STATISTICAL METHODS AND SAMPLING DESIGN FOR ESTIMATING STEP TRENDS IN SURFACE-WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: This paper addresses two components of the problem of estimating the magnitude of step trends in surface water quality. The first is finding a robust estimator appropriate to the data characteristics expected in water-quality time series. The Hodges-Lehmann class of estimators is found to be robust in comparison to other nonparametric and moment-based estimators. A seasonal Hodges-Lehmann estimator is developed and shown to have desirable properties. Second, the effectiveness of various sampling strategies are examined using Monte Carlo simulation coupled with application of this estimator. The simulation is based on a large set of total phosphorus data from the Potomac River. To assure that the simulated records have realistic properties, the data are modeled in a multiplicative fashion incorporating flow, hysteresis, seasonal, and noise components. The results demonstrate the importance of balancing the length of the two sampling periods and balancing the number of data values between the two periods. The inefficiency of sampling at frequencies much in excess of 12 samples per year is demonstrated. Rotational sampling designs are discussed, and efficient designs, at least for this river and constituent, are shown to involve more than one year of active sampling at frequencies of about 12 per year.     

AN APPLICATION OF INVESTMENT TIMING ANALYSIS: DUAL WATER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A general methodology to study the economics of dual water systems (defined here as a separate distribution system for untreated low quality local surface Water for outdoor municipal water supply) is summarized and the application of the method to a rapidly growing city is presented. In the first step, a cost-benefit criterion for evaluating dual systems is developed. The criterion is then extended to a dynamic case where the population to be served increases with time and where the dual system is allowed to expand. The optimal investment time to introduce the dual water supply project is obtained by maximizing social welfare. The model is applied to the city of West Jordan, Utah, where a dual system is currently being proposed. Model results indicate that for the city as a whole dual supply is not economically feasible. However, when the model is applied to a part of the city, it is found feasible and the optimal time to initiate the project would be in the year 1989.     

The relationship between job experiences and psychological distress: A structural equation approach

Using structural equations, we estimated the relationship between employees' experiences of seven job conditions, that have been identified as potential job stressors, and psychological distress in a random sample of 504 full-time employed men and women in dual-earner couples. The seven job conditions were: skill discretion, decision authority, schedule control, job demands, pay adequacy, job security, and relations with supervisor. We found that two job conditions — skill discretion and job demands — were related to psychological distress, whereas five other conditions were not. These findings lend partial support to Karasek's job demand — job control model. In our analysis, skill discretion, one of the two components of job control (referred to jointly as decision latitude) was related to distress, however, decision authority, the second component, was not. A third aspect of control, schedule control, was also unrelated to distress. For full-time employed women and men in dual-earner couples, the additive effects of feeling concerned about having to do dull, monotonous work and having to work under pressure of time and conflicting demands were associated with psychological distress. Finally, the magnitude of the relationships between these job experiences and psychological distress did not differ between men and women.     

Twenty-five years of HAZOPs

The HAZOP or hazard and operability study was developed by ICI over 25 years ago and is in wide use today throughout the world. The technique is intended to review, in a formalized manner, the design of a system such as a chemical process production plant to detect potential problems in the operation of the system. The system has been extended for use on all types of production, storage and distribution units. Experience in the use of hazard studies has lead to the development of a phased approach with three distinct design phases.     

Theoretic model for the computer analysis of vehicle collisions

The complexity of the study and reconstruction of traffic accidents justifies the creation of tools which make easier the research in this area. That is the reason why the GIVET has developed a program called SINRAT III that lets, by means of dynamic simulation, reproduce the evolution of two vehicles in an accident in which a collision takes place, letting analyze the precollision and postcollision movements, as well as studying what happens during the contact and deformation of the vehicles in the collision stage. The simulation model is integrated by bodies developed using the bond-graph technique, that allows the simulation of the dynamic behaviour of the vehicles in any circumstance. At the end of this paper, an application example is presented, corresponding to an accident with collision between car and coach.     

The effect of environmental and design parameters on subjective road safety — a case study in Poland

In order to get a better insight into the safety effects of alternative road designs, the subjective safety experiment has been conducted. The experiment has been designed to test the effect of geometric design characteristics and road environment on the subjective safety of rural road curves. The method used here allows to investigate the effect of a real driving environment on safety in a complex way. The results have shown the importance of the composed effect of curve geometry and curve environment on the subjective safety of rural curves.     

Biotechnology is not compatible with sustainable agriculture

Biotechnology increases commercialization of food production, which competes with food for home use. Most people in the world grow their own food, and are more secure without the mediation of the market. To the extent that biotechnology enhances market competitiveness, world food security will decrease. This instability will result in a greater gap between rich and poor, increasing poverty of women and children, less ability and incentive to protect the environment, and greater need for militarization to maintain order. Therefore, biotechnology should be discouraged. An active program to protect and strengthen local food production and to decrease reliance on industrial agriculture should be promoted.     

An evaluation of resource inventory and monitoring program used in national forest planning

The National Forest Management Act (1976) specifies that multiresource inventories be conducted to provide baseline data for development and, later, monitoring of national forest management plans. This mandate entails the most ambitious and complex resource planning effort ever attempted. In this paper we evaluate the structure and use of current inventory-monitoring programs and recommend a framework for gathering data to improve national forest planning. Current national guidelines are general and provide only basic directions to forest-level planners. Forest inventories have traditionally concentrated on timber. Although these inventories are often well designed, the questions we are now asking about forest resources have outgrown these methods. Forest management is impeded by general confusion over definitions of resources and the interactions among them. We outline a simple classification scheme that centers on identification of basic ecosystem elements that can be readily measured. Furthermore, spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the design of inventory-monitoring programs. The concept of ecological indicators is reviewed, and caution is advised in their use. Inventory-monitoring programs should be goal-directed and based on as rigorous a statistical design as possible. We also review fundamental issues of variable selection, validation, and sampling bias. We conclude by developing a flexible inventory-monitoring program that is designed to provide information on individual characteristics of the environment, rather than being based on fixed definitions of resources.     

Final treatment for cattle manure using immobilized microalgae. II. Influence of the recirculation

Some studies have been done dealing with cattle manure treatment, but literature scarcely reports the use of immobilized microalgae as final treatment of this waste. Recently, a complete technology for cattle manure treatment was established, including immobilized microalgae. The influence of the recirculation in the efficiency of the immobilized microalgae process was evaluated.