Disasters and the Information Technology Revolution

This paper, the second in a series of state-of-the art reviews, examines the evolution and possible medium-term future of information technology (IT) in disaster management. Until the end of the 1970s, civilian application of IT to disaster management was confined to a few specialised departments of universities, large companies and government. Between the late 1970s and mid-1980s, microprocessor-based devices brought limited, though rapidly improving, computing capacity to a wider range of organisations and individuals. Operational applications included real-time emergency information, management decision support and programme and project planning. Extensive innovation occurred, though operational implementation was often long delayed or limited in scope. During the late 1980s, desktop systems became more powerful, more networked, more portable and generally more mature, with a range of practical emergency-related tools emerging. Computer communications emerged as a practical technology for linking emergency professionals on a global basis. From the early 1990s onwards, powerful and inter-connectable computer equipment has evolved to become an indispensable component of disaster operations worldwide. There are presently major changes under way in emergency-related global information access and networking — the implications of which have yet to be played out. The last part of the paper highlights a set of key technologies which seems likely to shape disaster planning, management and research over the next 10 years, and draws out some operational and organisational implications.     

Is it possible to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in pastoral ecosystems of the tropics?

Climate change science has been discussed and synthesized by the world's best minds at unprecedented scales. Now that the Kyoto Protocol may become a reality, it is time to be realistic about the likelihood of success of mitigation activities. Pastoral lands in the tropics hold tremendous sequestration potential but also strong challenges to potential mitigation efforts. Here we present new analyses of the global distribution of pastoral systems in the tropics and the changes they will likely undergo in the next 50 years. We then briefly summarize current mitigation options for these lands. We then conclude by attempting a pragmatic look at the realities of mitigation. Mitigation activities have the greatest chance of success if they build on traditional pastoral institutions and knowledge (excellent communication, strong understanding of ecosystem goods and services) and provide pastoral people with food security benefits at the same time.     

The Tropical Peatland Plantation-Carbon Assessment Tool: estimating CO2 emissions from tropical peat soils under plantations

Land use change on Indonesian peatlands contributes to global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Accessible predictive tools are required to estimate likely soil carbon (C) losses and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from peat soils under this land use change. Research and modelling efforts in tropical peatlands are limited, restricting the availability of data for complex soil model parameterisation and evaluation. The Tropical Peatland Plantation-Carbon Assessment Tool (TROPP-CAT) was developed to provide a user friendly tool to evaluate and predict soil C losses and CO₂ emissions from tropical peat soils. The tool requires simple input values to determine the rate of subsidence, of which the oxidising proportion results in CO₂ emissions. This paper describes the model structure and equations, and presents a number of evaluation and application runs. TROPP-CAT has been applied for both site specific and national level simulations, on existing oil palm and Acacia plantations, as well as on peat swamp forest sites to predict likely emissions from future land use change. Through an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, literature reviews and comparison with other methods of estimating soil C losses, the paper identifies opportunities for future model development, bridging between different approaches to predicting CO₂ emissions from tropical peatlands under land use change. TROPP-CAT can be accessed online from www.redd-alert.eu in both English and Bahasa Indonesia.     

Genotypic, size and morphological diversity of virioplankton in a deep oligomesotrophic freshwater lake (Lac Pavin, France)

We examined changes in morphological and genomic diversities of viruses by means of transmission electronic microscopy and pulsed field gel electrophoresis(PFGE) over a nine-month period(April–December 2005) at four different depths in the oligomesotrophic Lac Pavin. We found that the majority of viruses in this lake belonged to the family of Siphoviridae or were untailed, with capsid sizes ranging from 30 to 60 nm, and exhibited genome sizes ranging from 15 to 45 kb. On average, 12 different genotypes dominated each of the PFGE fingerprints. The highest genomic viral richness was recorded in summer(mean = 14 bands per PFGE fingerprint) and in the epilimnion(mean = 13 bands per PFGE fingerprint). Among the physico-chemical and biological variables considered, the availability of the hosts appeared to be the main factor regulating the variations in the viral diversity.     

