Besprechungen

The Science of Nature -     

Field-scale roles of density, temperature, nitrogen, and predation on aphid population dynamics

Robust analyses of noisy, stage-structured, irregularly spaced, field-scale data incorporating multiple sources of variability and nonlinear dynamics remain very limited, hindering understanding of how small-scale studies relate to large-scale population dynamics. We used a novel, complementary Bayesian and frequentist state-space model analysis to ask how density, temperature, plant nitrogen, and predators affect cotton aphid (Aphis gossypii) population dynamics in weekly data from 18 field-years and whether estimated effects are consistent with small-scale studies. We found clear roles of density and temperature but not of plant nitrogen or predators, for which Bayesian and frequentist evidence differed. However, overall predictability of field-scale dynamics remained low. This study demonstrates stage-structured state-space model analysis incorporating bottom-up, top-down, and density-dependent effects for within-season (nearly continuous time), nonlinear population dynamics. The analysis combines Bayesian posterior evidence with maximum-likelihood estimation and frequentist hypothesis testing using average one-step-ahead residuals.     

The influence of intraguild predation on prey suppression and prey release: a meta-analysis

Intraguild predation (IGP) occurs when one predator species consumes another predator species with whom it also competes for shared prey. One question of interest to ecologists is whether multiple predator species suppress prey populations more than a single predator species, and whether this result varies with the presence of IGP. We conducted a meta-analysis to examine this question, and others, regarding the effects of IGP on prey suppression. When predators can potentially consume one another (mutual IGP), prey suppression is greater in the presence of one predator species than in the presence of multiple predator species; however, this result was not found for assemblages with unidirectional or no IGP. With unidirectional IGP, intermediate predators were generally more effective than the top predator at suppressing the shared prey, in agreement with IGP theory. Adding a top predator to an assemblage generally caused prey to be released from predation, while adding an intermediate predator caused prey populations to be suppressed. However, the effects of adding a top or intermediate predator depended on the effectiveness of these predators when they were alone. Effects of IGP varied across different ecosystems (e.g., lentic, lotic, marine, terrestrial invertebrate, and terrestrial vertebrate), with the strongest patterns being driven by terrestrial invertebrates. Finally, although IGP theory is based on equilibrium conditions, data from short-term experiments can inform us about systems that are dominated by transient dynamics. Moreover, short-term experiments may be connected in some way to equilibrium models if the predator and prey densities used in experiments approximate the equilibrium densities in nature.     

Multiple plant exploiters on a shared host: testing for nonadditive effects on plant performance.

The combined impact of multiple plant parasites on plant performance can either be additive (the total damage equals the sum of the individual effects) or nonadditive (synergistic or antagonistic damage). Two statistical models are available for testing the independent (=additive) effects of two factors. Here we suggest that the natural history of the plant-parasite system should motivate the choice of a statistical model to test for additivity. Using in-field, manipulative experiments, we examined the interactions between the herbivorous mite Calacarus flagelliseta Fletchmann, De Moraes and Barbosa (Acari: Eriophyidae), the fungal pathogen Oidium caricae F. Noack (a powdery mildew), and their host plant Carica papaya L. in Hawaii. First, we found that herbivorous mites had a moderate negative effect on powdery mildew: when mites were absent, powdery mildew colonies were larger and more numerous. Second, we showed that each plant parasite, when evaluated alone, significantly reduced several measures of plant performance. Third, we found that the combined impact of mites and mildew on plant performance is mostly additive and, for a few variables, less than additive. Finally, we explored compensatory responses and found no evidence for nonlinearities in the relationship between plant performance and cumulative parasite impact. Plants are almost universally subject to attack by multiple herbivores and pathogens; thus a deeper understanding of how multiple plant parasites shape each other's population dynamics and plant performance is essential to understanding plant-parasite interactions.