Incorporating anthropogenic variables into a species distribution model to map gypsy moth risk

This paper presents a novel methodology for multi-scale and multi-type spatial data integration in support of insect pest risk/vulnerability assessment in the contiguous United States. Probability of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) establishment is used as a case study. A neural network facilitates the integration of variables representing dynamic anthropogenic interaction and ecological characteristics. Neural network model (back-propagation network [BPN]) results are compared to logistic regression and multi-criteria evaluation via weighted linear combination, using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) and a simple threshold assessment. The BPN provided the most accurate infestation-forecast predictions producing an AUC of 0.93, followed by multi-criteria evaluation (AUC = 0.92) and logistic regression (AUC = 0.86) when independently validating using post model infestation data. Results suggest that BPN can provide valuable insight into factors contributing to introduction for invasive species whose propagation and establishment requirements are not fully understood. The integration of anthropogenic and ecological variables allowed production of an accurate risk model and provided insight into the impact of human activities.     

Potential direct fitness consequences of ornament-based mate choice in a butterfly

Female mate choice has been shown to provide direct mating benefits in several animal groups. In butterflies, for which there are increasing reports of fine-scale color-based mate choice, the evolutionary benefits that accrue from such mating biases, if any, are largely unknown. We addressed this issue in the butterfly Colias eurytheme, a species in which females choose mates on the basis of iridescent ultraviolet (UV) wing ornamentation and in which males donate reproductively beneficial nuptial gifts. In the first experiment, we assessed the mass of gifts donated to 77 virgin females by males sampled directly from a field encounter site. Despite large variance in the male adult phenotype and ejaculate, no single aspect of dorsal wing coloration, including UV brightness, chroma, or hue, was related to ejaculate mass. There was, however, an interesting interaction between the effects of male body size and copula duration upon ejaculate mass, with size scaling positively with ejaculate mass among males involved in shorter copulations (those lasting <70 min) but negatively among males in longer copulations. In the second experiment, we assessed the lifetime fecundity, fertility, and longevity of 85 females mated under similar circumstances to free-flying wild males. Although several wing color parameters proved subtly informative in more sophisticated multivariable models, no model predicted more than about 20% of the variation in any single female fitness parameter. The duration of copulation, which ranged from 35 min to over 16 h and which carries putative costs for females, was, again, only very weakly predicted by male wing color parameters (i.e., R ² = 0.089). Given the overall minor predictive power of male wing coloration in general and of UV brightness in particular, our results do not strongly support the hypothesis that female C. eurytheme prefer bright UV males to obtain direct benefits or to minimize the costs associated with lengthy copulations.     

Male wing color properties predict the size of nuptial gifts given during mating in the Pipevine Swallowtail butterfly (Battus philenor)

In many animals, males bear bright ornamental color patches that may signal both the direct and indirect benefits that a female might accrue from mating with him. Here we test whether male coloration in the Pipevine Swallowtail butterfly, Battus philenor, predicts two potential direct benefits for females: brief copulation duration and the quantity of materials the male passes to the female during mating. In this species, males have a bright iridescent blue field on the dorsal hindwing surface, while females have little or no dorsal iridescence. Females preferentially mate with males who display a bright and highly chromatic blue field on their dorsal hindwing. In this study, we show that the chroma of the blue field on the male dorsal hindwing and male body size (forewing length) significantly predict the mass of material or spermatophore that a male forms within the female’s copulatory sac during mating. We also found that spermatophore mass correlated negatively with copulation duration, but that color variables did not significantly predict this potential direct benefit. These results suggest that females may enhance the material benefits they receive during mating by mating with males based on the coloration of their dorsal hindwing.     

Rebuilding and strengthening health systems and providing basic health services in fragile states

The international community has compelling humanitarian, political, security and economic reasons to engage in rebuilding and strengthening health systems in fragile states. Improvements in health services and systems help to strengthen civil society and to restore legitimacy to governments. Effective engagement with fragile states to inform the design of health programmes and selection of interventions depends on donor coordination and an understanding of health system challenges. Planning requires consideration of allocation (services to be delivered), production (organisation of services), distribution (beneficiaries of services) and financing. The criteria for selecting interventions are: their impact on major health problems; effectiveness; the possibility of scale-up; equity; and sustainability. There are various options for financing and models of engagement, but support should always combine short-term relief with longer-term development. Stakeholders should aim not only to save lives and protect health but also to bolster nations' ability to deliver good-quality services in the long run.     

