. Imidacloprid had no effect on urease activity in creeping bentgrass or bluegrass sod at up to 10 times the commercial application rate. Diazinon briefly, but significantly, reduced urease activity in bluegrass sod. Co-application of imidacloprid and urea appears to be benign with respect to urease activity in soil and sod. Diazinon, in contrast, appears to have a significant, short-term, inhibitory effect on the microbial urease-producing community, but that effect depends on soil type.     

Nitrite and Freshwater Fish

Nitrite occurs naturally in fresh waters as a result of nitrification of ammonia and denitrification of nitrate, and its concentration can be enhanced by partial oxidation of ammoniacal discharges. Nitrite is toxic to vertebrates including fish and a principal effect is the conversion of haemoglobin to methaemoglobin which is incapable of oxygen transport although there are circulatory and tissue effects as well. The toxic species is the nitrite ion (NO₂) which is believed to enter the blood via the branchial chloride/bicarbonate exchange and fish such as salmonids with high chloride uptake rates are more susceptible than those with low chloride uptake rates, for example carp. Nitrite toxicity is strongly aleviated by chloride and the concentration ratio of these ions is of great importance in assessing toxicity. Short term and long term toxicity data for a variety of fish species are presented. There are no field data on fish populations in waters where nitrite was the only pollutant. However extensive field surveys indicated that, waters with a mean chloride concentration of 25 mg l^-1 in good salmon fisheries were associated with concentrations of nitrite below 50 μg l^-1 N · NO₂, good coarse fisheries below 100 μg l^-1 N · NO₂.