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341.
Anja Soboll Michael Elbers Roland Barthel Juergen Schmude Andreas Ernst Ralf Ziller 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2011,16(4):477-498
Within climate change impact research, the consideration of socioeconomic processes remains a challenge. Socioeconomic systems
must be equipped to react and adapt to global change. However, any reasonable development or assessment of sustainable adaptation
strategies requires a comprehensive consideration of human-environment interactions. This requirement can be met through multi-agent
simulation, as demonstrated in the interdisciplinary project GLOWA-Danube (GLObal change of the WAter Cycle; ). GLOWA-Danube has developed an integrated decision support tool for water and land use management in the Upper Danube catchment
(parts of Germany and Austria, 77,000 km2). The scientific disciplines invoked in the project have implemented sixteen natural and social science models, which are
embedded in the simulation framework DANUBIA. Within DANUBIA, a multi-agent simulation approach is used to represent relevant
socioeconomic processes. The structure and results of three of these multi-agent models, WaterSupply, Household and Tourism,
are presented in this paper. A main focus of the paper is on the development of global change scenarios (climate and society)
and their application to the presented models. The results of different simulation runs demonstrate the potential of multi-agent
models to represent feedbacks between different water users and the environment. Moreover, the interactive usage of the framework
allows to define and vary scenario assumptions so as to assess the impact of potential interventions. It is shown that integrated
modelling and scenario design not only provide valuable information, but also offer a platform for discussing complex human-environment-interactions
with stakeholders. 相似文献
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Gihad E. Chalouhi Anne-Maude Morency Roland De Vlieger José Maria Martinez Thomas Blanc Ryan Hodges Alexandra Gueneuc Greg Ryan Jan Deprest Eduard Gratacos Yves Ville 《黑龙江环境通报》2017,37(10):968-974
We reviewed data from a cohort of fetuses with ureterocele diagnosed and operated prenatally in four fetal therapy centers. Inclusion criteria were (1) ureterocele confirmed on detailed fetal ultrasound examination, (2) absence of additional fetal malformations, and (3) fetal intervention to decompress the ureterocele with local institutional review boards' approval. Data on sonographic follow-up, obstetrical, neonatal outcome, and postnatal evaluation were collected. Ten cases of prenatally treated ureterocele are described. Six cases benefited from a fetoscopy for laser incision and decompression, two cases had an ultrasound guided puncture before resorting to a fetoscopy with laser incision, one case had a balloon catheterization under ultrasound guidance, and one case had an ultrasound-guided opening of the ureterocele with a laser fiber passed through a 20-gauge needle. Mean gestational age at diagnosis was 21.6 GW. Two cases underwent termination of pregnancy. The remaining eight cases recovered normal amniotic fluid volume and delivered a liveborn child at a mean gestational age of 38.6 GW with normal creatinine levels during the first week of life. Prenatal incision provided complete treatment of severely obstructive ureteroceles in 80% of the cases and allowed improvement of urinary electrolytes, renal size and echogenicity, bladder filling in all survivors, and recollection of normal amniotic fluid volume, in case of oligoanhydramnios. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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In recent years, pyrolysis processes have become technologies developed to industrial scale and discussed as alternatives to the existing waste combustion technology. However, little information is published regarding PCDD/F formation characteristics during pyrolysis processes. Two common shredder fractions – industrial light shredder (ILS) and refrigerators (REF) – both with high chlorine and copper content were pyrolysed for this pyrolysis study using a pilot plant with a capacity of 100 kg/h. At oxygen concentrations below 2% and temperatures between 430°C and 470°C, considerable amounts of PCDD/F were formed during the pyrolysis. More than 90% of total TEQ was found in the oil fraction (gas phase). The PCDD/PCDF ratio and the homologue pattern differed significantly from those formed during waste incineration. Considering mono- to octachlorinated congeners, up to 400 times more PCDF were formed compared to PCDD. For the investigated pyrolysis conditions, the formation of low chlorinated congeners was highly favoured. The distribution of TEQ within the individual congeners were very similar in all investigated runs. More than 80% of total TEQ stem from 2,3,7,8-substituted T4CDF and P5CDF. The isomer pattern, however, did not show significant differences compared to the common waste incineration pattern suggesting that the basic formation routes are similar. 相似文献
348.
Environmental Geochemistry and Health - Environmental isotope techniques were applied to study the hydrochemical characteristics of groundwater in Soc Trang Province, Southern Vietnam, in frame of... 相似文献
349.
Winfried Schröder Hubert Bast Roland Pesch Gunther Schmidt Ellen Kiel 《Environmental Sciences Europe》2007,19(2):115-122
Goal and Scope
The coastal zones of Lower Saxony (Germany) are former malaria regions. Malaria had finally become extinct in the early 1950s, and subsequently related scientific investigations declined. But from that time until nowadays, the vector in the form of Anopheles mosquitoes has still been present in Lower Saxony. Thus, the question arises, whether a new autochthon transmission could take place due to the monthly mean temperatures of the recent years. Answering this question was one goal of the investigation at hand. Another one was to examine the spatial and temporal structure of potential transmissions in respect to the predicted increase of the air temperatures according to the IPCC scenarios.Methods
Current information about anophelines and their characteristics within Germany, such as details on historical incidences, breeding preferences, longevity or distribution of the respective species, were collected by literature research. Further, measurement and incidence data had to be collected and processed: temperature values were provided by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), and recent findings of Anopheles were supplied by the former Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Ökologie (NLÖ) as a data bank. Then temperature maps were calculated for the three periods (1947–1960, 1961–1990, 1985–2004) by means of Kriging. To model areas at risk, the transmission potential for a new vivax malaria spread in respect to temperature was computed using the Basic Reproduction Rate (R0) formula. It provides the average number of secondary infections produced when a single infected individual is introduced into a potential host population in which each member is susceptible.Results
The computations corroborate a climate warming between the 30-years interval from 1961 to 1990 and the period from 1985 to 2004. According to the rise of the air temperature as predicted by the IPCC scenarios, the spatial pattern of potential malaria outbreak was calculated for 2020, 2060 an 2100. To this end, for each of these years a best-case-scenario with the lowest reasonable temperature increases (+0.3°C, +0.9°C, +1.4°C) and a worst-case-scenario implying the highest plausible temperature rise (+0.9°C, +3.3°C, +5.8°C) were assumed. While in 2020 the maximum duration of the transmission risk is estimated to last four months, in 2100 the vivax transmission will be likely from May until October.Discussion
Correlated with the higher monthly mean temperature values, the risk of a vivax transmission is increasing as temperature is the determining variable of the mathematical model. Therefore Lower Saxony is at risk of a new outbreak of vivax malaria assuming no other risk factors are of relevance.Conclusions
The study could demonstrate that most parts of the country lie within a transmission zone with a duration of two months. The areas containing the highest risk with a transmission length of three months are located around Nordhorn and Hameln, and within the rectangle of Celle, Hannover, Helmstedt and Wolfsburg. These areas match with recent Anopheles larvae finding by the NLÖ, thus, only the pathogen is lacking for a successful transmission. And as Germany is not an endemic malaria zone, the pathogen can enter the country most likely by infected people or imported mosquitoes that transport it in their guts.Recommendations and Perspectives
The results should be understood as a request for more comprehensive investigations in that field. This would be an essential basis for a successful risk monitoring and precautionary management. Although the chances of a new endemic malaria disease in Germany seem to be considerably low today, it would be better to be prepared than to be suddenly faced with the unexpected. 相似文献350.