Structuring international development decisions: confronting trade-offs between land use and community development in Costa Rica

For more than half a century, research and practice in international development has focused on improving the quality of life of people living in developing regions of the world. Recently, researchers, practitioners, and policy makers have recognized the need to blend insights from experts and community stakeholders in development decisions. Research in the decision sciences tells us that these kinds of multiparty and multiattribute decisions are extremely challenging. However, recent experience using structured decision-making (SDM) approaches suggests that the quality of both expert and stakeholder input, and resulting decisions, can be improved by ensuring that people address a series of basic principles relating to identifying objectives and their associated attributes, estimating the consequences of proposed actions, and directly confronting trade-offs that arise during the evaluation of management alternatives. In this paper, we provide an overview of SDM and then discuss a research initiative aimed at applying the approach to a pressing international development problem in rural Costa Rica: management of the lucrative but also environmentally destructive pineapple industry. The objectives of this research were twofold: First, we sought to help inform policy decisions by eliciting land management preferences regarding the pineapple industry from people living in communities surrounding plantations. Second, we evaluated the effectiveness of the SDM approach in a developing community context.     

Frequency data and modification factors used in QRA studies

The source data for QRA’s is important to assure meaningful risk assessment results, particularly when the result is to be compared against quantitative risk acceptance criteria. The author’s company is one of the largest global QRA providers and we have concluded that the UK HSE Hydrocarbon Release Database (HCRD) provides the basis for the best leak frequency data as it offers complete leak data collection in a systematic manner, against a known population of equipment and facilities in the UK sector of the North Sea for which there is an accurate parts count estimate. The LEAK program is described. It screens HCRD to remove leak events not associated with full operations inventories and flows (e.g. when isolated for maintenance) and further uses a distribution function that permits frequencies for any arbitrary hole size range to be determined (e.g. 25 mm leaks, 50 mm leaks, full-bore ruptures). An important factor is that leak frequency data is not stationary, offshore operators have improved their control of leak events and the HCRD shows a declining leak rate over time.DNV often uses frequency modification techniques, termed MOR - Modification of Risk. This paper reviews 4 methods developed by the company internationally. These are the Manager Method, the API 581 method, a barrier based method, and a proprietary management system based method. These all permit localization of UK North Sea data to apply to other facilities (onshore or offshore) and with different management systems and mechanical integrity programs.Overall, localized data using MOR is considered more accurate than direct use of UK North Sea data, however validation is an issue. There are no direct comparisons that compare leak statistics over a sufficiently long period with static management systems and integrity programs. Thus MOR techniques remain judgment based approaches, but transparent in methodology and assumptions. The barrier based modification technique is the most directly verifiable of the four MOR methods presented.     

Calculating Ne and Ne/N in age-structured populations: a hybrid Felsenstein-Hill approach

The concept of effective population size (Ne) was developed under a discrete-generation model, but most species have overlapping generations. In the early 1970s, J. Felsenstein and W. G. Hill independently developed methods for calculating Ne in age-structured populations; the two approaches produce the same answer under certain conditions and have contrasting advantages and disadvantages. Here, we describe a hybrid approach that combines useful features of both. Like Felsenstein's model, the new method is based on age-specific survival and fertility rates and therefore can be directly applied to any species for which life table data are available. Like Hill, we relax the restrictive assumption in Felsenstein's model regarding random variance in reproductive success, which allows more general application. The basic principle underlying the new method is that age structure stratifies a population into winners and losers in the game of life: individuals that live longer have more opportunities to reproduce and therefore have a higher mean lifetime reproductive success. This creates different classes of individuals within the population, and grouping individuals by age at death provides a simple means of calculating lifetime variance in reproductive success of a newborn cohort. The new method has the following features: (1) it can accommodate unequal sex ratio and sex-specific vital rates and overdispersed variance in reproductive success; (2) it can calculate effective size in species that change sex during their lifetime; (3) it can calculate Ne and the ratio Ne/N based on various ways of defining N; (4) it allows one to explore the relationship between Ne and the effective number of breeders per year (Nb), which is a quantity that genetic estimators of contemporary Ne commonly provide information about; and (5) it is implemented in freely available software (AgeNe).     

Multivariate identification of plant functional response and effect traits in an agricultural landscape

Plant functional traits have been proposed as a linkage between the environmental control of vegetation and ecosystem function. Identification of traits that mediate the response of plant species to the environment is well established, but the identification of effect traits and the linkage between the two sets is less developed. This was attempted for a study of eight contrasting land uses in a marginal agricultural landscape where data on vegetation, management controls of the disturbance regime, and soil characteristics, including nitrogen release, were measured simultaneously with measures of ecosystem function such as litter decomposition rates and primary productivity on 30 sites. Trait data were assembled from databases, and an iterative multivariate approach using the three table (species, trait, environment) method RLQ was employed to identify a parsimonious set of traits that predict plant species responses to the environment and a parsimonious set of traits that link vegetation to ecosystem function. The lists of response and effect traits were similar, and where differences were observed, traits were usually highly correlated with at least one trait in the other list. This approach identified a small number of traits (canopy height, leaf dry matter content, leaf size, and specific leaf area) that provide a means of linking vegetation responses to environmental change with changes in ecosystem function. Other response traits included vegetative spread strategy, start of flowering, and seed terminal velocity, but within the system studied these traits were all significantly correlated to the traits shared between the response and effect lists.     