Reduction of photoreactivation with the combined UV/peracetic acid process or by delayed exposure to visible light.

Photoreactivation of microorganisms following UV inactivation is a well-known, but complex, phenomenon. It is affected by several factors, including UV fluence, wavelength, light intensity, and exposure time to photoreactivating light. The effect on photoreactivation of a combined peracetic acid (PAA)/UV process has not been investigated. Accordingly, this study compared the degree of photoreactivation, under both sunlight and artificial lights, following UV and combined PAA/UV inactivation of fecal coliforms. Effluent samples from the Montreal Wastewater Treatment Plant (MWTP) (Quebec, Canada) were exposed, for 3 hours, to both low- and high-intensity artificial lights and sunlight. All resulted in similar photoreactivation levels. However, average photoreactivation for UV-treated wastewater samples was 1.2 logs, compared with 0.1 log for the combined PAA/UV treatment. Hence, the use of PAA in combination with UV can significantly reduce the potential for photoreactivation. To simulate the photoreactivation conditions of the MWTP effluent (which passes through a 4-km outfall tunnel with approximately 3 hours detention time), UV-treated samples were kept in the dark for 3 hours before photoreactivating light exposure. After this period, photoreactivation levels were close to zero. Hence, the effects of photoreactivation may be diminished by use of a combined disinfection scheme and/or by delaying exposure of the disinfected wastewater to light.     

Calculated physical properties of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans

The modified neglect of diatomic overlap (MNDO) method, a semi-empirical molecular orbital calculation, has been used to calculate the heats of formation, ionization potentials, dipole moments, and LUMOs (lowest unoccupied molecular orbitals) for all of the tetra, penta, hexa, hepta, and octa-chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans. These data have been used to predict gas chromatographic retention indexes.     

A shortened algal growth potential test

The Algal Growth Potential Test has been an accepted standard test for measuring the bioavailability of nutrients in water bodies. A shortened seven day test has been developed, tested, and shown to have a strong correlation relationship with algal tests grown to maximum dry weight yields. The new test will save time in processing the samples and processing of test data.     

Nuchal translucency thickness and outcome in chromosome translocation diagnosed in the first trimester

In order to determine the significance of nuchal translucency thickness on the subsequent natural history of first-trimester fetuses with a chromosome translocation, seven consecutive cases diagnosed between 11 and 13 weeks of gestation were reviewed. Nuchal translucency measurements were successfully obtained before chorionic villus sampling (CVS) in all cases. Three fetuses had an unbalanced translocation and all were associated with increased nuchal translucency and multiple anomalies at the detailed second-trimester scan. There were no survivors in this group. The remaining four fetuses had a balanced translocation; all had normal nuchal translucency thickness and no structural anomalies were detected in the second trimester. Three of these fetuses were born at ≥35 weeks of gestation and were phenotypically normal. However, an unexpected single fetal demise occurred in a dichorionic twin pregnancy at 28 weeks of gestation. It is concluded that nuchal translucency measurements provide important prognostic information on pregnancy outcome in first-trimester fetuses with a chromosome translocation. In parents with a known balanced translocation, the detection of increased nuchal translucency at 11–14 weeks of gestation is associated with unbalanced translocations, structural anomalies and poor pregnancy outcome. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An overview of cross-sectional studies of mortality and air pollution and related statistical issues

A heuristic framework is developed for assessing statistical studies of air pollution and mortality which use the General Linear Model as a principal tool for analysis. Arrays that systematically compare the information of each study are introduced. In addition, a number of studies are contrasted against several statistical criteria to assess the reliability of the study results. Reliability is considered in terms of statistical estimation theory and practice. Finally, there is a discussion of several points of statistical contention which can affect the results of these studies. The conclusion is that statistical studies that use the General Linear Model have made limited use of available methods and tests. Several issues are raised which will require additional research.