Lattice-based methods for regression and density estimation on complicated multidimensional regions

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - This paper illustrates the use of diffusion kernels to estimate smooth density and regression functions defined on highly complex domains. We generalize...     

Progress in the ecology and conservation of giant pandas

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) conservation is a possible success story in the making. If extinction of this iconic endangered species can be avoided, the species will become a showcase program for the Chinese government and its collaborators. We reviewed the major advancements in ecological science for the giant panda, examining how these advancements have contributed to panda conservation. Pandas’ morphological and behavioral adaptations to a diet of bamboo, which bear strong influence on movement ecology, have been well studied, providing knowledge to guide management actions ranging from reserve design to climate change mitigation. Foraging ecology has also provided essential information used in the creation of landscape models of panda habitat. Because habitat loss and fragmentation are major drivers of the panda population decline, efforts have been made to help identify core habitat areas, establish where habitat corridors are needed, and prioritize areas for protection and restoration. Thus, habitat models have provided guidance for the Chinese governments’ creation of 67 protected areas. Behavioral research has revealed a complex and efficient communication system and documented the need for protection of habitat that serves as a communication platform for bringing the sexes together for mating. Further research shows that den sites in old‐growth forests may be a limiting resource, indicating potential value in providing alternative den sites for rearing offspring. Advancements in molecular ecology have been revolutionary and have been applied to population census, determining population structure and genetic diversity, evaluating connectivity following habitat fragmentation, and understanding dispersal patterns. These advancements form a foundation for increasing the application of adaptive management approaches to move panda conservation forward more rapidly. Although the Chinese government has made great progress in setting aside protected areas, future emphasis will be improved management of pandas and their habitat.     

Morbidity and pollution: Model specification analysis for time-series data on hospital admissions

Time-series analysis of effects of pollutants on emergency hospital admissions indicates important synergistic interactions among pollutants and to a lesser degree nonlinearities in effects of single pollutants. Comparisons of alternative econometric specifications are made to determine the appropriateness of incorporating nonuniform pollution impacts. The data substantially support the existence of synergisms among pollutants with high levels of sulfur dioxide, SO₂ (particulates), increasing the impact of particulates (SO₂) on emergency hospital admissions. Marginal effects of either pollutant are, however, small at current ambient air quality levels. These results indicate that damage estimates were likely to be understated during the 1960's when pollution levels were high, while, at current levels of those pollutants considered here, marginal damages are lower than would be estimated in studies failing to incorporate synergistic and nonlinear impacts.     

Potential Effects of a Forest Management Plan on Bachman's Sparrows (Aimophila aestivalis): Linking a Spatially Explicit Model with GIS

By combining a spatially explicit, individual-based population simulation model with a geographic information system, we have simulated the potential effects of a U.S. Forest Service management plan on the population dynamics of Bachman's Sparrow ( Aimophila aestivalis ) at the Savannah River Site, a U.S. Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. Although the Forest Service's management plan explicitly sets management goals for many species, most of the prescribed management strategy deals with the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker ( Picoides borealis ) because of legal requirements. We explored how a species (the sparrow) that is not the target of specific management strategies but that shares some habitat requirements with the woodpecker, would fare under the management plan. We found that the major components of the proposed management plan may allow the sparrow population to reach and exceed the minimum management goal set for this species, but only after a substantial initial decline in sparrow numbers and a prolonged transition period. In the model, the sparrow population dynamics were most sensitive to demographic variables such as adult and juvenile survivorship and to landscape variables such as the suitability of young clearcuts and mature pine stands. Using various assumptions about habitat suitability, we estimated that the 50-year probability of population extinction is at least 5% or may be much higher if juvenile survivorship is low. We believe, however, that modest changes in the management plan might greatly increase the sparrow population and presumably decrease the probability of extinction. Our results suggest that management plans focusing on one or a few endangered species may potentially threaten other species of management concern. Spatially explicit population models are a useful tool in designing modifications of management plans that can reduce the impact on nontarget species of management concern.     

