Aerosol Research and Inhalation Epidemiological Study (ARIES): Air Quality and Daily Mortality Statistical Modeling— Interim Results

ABSTRACT

The Aerosol Research and Inhalation Epidemiological Study (ARIES) is an EPRI-sponsored project to collect air quality and meteorological data at a single site in northwestern Atlanta, GA. Seventy high-resolution air quality indicators (AQIs) are used to examine statistical relationships between air quality and health outcome end points. Contemporaneous mortality data are collected for Fulton and DeKalb counties in Georgia. Currently, 12 months of air quality and weather data are available for analysis, from August 1998 through July 1999.

The interim mortality analysis used Poisson regression in generalized additive models (GAMs). The estimated log-linear association of mortality with various AQIs was adjusted for smoothed functions of time and meteorological data. The analysis considered daily deaths due to all nonaccidental causes, deaths to persons 65 years or older, and deaths in each of the two constituent counties. The fine particle effect associated with the four mortality subgroups, using only today (lag 0), yesterday (lag 1), 2-day average (average of today and yesterday), and first difference (today minus yesterday) measurements of the air quality relative to today's number of deaths was positive for lag 0, lag 1, and 2-day average and positive only for decedents at least 65 years of age using first difference. The t values ranged from 0.81 to 1.15 for lag 0, 1.04 to 1.53 for lag 1, 1.10 to 1.66 for 2-day average, and -0.32 to 0.33 for first difference with 346 or 347 days of data. No statistically significant estimate of the linear coefficient was found for the other 14 air quality variables in our interim analysis for the four mortality subgroups. We discuss diagnostics to support these models.

These interim analyses did not include an evaluation of sensitivity to a larger set of lag structures, nonlinear model specifications, multipollutant analyses, alternative weather model and smoothing model specifications, air pollution imputation schemes, or cause-specific mortality indicators, nor did they include a full reporting of model selection or goodness-of-fit indicators. No conclusion can be drawn at this time about whether the findings from subsequent studies have sufficiently greater power to detect effects comparable to those found in other U.S. cities including at least 2 or 3 years of data.     

Biological Removal of Gaseous Ammonia in Biofilters: Space Travel and Earth-Based Applications

ABSTRACT

Gaseous NH₃ removal was studied in laboratory-scale biofilters (14-L reactor volume) containing perlite inoculated with a nitrifying enrichment culture. These biofilters received 6 L/min of airflow with inlet NH₃ concentrations of 20 or 50 ppm, and removed more than 99.99% of the NH₃ for the period of operation (101, 102 days). Comparison between an active reactor and an autoclaved control indicated that NH₃ removal resulted from nitrification directly, as well as from enhanced absorption resulting from acidity produced by nitrification. Spatial distribution studies (20 ppm only) after 8 days of operation showed that nearly 95% of the NH₃ could be accounted for in the lower 25% of the biofilter matrix, proximate to the port of entry. Periodic analysis of the biofilter material (20 and 50 ppm) showed accumulation of the nitrification product NO₃ ^- early in the operation, but later both NO₂ ^- and NO₃ ^- accumulated. Additionally, the N-mass balance accountability dropped from near 100% early in the experiments to ~95 and 75% for the 20- and 50-ppm biofilters, respectively. A partial contributing factor to this drop in mass balance accountability was the production of NO and N₂O, which were detected in the biofilter exhaust.     

Modeling and Spatially Distributing Forest Net Primary Production at the Regional Scale

Abstract

Forest, agricultural, rangeland, wetland, and urban landscapes have different rates of carbon sequestration and total carbon sequestration potential under alternative management options. Changes in the proportion and spatial distribution of land use could enhance or degrade that area’s ability to sequester carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. As the ecosystems within a landscape change due to natural or anthropogenic processes, they may go from being a carbon sink to a carbon source or vice versa. Satellite image analysis has been tested for timely and accurate measurement of spatially explicit land use change and is well suited for use in inventory and monitoring of terrestrial carbon. The coupling of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data with a physiologically based forest productivity model (PnET-II) and historic climatic data provides an opportunity to enhance field plot-based forest inventory and monitoring methodologies. We use periodic forest inventory data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program to obtain estimates of forest area and type and to generate estimates of carbon storage for evergreen, deciduous, and mixed-forest classes. The area information is used in an accuracy assessment of remotely sensed forest cover at the regional scale. The map display of modeled net primary production (NPP) shows a range of forest carbon storage potentials and their spatial relationship to other landscape features across the southern United States. This methodology addresses the potential for measuring and projecting forest carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere of the southern United States.     

