A Qualitative Approach to Evaluating the Anticipated Reliability of a Photochemical Air Quality Simulation Model for a Selected Application

ABSTRACT

Photochemical air quality simulation models are now used widely in evaluating the merits of alternative emissions control strategies on spatial scales from metropolitan to sub-continental. Greatly varying levels of resources have been available to support modeling, from relatively comprehensive databases and evaluation of performance to a paucity of aerometric data for developing model inputs. Where data are sparse, many alternative outcomes are consistent with the knowledge at hand. Where performance evaluation is inadequately supported, the probability of error may be high. In each instance, uncertainties may be large when compared with the signal of interest, and thus confidence in the reliability of the model as an estimator of future air quality may come into question.

This paper proposes a qualitative procedure for assessing whether a particular application of a modeling system is likely to be potentially unreliable, suggesting that either (1) modification and further evaluation is needed, if supportable, prior to adoption for regulatory application; or (2) the model should not be used if improvement is not supportable. The procedure is proposed for use by policy-makers, staffs of public agencies, air quality managers, environmental staffs of industrial organizations, and other interested parties. The proposed use of the procedure is (1) to assess, a priori, whether a proposed application is likely to be judged questionable or unacceptably uncertain in outcome; and (2) to provide, a posteriori, a basis for judging quickly the likely quality of model performance. The procedure is presented with tropospheric ozone as the pollutant of concern. With adjustments, however, the procedure should be applicable for particu-late matter and other pollutants of interest.     

The Use of Ambient Measurements To Identify which Precursor Species Limit Aerosol Nitrate Formation

ABSTRACT

A thermodynamic equilibrium model was used to investigate the response of aerosol NO₃ to changes in concentrations of HNO₃, NH₃, and H₂SO₄. Over a range of temperatures and relative humidities (RHs), two parameters provided sufficient information for indicating the qualitative response of aerosol NO₃. The first was the excess of aerosol NH₄ ⁺ plus gas-phase NH₃ over the sum of HNO₃, particulate NO₃, and particulate SO₄ ^2- concentrations. The second was the ratio of particulate to total NO₃ concentrations. Computation of these quantities from ambient measurements provides a means to rapidly analyze large numbers of samples and identify cases in which inorganic aerosol NO₃ formation is limited by the availability of NH₃. Example calculations are presented using data from three field studies. The predictions of the indicator variables and the equilibrium model are compared.     

Overview of deaths associated with natural events, United States, 1979–2004

Analysis of the National Center for Health Statistics' Compressed Mortality File showed that between 1979 and 2004, natural events caused 21,491 deaths in the United States. During this 26-year period, there were 10,827 cold-related deaths and 5,279 heat-related deaths. Extreme cold or heat accounted for 75 per cent of the total number of deaths attributed to natural events— more than all of deaths resulting from lightning, storms and foods, and earth movements, such as earthquakes and landslides. Cold-related death rates were highest in the states of Alaska, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota, while heat-related deaths were highest in the states of Arizona, Missouri, and Arkansas. These deaths occurred more often among the elderly and black men. Other deaths were attributed to lightning (1,906), storms and foods (2,741), and earth movements (738). Most deaths associated with natural events are preventable and society can take action to decrease the morbidity and mortality connected with them.     

Validation of road vehicle and traffic emission models – A review and meta-analysis

