Fisheries management: integrating societal preference, decision analysis, and ecological risk assessment

Fisheries management is the practice of analyzing and selecting options to maintain or alter the structure, dynamics, and interaction of habitat, aquatic biota, and man to achieve human goals and objectives. The theory of fisheries management is: managers or decision makers attempt to maximize renewable `output' from an aquatic resource by choosing from among a set of decision options and applying a set of actions that generate an array of outputs. Outputs may be defined as a tangible catch, a fishing experience, an existence value, or anything else produced or supported by renewable aquatic resources. Overall output is always a mix of tangible and intangible elements. However defined, management goals and objectives are essential components of fisheries management or any other field of renewable natural resource management. Reaching consensus on management goals and objectives has never been a simple task. Beyond the broad and often conflicting goals of an agency, managers must decide who should set specific management objectives — agency personnel, the public, or a combination of the two. Historically, rhetoric aside, fisheries managers in North America nearly always have consulted with professionals in governmental roles to set management objectives. In a strongly pluralistic society, this often resulted in protracted political and legal conflict. Increasingly, there are calls for use of risk assessment to help solve such ecological policy and management problems commonly encountered in fisheries management. The basic concepts of ecological risk assessment may be simple, but the jargon and details are not. Risk assessment (and similar analytical tools) is a concept that has evoked strong reactions whenever it has been used. In spite of the difficulties of defining problems and setting management objectives for complex ecological policy questions, use of risk assessment to help solve ecological problems is widely supported. Ecological risk assessment will be most useful (and objective) in political deliberations when the policy debate revolves around largely technical concerns. To the extent that risk assessment forces policy debate and disagreement toward fundamental differences rather than superficial ones, it will be useful in decision making.     

Prenatal diagnosis of a de novo unbalanced translocation (4p + ) following in vitro fertilization

We report herein a de novo unbalanced chromosome translocation in a fetus resulting from in vitro fertilization technology. Prenatal diagnostic analysis of an amniotic fluid revealed a 46,XX,4p+ karyotype. The origin of the extra material on the short arm of chromosome 4 could not be identified by a variety of banding techniques. However, examination of fetal parts did reveal some dysmorphic features.     

空气污染与儿童呼吸系统患病率的相关分析

 在流行病学调查和空气污染物监测的基础上，研究讨论了儿童呼吸系统患病率与空气污染之间的相关关系，结果表明，空气中细颗粒物（PM_2.5）和可吸入颗粒物（PM₁₀）与儿童呼吸系统患病率呈线性正相关关系，其影响比SO₂、Nox更密切．哮喘明显受颗粒物、SO₂、Nox的综合作用的影响．未感冒咳嗽发生率明显受细颗粒物和Nox污染综合作用的影响．     

Foreword

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change -     

Practical environmental monitoring of major construction projects

Independent teams undertook environmental monitoring of particular concentrations of major construction projects forming part of Hong Kong’s U.S. $20 billion airport infrastructure programme located in dense urban areas. The team combination of environmental specialists with experienced civil engineers enabled pragmatic mitigation measures to be developed and accepted by the construction personnel with the result that potentially significant adverse impacts were averted. The authors discuss the mechanism and success of this innovative approach.     

Prenatal diagnosis for dystrophia myotonica using the polymerase chain reaction

The polymerase chain reaction has been used to detect an abundant class of short repeat DNA families of the form (dC-dA)n.(dG-dT)n, known as microsatellites. These units are found throughout the human genome and have been characterized for several loci including APOC2 on chromosome 19ql2-ql3.2. The locus APOC2 is linked to the gene for dystrophia myotonica and a microsatellite within this locus was used to derive polymorphisms in a family to predict the inheritance of the disease. Chorionic villus sampling (CVS) was performed at 151/2 weeks' gestation. Following DNA extraction from the CVS material and parental blood samples, microsatellite analysis was carried out by the polymerase chain reaction.     

Carbon isotope ratios in logged and unlogged boreal forests: Examination of the potential for determining wildlife habitat use

Due to assimilation of recycled CO₂ from litter decomposition and photosynthetic changes in carbon fractionation at low light levels, the foliage at the base of a forest is often more depleted in¹³C compared to that exposed to the atmosphere in either the canopy or in open clearings. This is referred to as the canopy effect. African research has indicated that these habitat differences in foliar ¹³C can be substantial enough to affect the carbon isotope ratios of resident fauna. Previous work documenting a 30-year chronology on moose teeth from Isle Royale National Park indicated a progressive depletion in¹³C and suggested that this could be due to forest regrowth following extensive burning. The present study examined the assumption implicit in this hypothesis that foliar ¹³C varies between open and closed boreal forest sites. I found a marginal canopy effect of 2 ¹³C difference between upper canopy and ground flora for a forest in northwestern Ontario and an average difference of 1.2 in under- and mid-story vegetation between closed forests and open clear-cuts. Because of these small differences, the utility of carbon isotope analysis in quantifying temporally integrated exploitation of deforested habitats will be low for northern boreal locations. In denser forests, such as those in the tropics or western North American where the canopy effect can be expected to be much greater, ¹³C analysis may still offer some promise for determining selection by wildlife of disturbed habitats.     

Cost-effective selection of sampling frequencies for regulatory water quality monitoring

A dynamic programming code was formulated for the purpose of assigning sampling frequencies throughout a regulatory water quality monitoring network in order to optimize the statistical performance of the network while operating within a fixed budgetary constraint. The statistical objective is to achieve the greatest possible station to station uniformity in confidence interval widths about annual geometric means of the measured water quality variables and to keep the average confidence width reasonably small. The objective function is the sum (over several selected variables and all stations) of the normalized positive deviations of the predicted confidence interval widths from preselected design confidence interval widths. The code was designed to account for the effects of deterministic seasonal variation and serial correlation of the water quality observations by incorporating the results of the time series analysis of historical quality data. The economic constraint ensures that the annual operating cost of the system, including direct costs of travel and laboratory analysis, will not exceed the allowable budget. As an example situation, the dynamic programming code was used to assign sampling frequencies to the nine stations in Illinois from which historical quality data had been obtained and analyzed. Using five design quality constituents and representative travel and laboratory costs, an “optimal” design was produced. The optimal design achieved a 10% improvement in uniformity (standard deviation) of confidence interval widths when compared to a more traditional design based on the same budget and using identical sampling frequencies at every station.     

Land reclamation and strip-mined coal production in appalachia

This study quantifies the short-run impacts of reclamation on strip mining costs, coal prices, production, and employment in Appalachia. A process analysis model is developed and used to estimate short-run strip-mined coal supply functions under conditions of alternative reclamation requirements. Then, an econometric model is developed and used to estimate coal demand relations. Our results show that full reclamation has rather minor impacts. In 1972, full reclamation would have increased strip-mined coal production costs an average of $0.35 per ton, reduced strip-mined coal production by 10 million tons, and cost approximately 1600 jobs in Appalachia.