Fundamentals of Successful Monitoring,Reporting, and Verification under a Cap-and-Trade Program

Abstract

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) developed and implemented the Acid Rain Program (ARP), and NO_x Budget Trading Programs (NBTP) using several fundamental monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) elements: (1) compliance assurance through incentives and automatic penalties; (2) strong quality assurance (QA); (3) collaborative approach with a petition process; (4) standardized electronic reporting; (5) compliance flexibility for low-emitting sources; (6) complete emissions data record required; (7) centralized administration; (8) level playing field; (9) publicly available data; (10) performance-based approach; and (11) reducing conflicts of interest. Each of these elements is discussed in the context of the authors’ experience under two U.S. cap-and-trade programs and their potential application to other capand-trade programs.

The U.S. Office of Management and Budget found that the Acid Rain Program has accounted for the largest quantified human health benefits of any federal regulatory program implemented in the last 10 yr, with annual benefits exceeding costs by >40 to 1. The authors believe that the elements described in this paper greatly contributed to this success. EPA has used the ARP fundamental elements as a model for other cap-and-trade programs, including the NBTP, which went into effect in 2003, and the recently published Clean Air Interstate Rule and Clean Air Mercury Rule. The authors believe that using these fundamental elements to develop and implement the MRV portion of their cap-and-trade programs has resulted in public confidence in the programs, highly accurate and complete emissions data, and a high compliance rate (>99% overall).     

Air Quality in Selected Megacities

Abstract

About half of the world's population now lives in urban areas because of the opportunity for a better quality of life. Many of these urban centers are expanding rapidly, leading to the growth of megacities, which are often defined as metropolitan areas with populations exceeding 10 million inhabitants. These concentrations of people and activity are exerting increasing stress on the natural environment, with impacts at urban, regional and global levels. In recent decades, air pollution has become one of the most important problems of megacities. Initially, the main air pollutants of concern were sulfur compounds, which were generated mostly by burning coal. Today, photochemical smog—induced primarily from traffic, but also from industrial activities, power generation, and solvents—has become the main source of concern for air quality, while sulfur is still a major problem in many cities of the developing world. Air pollution has serious impacts on public health, causes urban and regional haze, and has the potential to contribute significantly to global climate change. Yet, with appropriate planning megacities can efficiently address their air quality problems through measures such as application of new emission control technologies and development of mass transit systems.

This review is focused on nine urban centers, chosen as case studies to assess air quality from distinct perspectives: from cities in the industrialized nations to cities in the developing world. This review considers not only megacities, but also urban centers with somewhat smaller populations, for while each city—its problems, resources, and outlook—is unique, the need for a holistic approach to complex environmental problems is the same. There is no single strategy to reduce air pollution in megacities; a mix of policy measures will be needed to improve air quality. Experience shows that strong political will coupled with public dialogue is essential to effectively implement the regulations required to address air quality.     

The Steubenville Comprehensive Air Monitoring Program (SCAMP): Overview and Statistical Considerations

Abstract

Average concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) in Steubenville, OH, have decreased by more than 10 μg/m³ since the landmark Harvard Six Cities Study¹ associated the city’s elevated PM_2.5 concentrations with adverse health effects in the 1980s. Given the promulgation of a new National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM_2.5 in 1997, a current assessment of PM_2.5 in the Steubenville region is warranted. The Steubenville Comprehensive Air Monitoring Program (SCAMP) was conducted from 2000 through 2002 to provide such an assessment. The program included both an outdoor ambient air monitoring component and an indoor and personal air sampling component. This paper, which is the first in a series of four that will present results from the outdoor portion of SCAMP, provides an overview of the outdoor ambient air monitoring program and addresses statistical issues, most notably autocorrelation, that have been overlooked by many PM_2.5 data analyses. The average PM_2.5 concentration measured in Steubenville during SCAMP (18.4 μg/m³) was 3.4g/m³ above the annual PM_2.5 NAAQS. On average, sulfate and organic material accounted for ～31% and 25%, respectively, of the total PM_2.5 mass. Local sources contributed an estimated 4.6 μg/m³ to Steubenville’s mean PM_2.5 concentration. PM_2.5 and each of its major ionic components were significantly correlated in space across all pairs of monitoring sites in the region, suggesting the influence of meteorology and long-range transport on regional PM_2.5 concentrations. Statistically significant autocorrelation was observed among time series of PM_2.5 and component data collected at daily and 1-in-4-day frequencies during SCAMP. Results of spatial analyses that accounted for autocorrelation were generally consistent with findings from previous studies that did not consider autocorrelation; however, these analyses also indicated that failure to account for autocorrelation can lead to incorrect conclusions about statistical significance.     