Road transport is often the main source of air pollution in urban areas, and there is an increasing need to estimate its contribution precisely so that pollution-reduction measures (e.g. emission standards, scrapage programs, traffic management, ITS) are designed and implemented appropriately. This paper presents a meta-analysis of 50 studies dealing with the validation of various types of traffic emission model, including ‘average speed’, ‘traffic situation’, ‘traffic variable’, ‘cycle variable’, and ‘modal’ models. The validation studies employ measurements in tunnels, ambient concentration measurements, remote sensing, laboratory tests, and mass-balance techniques. One major finding of the analysis is that several models are only partially validated or not validated at all. The mean prediction errors are generally within a factor of 1.3 of the observed values for CO₂, within a factor of 2 for HC and NO_x, and within a factor of 3 for CO and PM, although differences as high as a factor of 5 have been reported. A positive mean prediction error for NO_x (i.e. overestimation) was established for all model types and practically all validation techniques. In the case of HC, model predictions have been moving from underestimation to overestimation since the 1980s. The large prediction error for PM may be associated with different PM definitions between models and observations (e.g. size, measurement principle, exhaust/non-exhaust contribution).Statistical analyses show that the mean prediction error is generally not significantly different (p < 0.05) when the data are categorised according to model type or validation technique. Thus, there is no conclusive evidence that demonstrates that more complex models systematically perform better in terms of prediction error than less complex models. In fact, less complex models appear to perform better for PM. Moreover, the choice of validation technique does not systematically affect the result, with the exception of a CO underprediction when the validation is based on ambient concentration measurements and inverse modelling. The analysis identified two vital elements currently lacking in traffic emissions modelling: 1) guidance on the allowable error margins for different applications/scales, and 2) estimates of prediction errors. It is recommended that current and future emission models incorporate the capability to quantify prediction errors, and that clear guidelines are developed internationally with respect to expected accuracy.     

Indicators of carbon storage in U.S. ecosystems: baseline for terrestrial carbon accounting

Policymakers, program managers, and landowners need information about net terrestrial carbon sequestration in forests, croplands, grasslands, and shrublands to understand the cumulative effects of carbon trading programs, expanding biofuels production, and changing environmental conditions in addition to agricultural and forestry uses. Objective information systems that establish credible baselines and track changes in carbon storage can provide the accountability needed for carbon trading programs to achieve durable carbon sequestration and for biofuels initiatives to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. A multi-sector stakeholder design process was used to produce a new indicator for the 2008 State of the Nation's Ecosystems report that presents metrics of carbon storage for major ecosystem types, specifically change in the amount of carbon gained or lost over time and the amount of carbon stored per unit area (carbon density). These metrics have been developed for national scale use, but are suitable for adaptation to multiple scales such as individual farm and forest parcels, carbon offset markets and integrated national and international assessments. To acquire the data necessary for a complete understanding of how much, and where, carbon is gained or lost by U.S. ecosystems, expansion and integration of monitoring programs will be required.     

Spatial variability of atrazine and metolachlor dissipation on dryland no-tillage crop fields in Colorado

An area of interest in precision farming is variable-rate application of herbicides to optimize herbicide use efficiency and minimize negative off-site and non-target effects. Site-specific weed management based on field scale management zones derived from soil characteristics known to affect soil-applied herbicide efficacy could alleviate challenges posed by post-emergence precision weed management. Two commonly used soil-applied herbicides in dryland corn (Zea mays L.) production are atrazine and metolachlor. Accelerated dissipation of atrazine has been discovered recently in irrigated corn fields in eastern Colorado. The objectives of this study were (i) to compare the rates of dissipation of atrazine and metolachlor across different soil zones from three dryland no-tillage fields under laboratory incubation conditions and (ii) to determine if rapid dissipation of atrazine and/or metolachlor occurred in dryland soils. Herbicide dissipation was evaluated at time points between 0 and 35 d after soil treatment using a toluene extraction procedure with GC/MS analysis. Differential rates of atrazine and metolachlor dissipation occurred between two soil zones on two of three fields evaluated. Accelerated atrazine dissipation occurred in soil from all fields of this study, with half-lives ranging from 1.8 to 3.2 d in the laboratory. The rapid atrazine dissipation rates were likely attributed to the history of atrazine use on all fields investigated in this study. Metolachlor dissipation was not considered accelerated and exhibited half-lives ranging from 9.0 to 10.7 d in the laboratory.     