Modeling of Escherichia coli Fluxes on a Catchment and the Impact on Coastal Water and Shellfish Quality1

Bougeard, Morgane, Jean‐Claude Le Saux, Nicolas Pérenne, Claire Baffaut, Marc Robin, and Monique Pommepuy, 2011. Modeling of Escherichia coli Fluxes on a Catchment and the Impact on Coastal Water and Shellfish Quality. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐17. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00520.x Abstract: The simulation of the impact of Escherichia coli loads from watersheds is of great interest for assessing estuarine water quality, especially in areas with shellfish aquaculture or bathing activities. For this purpose, this study investigates a model association based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) coupled with a hydrodynamic model (MARS 2D; IFREMER). Application was performed on the catchment and estuary of Daoulas area (France). The daily E. coli fluxes simulated by SWAT are taken as an input in the MARS 2D model to calculate E. coli concentrations in estuarine water and shellfish. Model validation is based on comparison of frequencies: a strong relationship was found between calculated and measured E. coli concentrations for river quality (r² = 0.99) and shellfish quality (r² = 0.89). The important influence of agricultural practices and rainfall events on the rapid and large fluctuations in E. coli fluxes from the watershed (reaching three orders of magnitude in <24 hours) is one main result of the study. Response time in terms of seawater quality degradation ranges from one to two days after any important rainfall event (greater than 10 mm/day) and the time for estuary to recover good water quality also mainly depends on the duration of the rainfall. In the estuary, three effects (rainfall, tidal dilution, and manure spreading) have been identified as important influences.     

Assessment of harbor seal predation on adult salmonids in a Pacific Northwest estuary.

The populations of many native species have increased or expanded in distribution in recent decades, sometimes with negative consequences to sympatric native species that are rarer or less adaptable to anthropogenic changes to the environment. An example of this phenomenon from the Pacific Northwest is predation by locally abundant pinnipeds (seals and sea lions) on threatened, endangered, or otherwise depleted salmonid (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations. We used survey sampling methodology, acoustic telemetry, and molecular genetics to quantify the amount of harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) predation on a depressed run of coho salmon (O. kisutch) and to determine whether some seals consumed a disproportionately higher number of salmonids than others. Based on a probability sample totaling 759.5 h of observation, we estimated that seals consumed 1161 adult salmonids (95% CI = 503-1818 salmonids) during daylight hours over an 18.9-km estuarine study area in Oregon during an 84-d period in fall 2002. Simultaneous tracking of 56 seals via an acoustic telemetry array indicated that a small proportion of marked seals (12.5%) exhibited behavior that was consistent with specialization on salmonids. These seals spent the majority of their time in the riverine portion of the study area and did so disproportionately more at night than day. Genetic analysis of 116 salmonid structures recovered from 11 seal fecal samples suggested that coho salmon accounted for approximately one-half of total salmonid consumption. Though subject to considerable uncertainty, the combined results lead us to infer that seals consumed 21% (range = 3-63%) of the estimated prespawning population of coho salmon. We speculate that the majority of the predation occurred upriver, at night, and was done by a relatively small proportion of the local seal population. Understanding the extent and nature of pinniped predation can provide important inputs into risk assessments and other modeling efforts designed to aid the conservation and recovery of salmonids in the Pacific Northwest. Such understanding may also help inform management actions designed to reduce the impact of pinniped predation on salmonids, which potentially range from short-term lethal removal programs to long-term ecosystem restoration and protection efforts.     

Implications of Intratropical Migration on Reserve Design: A Case Study Using Pharomachrus mocinno

As habitat loss continues, natural protected areas will become islands in human-modified landscapes; maintenance of functional communities and ecosystems will depend on properly designed protected areas. We demonstrate that incorporating regional habitat linkages that allow for seasonal migrations of intratropical resident species must be a major design criterion for establishing protected areas. Using radiotelemetry, we monitored the seasonal movements of one such migrant, the Resplendent Quetzal ( Pharomachrus mocinno ), a large, frugivorous bird, one of many tropical residents known to migrate altitudinally within Mesoamerica. Based on three years of data we determined that quetzals followed a complicated local migration that linked four montane life zones. Using this species as an indicator revealed that the configuration of the Monteverde reserve complex in the Tilaran Mountains in west-central Costa Rica lacked sufficient habitat distribution to conserve montane biodiversity. On the basis of these results, we propose that the three-step process proposed by Soulé and Simberloff (1986) for estimating minimum sizes of reserves be amended to include a fourth step: The critical habitats used throughout the annual cycles of target or keystone species must be identified and adequately protected. Natural protected areas can be considered adequately designed only when sufficient area with a full complement of ecologically linked habitats is included.     

Female pseudohermaphroditism in a fetus with a deletion 9(q22.2q31.1)

Interstitial deletions of chromosomal region 9q are rarely seen. We report the first prenatal diagnosis of a de novo interstitial deletion 9q. The fetus was karyotyped for intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR). Conventional and molecular cytogenetics showed female karyotype with a de novo deletion of the chromosomal region 9(q22.2q31.1) leading to a partial monosomy 9q. At autopsy, the fetus showed growth retardation, dysmorphy, and a female pseudohermaphroditism. These results suggest that a gene(s) for genital development reside in chromosomal region 9q22.2q31.1. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.