Accounting for Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Case Study of Hector's Dolphin Mortality due to Gillnet Entanglement

Abstract: Uncertainties about biological data and human effects often delay decisions on management of endangered species. Some decision makers argue that uncertainty about the risk posed to a species should lead to precautionary decisions, whereas others argue for delaying protective measures until there is strong evidence that a human activity is having a serious effect on the species. We have developed a method that incorporates uncertainty into the estimate of risk so that delays in action can be reduced or eliminated. We illustrate our method with an actual situation of a deadlock over how to manage Hector's dolphin ( Cephalorhychus hectori ). The management question is whether sufficient risk is posed to the dolphins by mortalities in gillnets to warrant regulating the fisheries. In our quantitative risk assessment, we use a population model that incorporates both demographic ( between-individual) and environmental ( between-year) stochasticity. We incorporate uncertainty in estimates of model parameters by repeatedly running the model for different combinations of survival and reproductive rates. Each value is selected at random from a probability distribution that represents the uncertainty in estimating that parameter. Before drawing conclusions, we perform sensitivity analyses to see whether model assumptions alter conclusions and to recommend priorities for future research. In this example, uncertainty did not alter the conclusion that there is a high risk of population decline if current levels of gillnet mortality continue. Sensitivity analyses revealed this to be a robust conclusion. Thus, our analysis removes uncertainty in the scientific data as an excuse for inaction.     

An Evaluation of Restoration Efforts in Fishless Lakes Stocked with Exotic Trout

Abstract: Detrimental effects of introduced fishes on native amphibian populations have prompted removal of introduced cutthroat ( Oncorhynchus clarki ), rainbow ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), and brook trout (  Salvelinus fontinalis ) from naturally fishless lakes at Mt. Rainier National Park, Washington ( U.S.A.). Using paleolimnological indicators (diatoms, invertebrates, and sediment characteristics) in eight 480-year-old sediment cores from eight lakes, we (1) derived estimates of baseline environmental conditions and natural variation, (2) assessed the effects of stocking naturally fishless lakes, and (3) determined whether lakes returned to predisturbance conditions after fish removal (restoration). Diatom floras were relatively stable between 315 and 90 years before present in all lakes; we used this time period to define lake-specific "baseline" conditions. Dissimilarity analyses of diatoms revealed sustained, dramatic changes in diatom floras that occurred approximately 80 years ago (when fish were introduced) in four of five stocked lakes, whereas the diatom floras in two unstocked lakes had not changed significantly in the last 315 years. Diatoms were not preserved in an eighth lake. State changes also occurred in two lakes over 200 years before European settlement of the Pacific Northwest. Preserved invertebrate densities fluctuated dramatically over time in all cores, providing a poor reference for assessing the effects of fishes. Nevertheless, fish-invertebrate interactions have been demonstrated in other paleolimnological studies and may be useful for lower-elevation or more productive lakes. Because diatom communities have not returned to predisturbance assemblages in restored lakes, even 20–30 years after fish removal, we conclude that Mt. Rainier lakes were not successfully restored by the removal of fishes.     

Utility of North Atlantic Right Whale Museum Specimens for Assessing Changes in Genetic Diversity

Abstract: We examined six historical specimens of the endangered North Atlantic right whale ( Eubalaena glacialis ) using DNA isolated from documented baleen plates from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Sequences from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region from these samples were compared with those from a near-exhaustive survey (269 of approximately 320 individuals) of the remaining right whales in the western North Atlantic Ocean. Our results suggest that there has been only relatively modest change in maternal lineage diversity over the past century in the North Atlantic right whale population. Any significant reduction in genetic variation in the species most likely occurred prior to the late nineteenth century. One historical specimen was from the last documented female capable of propagating one of the maternal lineages in the population today; no females in the existing population have been found to carry this mtDNA haplotype. Analysis of the only specimens from the eastern North Atlantic right whale population ever to be examined revealed that eastern and western North Atlantic right whales may not have been genetically differentiated populations. Loss of gene diversity experienced by North Atlantic right whales over the last century has been modest, and the six decades of protection have been successful in maintaining much of the maternal lineage diversity that was present in the late nineteenth century.     

Cougar Dispersal Patterns, Metapopulation Dynamics, and Conservation

Abstract: We examined cougar (   Puma concolor ) dispersal, emigration, and immigration in the San Andres Mountains, New Mexico, from 1985 to 1995 to quantify the effects of dispersal on the local population and surrounding subpopulations. We captured, tagged, and radio-collared animals to detect the arrival of new immigrants and dispersal characteristics of progeny. We found that cougars in southern New Mexico exhibited a metapopulation structure in which cougar subpopulations were separated by expanses of noncougar habitat and linked by dispersers. Of 43 progeny (n = 20 males , 23 females ) studied after independence, only 13 females exhibited philopatric behavior. Males dispersed significantly farther than females, were more likely to traverse large expanses of noncougar habitat, and were probably most responsible for nuclear gene flow between habitat patches. We estimated that an average of 8.5 progeny (i.e., cougars born in the study area) successfully emigrated from and 4.3 cougars successfully immigrated to the San Andres Mountains each year. Concurrently, an average of 4.1 progeny were recruited into the San Andres cougar population. Protected cougar subpopulations can contribute to metapopulation persistence by supplying immigrants to surrounding subpopulations that are affected by fragmentation or offtake by humans. Cougar population dynamics and dispersal behavior dictate that cougar management and conservation should be considered on a regional scale.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Conservation Genetics at the Species Boundary

Abstract: Conservation genetics has expanded its purview such that molecular techniques are now used routinely to prioritize populations for listing and protection and infer their historical relationships in addition to addressing more traditional questions of heterozygosity and inbreeding depression. Failure to specify whether molecular data are being used for diagnosis-related questions or for population viability questions, however, can lead either to misinterpretation of character data as adaptive information or to misinterpretation of frequency or distance data as diagnostic or historical information. Each of these misinterpretations will confound conservation programs. The character-based approach to delimiting phylogenetic species is both operationally and logically superior to "diagnostic" methods that involve distance- or frequency-based routines, which are unstable over time. Tree-based criteria for the diagnosis of conservation "units" are also inappropriate because they can depend on patterns inferred without reference to diagnostic characters. Intraspecific studies, conservation-related or otherwise, that adopt terminology and methods designed to infer nested hierarchic relationships confuse diagnosis with historical inferences by treating diagnoses as outcomes rather than as precursors to phylogeny reconstruction. A character-based diagnostic approach recognizes the analytical dichotomy between species hierarchies and population statistics and provides a framework for the understanding of each. No species concept, however, should be viewed as an absolute criterion for protecting populations, but as part of a framework from within which identification of protection and management goals can be achieved effectively and defensibly.