Social comfort zones for transformative conservation decisions in a changing climate

Novel management interventions intended to mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly being considered by scientists and practitioners. However, resistance to more transformative interventions remains common across both specialist and lay communities and is generally assumed to be strongly entrenched. We used a decision-pathways survey of the public in Canada and the United States (n = 1490) to test two propositions relating to climate-motivated interventions for conservation: most public groups are uncomfortable with interventionist options for conserving biodiversity and given the strong values basis for preferences regarding biodiversity and natural systems more broadly, people are unlikely to change their minds. Our pathways design tested and retested levels of comfort with interventions for forest ecosystems at three different points in the survey. Comfort was reexamined given different nudges (including new information from trusted experts) and in reference to a particular species (bristlecone pine [Pinus longaeva]). In contrast with expectations of public unease, baseline levels of public comfort with climate interventions in forests was moderately high (46% comfortable) and increased further when respondents were given new information and the opportunity to change their choice after consideration of a particular species. People who were initially comfortable with interventions tended to remain so (79%), whereas 42% of those who were initially uncomfortable and 40% of those who were uncertain shifted to comfortable by the end of the survey. In short and across questions, comfort levels with interventions were high, and where discomfort or uncertainty existed, such positions did not appear to be strongly held. We argue that a new decision logic, one based on anthropogenic responsibility, is beginning to replace a default reluctance to intervene with nature.     

Understanding Anglers’ Preferences for Fishing Tournament Characteristics and Policies

Saltwater fishing tournaments in the United States are generally not regulated nor are there different fishing regulations for tournament and nontournament anglers. Although much is known about those who participate in fishing tournaments in terms of their fishing motivations, attitudes, and characteristics, much less is known at the angler population level regarding their preferences for tournament opportunities. Using a stated preference choice model with hypothetical scenarios to simulate participation choices and understand preferences, study objectives were to identify angler preferences for various types of tournament fishing “products.” Four tournament policy characteristics were investigated: promotion of catch and release, bait restrictions, whether a percentage of the tournament entrance fee should go to support fishery management activities, and whether a tournament should be a nonprofit or profit-making venture. Three expectation attributes were inserted: tournament size, trip cost per day, and whether a tournament is family friendly. We sent seven different versions of the mail questionnaire to 1,633 anglers. Of 795 returns, 648 were used for estimating conditional logit models. Analysis indicated that a scenario with no management interventions was not most preferred. Anglers most preferred a conservation-oriented option that introduced additional management measures. Overall, scenarios with management interventions were more favored than the status quo situation (with no management interventions). Although respondents showed reluctance to adopt other management-related options, results generally indicated they were increasingly concerned with sustainability of fish stocks and potential conflicts between tournament and nontournament users and preferred tournament products that reflect these concerns.     

Acid-enhanced limestone defluoridation in column reactor using oxalic acid

Acid enhanced limestone defluoridation of water has been studied in a crushed limestone column reactor using oxalic acid (OA). The defluoridation has been studied with varying initial fluoride concentrations of 5, 10, 15 and 20 mg/L and acid concentrations of 0.01, 0.05 and 0.1 M. The fluoride removal was found to increase with increase in the concentration of the acid, removing fluoride up to 95% with 0.1 M OA. The observed good fluoride removal has been attributed to a combination of two mechanisms of fluoride removal, viz., precipitation of calcium fluoride and adsorption of fluoride ions on limestone surfaces. While the removal by precipitation remains same on repeated use of the same limestone column, the adsorption is more with the fresh limestone and decreases gradually on repeated use of the same limestone column. The precipitate has been characterized using various analytical tools, viz., X-ray diffraction, IR spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis, scanning electron microscopy combined with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The Ca²⁺ ions, formed due to dissolution of limestone by the acid, precipitate calcium fluoride along with precipitation of calcium oxalate. A good fluoride removal ability, low residual oxalate, acceptable final pH, low-cost and simplicity of the process make the present acid-enhanced limestone defluoridation process with OA a potential method for defluoridation of groundwater.