Mitigation of odor causing emissions—Bench-scale investigation

Emissions of malodors are considered to be the greatest threat to the compost industry. In work presented here, several simple odor mitigation alternatives were investigated for their effectiveness in preventing the release of common odorants, such as terpenes, ammonia, and reduced sulfur compounds. The mitigation methods studied included the use of a blanket of finished compost, compost amendment mixed within the feedstock, odor neutralizing agents (ONAs), and oxygen release compounds (ORCs). Among the mitigation alternatives investigated in this study, the use of finished compost as a blanket and finished compost as an amendment yielded the most conclusive and significant results. Both of these alternatives yielded a substantial emission reduction for terpenes, ammonia, and reduced sulfur compounds. The application of finished compost blanket resulted in up to 95% reduction of terpene and 25% reduction of ammonia emissions. Blending the feedstock with finished compost also provided substantial reduction of terpene emissions ranging from 73.6 to 93.1% at the 24% blending ratio, and up to 85% ammonia reduction a the 35% blending ratio. Use of finished compost also provided 75% lower reduced sulfur compound emissions at the 12% blending ratio. Misting and application of odor neutralizing agents did not result in any consistent reduction in emissions for any of the odorous compounds tested.

Implications The odor emissions from composting are often considered to be the biggest threat to composting facilities. Because most facilities cannot afford enclosures and contained composting vessels, there is a need to inexpensively and effectively control the odor emissions from composting facilities. The findings of this research can lead the way for efforts to control odor easily and cost effectively. In fact, the application of a compost blanket for odor control is already gaining acceptance by the composting industry.     

Aerosol Filtration by Sorbent Beds

Fixed beds of sorbent media are used for the evaluation of poiynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) present in air. Twostage sampling and separate extraction and analyses of PAH associated with aerosol particles and those present in the vapor state are usually performed. The ability of commonly used sorbents to retain particulate matter introduces a potential for reducing the time and cost of PAH evaluation procedures.

The filtration efficiency of three sorbent media, Florisil, XAD-2, and polyurethanefoam (PUF), for particles in 0.1 to 1 µm size range was studied using airflow rates from 4 to 2501 /mm through a PS 1 sorbent cartridge. Theoretical considerations were used to identify the principal filtration mechanisms and to assess the predictability of the aerosol filtration performance of sorbent filters. The results of this study indicate XAD-2 to be an efficient filtration medium owing to the electrostatic enhancement of capturing and retaining aerosol particles.

As a result of theoretical considerations, Brownian diffusion and inertial deposition were found to be major filtration mechanisms accompanied by electrostatic effects. While the efficiency of the diffusional deposition mechanism was reasonably well predicted with available theories, modeling of submicron particle impaction at higher fluid velocities appeared to be inadequate. Further developments are suggested to improve our understanding of filtration phenomena in sorbent beds under high flow rate conditions.     

Application of Forensic Techniques for Age Dating and Source Identification in Environmental Litigation

A multitude of forensic techniques are available for age dating and source identification, including corrosion models for underground storage tanks, the commercial availability of a compound, chemical associations with discrete types of manufacturing processes, chemical profiling, proprietary additives, stable isotope analysis, degradation models, biomarkers and contaminant transport models. The selection and use of these techniques in environmental litigation must be thoroughly understood and applied to be effective as forensic evidence. When introduced as scientific evidence, the governing assumptions and quality of the data are critically evaluated and frequently successfully challenged. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of commonly used environmental forensic techniques and their possible applications so that a user can decide which technique or combination of methods is most appropriate for their case.