Broad-band versus narrow-band irradiance for estimating latitude by archival tags

The relative effectiveness of different bands of irradiance to estimate the latitude of archival tags was evaluated. These tags are placed on fishes in order to describe their movements during long distance migrations. Measurements were recorded of broad-band irradiance with and without a cosine collector and narrow-band irradiance of seven narrow bands with 50% attenuation 30 nm on either side of their central wavelength of 400 (violet), 450 (blue), 500 (blue–green), 550 (green), 600 (yellow), 650 (orange), and 700 nm (red). A holographic, cosine collector was used to reduce the vertical transmission of irradiance to the sensor and to increase horizontal transmission of irradiance so the sensor detected more of the diffuse irradiance penetrating the water at dawn and dusk. Daily measurements were made during seven periods of 1–2 days each, beginning 28 June (after 21 June solstice) and ending on 6 October 1999 (after September 23 equinox) of submarine irradiance at 15-s intervals at a fixed depth (10 m) and location (38.31°N; 123.08°W) in Horseshoe Cove, California. Irradiance transmission at this site is intermediate between the clearest offshore waters, where blue irradiance (450 nm) penetrates farther with depth than green irradiance (550 nm) and most oceanic and coastal waters, where green penetrates farther than blue irradiance. Two algorithms were used to estimate latitude, the maximum slope method and the maximum logarithmic difference method. The broad-band, cosine-corrected light, excluding those deployments near the equinox when error is highest, produced an estimate of latitude of 38.30° for both methods and a latitudinal error of ±34.4 km for the former and ±27.2 km for the latter. The mean latitudinal error for non-cosine-collected, broad-band irradiance was ±190.9 km, using the slope algorithm and ±184.8 km using the difference algorithm. The blue band of irradiance, which attenuates least with increasing depth in clear, oceanic water, also produced a comparatively high-latitudinal error of ±163.8 km error for the former algorithm and ±170.4 km for the latter algorithm. Tag designers should consider using cosine-collectors over the irradiance sensors on their archival tags to increase the accuracy of position estimates.     

Do helpers increase reproductive success?

Summary Although several different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the evolution of helping behavior, most are based on the assumption that helping enhances the reproductive success of recipient breeders. I tested this assumption by removal experiments in the cooperatively breeding Florida scrub jay (Aphelocoma c. coerulescens). This species lives in permanently territorial social units containing a single breeding pair and none to six nonbreeders, which are usually offspring of the breeding pair and which usually act as helpers by feeding the nestlings and fledglings produced by the breeding pair. Although experimental removals of non-breeders in 1987–1988 had no significant effect on breeder survival, egg production, or hatching success, experimental groups suffered higher rates of predation on nestlings (1987) and lower rates of fledgling survival (both years) than did unmanipulated controls. As a result, experimental groups produced an average of only 0.56 independent juveniles, compared to 1.62 young for controls. Analysis of the factors contributing to nestling and fledgling mortality indicates that helping behavior per se (i.e., the aid that nonbreeders provide to dependent young), not the mere presence of nonbreeders, was responsible for the greater reproductive success observed in control groups. Because survival rates of allofeeders (i.e., those nonbreeders that provisioned dependent young) were virtually identical to those of non-allofeeders, the costs of helping behavior in this species appear to be small. Furthermore, nonbreeders are more likely to provision dependent young within their social unit when those young are closely related. I therefore conclude that nonbreeders increase their indirect fitness by serving as helpers and that helping behavior in the Florida scrub jay is a trait that has current selective utility. It remains debatable, however, whether helping in this species is an adaptation that has been shaped by the process of natural selection.     

