The International Lead and Zinc Study Group and the metals market

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group was founded by the United Nations in 1959. There are 32 member countries which together cover over 90% of world production and consumption of total lead and zinc. The Study Group, inter alia provides opportunities for consultation on lead and zinc, provides information regarding supply and demand, collects and disseminates statistics, studies different aspects of the world situation in lead and zinc and considers possible solutions to any special problems. This paper presents excerpts of the activities of the International Lead and Zinc Study Group in each of the above areas.     

Energy Use and CO2 Production in Tropical Agriculture and Means and Strategies for Reduction or Mitigation

Carbon dioxide emissions due to fossil fuel consumption are well recognized as a major contributor to climate change. In the debate on dealing with this threat, expectations are high that agriculture based economies of the developing world can help alleviate this problem. But, the contribution of agricultural operations to these emissions is fairly small. It is the clearing of native ecosystems for agricultural use in the tropics that is the largest non-fossil fuel source of CO₂ input to the atmosphere. Our calculation show that the use of fossil energy and the concomitant emission of CO₂ in the agricultural operational sector - i.e. the use of farm machinery, irrigation, fertilization and chemical pesticides - amounts to merely 3.9% of the commercial energy use in that part of the world. Of this, 70% is associated with the production and use of chemical fertilizers. In the absence of fertilizer use, the developing world would have converted even more land for cultivation, most of which is completely unsuitable for cultivation. Current expectations are that reforestation in these countries can sequester large quantities of carbon in order to mitigate excessive emissions elsewhere. But, any program that aims to set aside land for the purpose of sequestering carbon must do so without threatening food security in the region. The sole option to liberate the necessary land for carbon sequestration would be the intensification of agricultural production on some of the better lands by increased fertilizer inputs. As our calculations show, the sequestration of carbon far outweighs the emissions that are associated with the production of the extra fertilizer needed. Increasing the fertilizer use in the developing world (without China) by 20%, we calculated an overall net benefit in the carbon budget of between 80 and 206 Mt yr^?1 dependent on the carbon sequestration rate assumed for the regrowing forest. In those regions, where current fertilizer use is low, the relative benefits are the highest as responding yield increases are highest and thus more land can be set aside without harming food security. In Sub-Saharan Africa a 20% fertilizer increase, which amounts to 0.14 Mt of extra fertilizer, can tie up somewhere between 8 and 19 Mt of CO₂ per year (average: 96 t CO₂ per 1 t fertilizer). In the Near East and North Africa with a 20%-increased fertilizer use of 0.4 Mt yr^-1 between 10 and 24 Mt of CO₂ could be sequestered on the land set aside (40 t CO₂ per 1 t fertilizer). In South Asia this is 22–61 Mt CO₂ yr?1 with an annual additional input of 2.15 Mt fertilizer (19 t CO₂ per 1 t fertilizer). In fact, carbon credits may be the only way for some of the farmers in these regions to afford the costly inputs. Additionally, in regions with already relatively high fertilizer inputs such as in South Asia, an efficient use of the extra fertilizer must be warranted. Nevertheless, the net CO₂ benefit through implementation of this measure in the developing world is insignificant compared to the worldwide CO₂ output by human activity. Thus, reforestation is only one mitigating measure and not the solution to unconstrained fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. Carbon emissions should, therefore, first of all be reduced by the avoidance of deforestation in the developing world and moreover by higher energy efficiency and the use of alternative energy sources.     

Experimental evidence of a risk-sensitive reproductive allocation in a long-lived mammal

When reproduction competes with the amount of resources available for survival during an unpredictable nonbreeding season, individuals should adopt a risk-sensitive regulation of their reproductive allocation. We tested this hypothesis on female reindeer (Rangifer tarandus), which face a trade-off between reproduction and acquisition of body reserves during spring and summer, with autumn body mass functioning as insurance against stochastic winter climatic severity. The study was conducted in a population consisting of two herds: one that received supplementary winter feeding for four years while the other utilized natural pastures. The females receiving additional forage allocated more to their calves. Experimental translocation of females between the herds was conducted to simulate two contrasting rapid alterations of winter conditions. When females receiving supplementary feeding were moved to natural pastures, they promptly reduced their reproductive allocation the following summer. However, when winter conditions were improved, females were reluctant to increase their reproductive allocation. This asymmetric response to improved vs. reduced winter conditions is consistent with a risk-averse adjustment in reproductive allocation. The ability of individuals to track their environment and the concordant risk-sensitive adjustment of reproductive allocation may render subarctic reindeer more resilient to climate change than previously supposed.     

An empirical investigation of returns to scale: The Welsh coal industry

This article attempts to study both returns to scale and optimal size of production. Specifically, the authors estimate a ray-homothetic production function which allows the returns to scale to vary with ouput size and input mix. The production model is estimated using data from the Welsh coal industry for the period 1961–1976. Findings showed that, first, the Welsh coal industry suffers from a level of production which is either too small or below its optimal level and, second, this discrepancy between actual and optimal production worsened over the period considered.