Directional changes in the species composition of a tropical forest

Long-term studies have revealed that the structure and dynamics of many tropical forests are changing, but the causes and consequences of these changes remain debated. To learn more about the forces driving changes within tropical forests, we investigated shifts in tree species composition over the past 25 years within the 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and examined how observed patterns relate to predictions of (1) random population fluctuations, (2) carbon fertilization, (3) succession from past disturbance, (4) recovery from an extreme El Ni?o drought at the start of the study period, and (5) long-term climate change. We found that there have been consistent and directional changes in the tree species composition. These shifts have led to increased relative representations of drought-tolerant species as determined by the species' occurrence both across a gradient of soil moisture within BCI and across a wider precipitation gradient from a dry forest near the Pacific coast of Panama to a wet forest near its Caribbean coast. These nonrandom changes cannot be explained by stochastic fluctuations or carbon fertilization. They may be the legacy of the El Ni?o drought, or alternatively, potentially reflect increased aridity due to long-term climate change. By investigating compositional changes, we increased not only our understanding of the ecology of tropical forests and their responses to large-scale disturbances, but also our ability to predict how future global change will impact some of the critical services provided by these important ecosystems.     

Social parasitism of queens and workers in the Cape honeybee (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Apis mellifera capensis</Emphasis>)

Workers of a queenless honeybee colony can requeen the colony by raising a new queen from a young worker brood laid by the old queen. If this process fails, the colony becomes hopelessly queenless and workers activate their ovaries to lay eggs themselves. Laying Cape honeybee workers (Apis mellifera capensis) produce female offspring as an additional pathway for requeening. We tested the frequency of successful requeening in ten hopelessly queenless colonies. DNA genotyping revealed that only 8% of all queens reared in hopelessly queenless colonies were the offspring of native laying worker offspring. The vast majority of queens resulted from parasitic takeovers by foreign queens (27%) and invading parasitic workers (19%). This shows that hopelessly queenless colonies typically die due to parasitic takeovers and that the parasitic laying workers are an important life history strategy more frequently used than in providing a native queen to rescue the colony. Parasitism by foreign queens, which might enter colonies alone or accompanied by only a small worker force is much more frequent than previously considered and constitutes an additional life history strategy in Cape honeybees.     

Spatial cross-correlation of undisturbed,natural shortleaf pine stands in northern Georgia

In this study a cross-correlation statistic is used to analyse the spatial relationship among stand characteristics of natural, undisturbed shortleaf pine stands sampled during 1961–72 and 1972–82 in northern Georgia. Stand characteristics included stand age, site index, tree density, hardwood competition, and mortality. In each time period, the spatial cross-correlation statistic was used to construct cross-correlograms and cumulative cross-correlograms for all significant pairwise combination of stand characteristics. Both the cross-correlograms and cumulative cross-correlograms identified small-scale clustering and weak directional gradients for different stand characteristics in each time period. The cumulative cross-correlograms, which are based on inverse distance weighting were more sensitive in detecting small-scale clustering than the cross-correlograms based on a 0–1 weighting. Further analysis suggested that the significant cross-correlation observed among basal area growth and other stand characteristics were due, in a large part, on a subset of sample plots located in the northern part of the state, rather than regional or broad-scale variation as first thought. The ability to analyse the spatial relationship between two or more response surfaces should provide valuable insight in the development of ecosystem level models and assist decision makers in formulating pertinent policy on intelligent multiresource management.     

Release from bats: genetic distance and sensoribehavioural regression in the Pacific field cricket, Teleogryllus oceanicus

The auditory thresholds of the AN2 interneuron and the behavioural thresholds of the anti-bat flight-steering responses that this cell evokes are less sensitive in female Pacific field crickets that live where bats have never existed (Moorea) compared with individuals subjected to intense levels of bat predation (Australia). In contrast, the sensitivity of the auditory interneuron, ON1 which participates in the processing of both social signals and bat calls, and the thresholds for flight orientation to a model of the calling song of male crickets show few differences between the two populations. Genetic analyses confirm that the two populations are significantly distinct, and we conclude that the absence of bats has caused partial regression in the nervous control of a defensive behaviour in this insect. This study represents the first examination of natural evolutionary regression in the neural basis of a behaviour along a selection gradient within a single species.