The geochemistry of iodine — a review

Iodine has long been recognised as an important element environmentally. Despite this there are many gaps in our knowledge of its geochemistry and even where information is available much of this is based on old data which, in the light of recent data, are suspect.Iodine forms few independent minerals and is unlikely to enter most rock-forming minerals. In igneous rocks its concentration is fairly uniform and averages 0.24 mg/kg. Sedimentary rocks tend to have higher concentrations with average iodine contents of:-recent sediments 5–200 mg/kg, carbonates 2.7 mg/kg, shales 2.3 mg/kg and sandstones 0.8 mg/kg. Organic-rich sediments are particularly enriched in iodine.Soils, generally, are much richer in iodine than the parent rocks with the actual level being decided mainly by soil type and locality. Little soil iodine is water-soluble and much iodine is thought to be associated with organic matter, clays and aluminium and iron oxides. Most iodine in soils is derived from the atmosphere where, in turn, it has been derived from the oceans. Seawater has a mean iodine content of 58 g/L, while non-saline surface waters have lower and very variable levels. Subsurface brines and mineral waters are generally strongly enriched in iodine.Marine plants are frequently enriched in iodine while terrestrial plants have generally low contents. Iodine is essential for all mammals.Consideration of the geochemical cycle of iodine reveals that its transfer from the oceans to the atmosphere is probably the most important process in its geochemistry.     

Biological markets: supply and demand determine the effect of partner choice in cooperation,mutualism and mating

The formation of collaborating pairs by individuals belonging to two different classes occurs in the contexts of reproduction and intea-specific cooperation as well as of inter-specific mutualism. There is potential for partner choice and for competition for access to preferred partners in all three contexts. These selective forces have long been recognised as important in sexual selection, but their impact is not yet appreciated in cooperative and mutualistic systems. The formation of partnerships between members of different classes has much in common with the conclusion of trade agreements in human markets with two classes of traders, like producers and consumers, or employers and employees. Similar game-theoretical models can be used to predict the behaviour of rational traders in human markets and the evolutionarily stable strategies used in biological markets. We present a formal model in which the influence of the market mechanism on selection is made explicit. We restrict ourselves to biological markets in which: (1) Individuals do not compete over access to partners in an agonistic manner, but rather by outcompeting each other in those aspects that are preferred by the choosing party. (2) The commodity the partner has to offer cannot be obtained by the use of force, but requires the consent of the partner. These two restrictions ensure a dominant role for partner choice in the formation of partnerships. In a biological market model the decision to cooperate is based on the comparison between the offers of several potential partners, rather than on the behaviour of a single potential partner, as is implicitly assumed in currently accepted models of cooperation. In our example the members of one class A offer a commodity of fixed value in exchange for a commodity of variable value supplied by the other class, B. We show that when the B-class outnumbers the A-class sufficiently and the cost for the A-class to sample the offers of the B-class are low, the choosiness of the A-class will lead to selection for the supply of high value commodities by the B-class (Fig. 3a). Under the same market conditions, but with a high sampling cost this may still be the evolutionariy stable outcome, but another pair of strategies proves to be stable too: relaxed choosiness of class A coupled with low value commodities supplied by class B (Fig. 3b). We give a number of examples of mating, cooperative and mutualistic markets that resemble the low sampling cost situation depicted in Fig. 3a.     

Cluster detection using Bayes factors from overparameterized cluster models

In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters. Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin.     

Independence, not conflict, characterizes dart-shooting and sperm exchange in a hermaphroditic snail

Although the sexes are united in hermaphrodites, conflict can still occur because the male and female functions have separate interests. We examined the evidence for conflict in the mating system of the terrestrial snail Cantareus aspersus (formerly Helix aspersa) where sharp, calcareous darts are ‘shot’ during courtship. We predicted that the use of the dart would either reflect or create conflict and this would be evident in either the courtship behavior or the transference of sperm. Previous studies demonstrated that the dart functions after sperm transfer to increase sperm survival. Using detailed observations of mating snails, we examined the factors that determine dart shooting order, the behavioral responses after being hit by a dart, the accuracy of dart shooting, and the allocation of sperm resources. We found that each dart was shot independently, and each animal appeared to be interested only in getting off the best possible shot, probably one that penetrates deeply near the genital pore. There is no evidence of mating conflict. Every snail transfers sperm to its partner, and the size of the donation does not depend on the success or failure of either snail’s dart shot. Although the receipt of a dart does not appear to cause harm, it may produce indirect costs due to the partial loss of control over fertilization. We conclude that mating in C. aspersus is a partnership in which independent actors demonstrate unconditional reciprocity during courtship and sperm transfer.