Global change impacts on the Upper Danube Catchment (Central Europe): a study of participatory modeling

Participatory modeling (PM) has become an essential concept in environmental impact assessment and planning in the field of water resources. In this paper, we focus on the use of PM to support the development of the integrated regional modeling system DANUBIA as a scientific concept to analyze the previously unknown impacts of global change, i.e., the combined effects of climate, demographic, economic, social and ecological change, on the Upper Danube Catchment (Germany). We use this case study to examine the specific conditions for PM in the field of complex integrated models on a regional scale. We describe the stepwise PM process and discuss the respective results, focusing on (1) the stakeholder dialogue’s contribution in supporting the development of new, complex modeling systems, particularly on a regional scale, (2) conditions of stakeholder involvement in issues related to the distant future, such as climate change impacts on regional water availability, and (3) limitations of PM and scientists’ motivation to carry out participatory research at all. We conclude that the PM process was not entirely successful in improving the scientific quality and practical applicability of the developed models because the process goals were manifold and overambitious, and the definition of the problem of “global change impacts on a regional scale” was too weak and uncertain to allow for a clear common objective of modelers and stakeholders. We claim that there is a lack of incentives for scientists, particularly natural scientists, to commit to PM activities.     

The Great Recession or progressive energy policies? Explaining the decline in US greenhouse gas emissions forecasts

This paper evaluates the causes of the 23% decline in 2030 US greenhouse gas emissions forecasts between 2007 and 2011. Dynamic regression modeling predicts that the Great Recession contributed to about 67% of the 2008–2009 emissions decline, but then fell to about an 18% share for the 2030 emissions forecast. An analysis of electricity generation forecasts show that switching from coal to gas contributed only 6% to the total 2030 decline. In contrast, regulatory impact assessments and policy analysis showed that state and federal policies were responsible for 46% of the 2030 decline in emissions.     

Vascular function and short-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution

Exposure to fine particulate air pollution has been implicated as a risk factor for cardiopulmonary disease and mortality. Proposed biological pathways imply that particle-induced pulmonary and systemic inflammation play a role in activating the vascular endothelium and altering vascular function. Potential effects of fine particulate pollution on vascular function are explored using controlled chamber exposure and uncontrolled ambient exposure. Research subjects included four panels with a total of 26 healthy nonsmoking young adults. On two study visits, at least 7 days apart, subjects spent 3 hr in a controlled-exposure chamber exposed to 150-200 microg/m3 of fine particles generated from coal or wood combustion and 3 hr in a clean room, with exposure and nonexposure periods alternated between visits. Baseline, postexposure, and post-clean room reactive hyperemia-peripheral arterial tonometry (RH-PAT) was conducted. A microvascular responsiveness index, defined as the log of the RH-PAT ratio, was calculated. There was no contemporaneous vascular response to the few hours of controlled exposure. Declines in vascular response were associated with elevated ambient exposures for the previous 2 days, especially for female subjects. Cumulative exposure to real-life fine particulate pollution may affect vascular function. More research is needed to determine the roles of age and gender, the effect of pollution sources, the importance of cumulative exposure over a few days versus a few hours, and the lag time between exposure and response.     

New insight into defining the lakes of the southern Baltic coastal zone

There exist many classification systems of hydrographic entities such as lakes found along the coastlines of seas and oceans. Each system has its advantages and can be used with some success in the area of protection and management. This paper aims to evaluate whether the studied lakes are only coastal lakes or rather bodies of water of a completely different hydrological and hydrochemical nature. The attempt to create a new classification system of Polish coastal lakes is related to the incompleteness of lake information in existing classifications. Thus far, the most frequently used are classifications based solely on lake basin morphogenesis or hydrochemical properties. The classifications in this paper are based not only on the magnitude of lake water salinity or hydrochemical analysis but also on isolation from the Baltic Sea and other sources of water. The key element of the new classification system for coastal bodies of water is a departure from the existing system used to classify lakes in Poland and the introduction of ion-“tracking” methods designed to identify anion and cation distributions in each body of water of interest. As a result of the work, a new classification of lakes of the southern Baltic Sea coastal zone was created. Featured objects such as permanently brackish lakes, brackish lakes that may turn into freshwater lakes from time to time, freshwater lakes that may turn into brackish lakes from time to time, freshwater lakes that experience low levels of salinity due to specific incidents, and permanently freshwater lakes. The authors have adopted 200 mg Cl^? dm^?3 as a maximum value of lake water salinity. There are many conditions that determine the membership of a lake to a particular group, but the most important is the isolation lakes from the Baltic Sea. Changing a condition may change the classification of a lake.     

Competitive sorption of cis-DCE and TCE in silica gel as a model porous mineral solid

The competitive sorption of 1,2-cis-dichloroethene (cis-DCE) and trichloroethene (TCE) was investigated by means of column experiments using a model porous mineral solid represented by silica gel. The experimental isotherms were obtained by employing a chromatographic method. The competitive sorption isotherms were modelled with the extended Freundlich and extended Langmuir isotherms, using the parameters from single-solute experiments. The breakthrough curves were modelled with the advection-dispersion transport equation coupled with the lumped pore diffusion model. The best results were obtained when the extended Freundlich isotherm was employed. The competitive sorption was revealed with the presence of an overshoot in the breakthrough curve of cis-DCE and a decrease in the degree of sorption of cis-DCE (20%) and TCE (12%). A linear dependency of the overshoot with an increase in the concentration of cis-DCE at a fixed concentration of TCE was observed, between 16% and 20%, and at least at concentrations <6 mg L(-1) in the liquid phase. The displaced molecules of cis-DCE by TCE were accumulated through the column causing its overshoot; thus short columns may hinder its observation. Thermodynamic analysis shows an exothermic adsorption process of -34 to -41 kJ mol(-1), which is enhanced by sorption in micropores. The Gibbs free energy is positive for cis-DCE in the multi-component case, due to its displacement by TCE.