Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Combined influence of food level and inoculation density on competition between <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anuraeopsis fissa</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus patulus</Emphasis> or <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus macracanthus</Emphasis> (Rotifera: Brachionidae)

We tested separately the effect of two taxonomically related rotifers (B. patulus and B. macracanthus) on the population dynamics of another species (A. fissa) at low (0.5 ×10 ⁶) and high food levels (1.5 × 10⁶ cells/ml of Chlorella vulgaris) using different inoculation densities (0–100%). We also quantified the impact of A. fissa on the two brachionid species. Regardless of the presence of the competing species, an increase in the availability of food led to increase in the abundances of the three rotifers. The population growth of B. patulus, B. macracanthus, or A. fissa was affected negatively when cultured together with another species. An increase in the initial density of any one of the competing species became advantageous to maintain a certain population size. At a low algal food level, B. patulus was able to suppress A. fissa more strongly than B. macracanthus. On the other hand, at a high food level, B. macracanthus suppressed the population of A. fissa more strongly than B. patulus. Peak population densities for A. fissa varied from about 150 to 1000 ind./ml, depending on food density and the presence of competitors. The rate of population increase (r) of A. fissa, B. patulus, and B. macracanthus increased with an increase in food availability but decreased with increasing initial density of the competitor. Both Brachionus spp. experienced negative growth rates in the presence of A. fissa, especially at a high initial density of the latter. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2007, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp. 381–390. The article was submitted by the authors in English.     

Assessment of the natural-cultural resources in Çanakkale for nature-based tourism

While the world is going into different tourism expectations, the tourism understanding in Turkey is defined as tourism in the sea-sand-sun triangle. However, it is possible to contribute to the income and local development of the indigenous people by developing nature-based tourism. Besides, with the sustainable use and preservation of the natural-cultural assets, the damage of the traditional tourism industry on the natural and cultural environment could be reduced. In this study, it is aimed to bring up the nature-based tourism concept in Çanakkale by evaluating the nature-based tourism industry in the general of Turkey and assessing the natural-cultural resources that Çanakkale comprehends. The most important areas that have a nature-based tourism potential in Çanakkale and the tourism activities that are most suitable for these areas have been determined.     

Coat color polymorphism in populations of the northern mole vole in the Ural Region

Collections made in the course of long-term field studies on ecology of the northern mole vole Ellobius talpinus Pall. in the Ural Region and neighboring areas (more than 2000 individuals from 24 points of the species range) were used to analyze geographic variation in its coat color (color morphs). On the basis of long-term observations (1985–1999) on marked animals from a polymorphic population (Kurtamyshskii raion, Kurgan oblast), the life spans of males and females and the dependence of life span on population density and structure were estimated in animals of different color morphs. Each color morph of E. talpinus was shown to have specific features of the seasonal dynamics of age structure and migrations.     

RESEARCH: Shrub Propagation Techniques for Biological Control of Invading Tree Species

Cornus stolonifera, Salix petiolaris, and Spiraea alba clones already located within the corridor of an electrical power line. To establish the efficiency of treatments, we examined the statistical differences of growth traits between species and treatments. An analysis of the effects of layering shows, after the first growth season, differences for all growth traits in only one species, Spiraea alba. After the second growth season, we observed the development of new aerial stems. Layering favors horizontal expansion of shrubs over height development. The third year after treatment, the effect of layering is reduced except for Cornus stolonifera, which continuously increases, as shown by the significant progression of the clone issued from the layer even five years after treatments. With the cutting back technique, we expected a distinct vertical growth of the shrubs at the expense of increasing the crown diameter. This technique would be best associated with the rejuvenation of clones, followed by a layering of new shoots to allow a horizontal expansion of the shrubs. Therefore, the formation of a dense shrub community by layering should be considered a valuable approach for the biological control of undesirable trees in powerline rights-of-way.     

Mikrobielle Sanierung von 2,4,6-Trinitrotoluol (TNT) kontaminierten Böden

Within the limits of a feasability study abouton-site bioremediation methods for TNT-contaminated soils, composting was chosen as a very promising and cheap method. This method was critically compared with those described in the literature and was primarily rated under ecotoxicological aspects. The investigated location is the former munition plant «Tanne» in the aerea of Clausthal-Zellerfeld in Lower Saxony, Germany. To estimate the autochtonic microflora, we assessed the number of aerobic heterotrophic bacteria and determined their respiration activity in soils. In addition, we isolated bacteria and examined their capacity to metabolize TNTin vitro. Both the amount of autochtonic microrganisms (4.7×10⁸ to 1.2×10¹⁰ colony forming units (cfu)/kg dryweight) as well as their respiration activity did not correlate with the concentrations of nitrotoluenes in the soils. With high contaminated soil (20 g TNT/kg dry weight) we carried out a small compost in the range of 10 liters. During 28 days of composting TNT-concentration decrease over 90% and only minor amounts of monoaminodinitrotoluenes were generated. However, an acidic pretreatment of the compost material at the end of the reaction showed that TNT could be partially resolved under these extreme conditions and that an ecotoxicological risk may still exist. Possible changes in the realization of the composting process in order to make sure that the contaminants are savely bound to the humin matrix are discussed.