Towards a Formal Framework of Vulnerability to Climate Change

There is confusion regarding the notion of “vulnerability” in the climate change scientific community. Recent research has identified a need for formalisation, which would support accurate communication and the elimination of misunderstandings that result from the use of ambiguous terminology. Moreover, a formal framework of vulnerability is a prerequisite for computational approaches to its assessment. This paper presents an attempt at developing such a formal framework. We see vulnerability as a relative concept in the sense that accurate statements about vulnerability are possible only if one clearly specifies (1) the entity that is vulnerable, (2) the stimulus to which it is vulnerable and (3) the preference criteria to evaluate the outcome of the interaction between the entity and the stimulus. We relate the resulting framework to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change conceptualisation of vulnerability and two recent vulnerability studies. This paper is dedicated to the memory of Gerhard Petschel-Held, whose pioneering work on syndromes of global change has been a source of inspiration for us and for others across various schools of thought on vulnerability.     

Spectroscopic and wet chemical characterization of solid waste organic matter of different age in landfill sites, southern Germany

Landfill sites are potential sources of hazardous emissions by degradation and transformation processes of waste organic matter. Its chemical composition and microbial degradability are key factors for risk management, after-care, and estimation of potential emissions. The aim of the study is to provide information about composition and extent of transformation of waste organic matter in four landfill sites in Bavaria, Southern Germany by means of (13)C NMR spectroscopy, acid-hydrolyzable carbohydrates, chloroform-methanol extractable lipids, acid-hydrolyzable proteins, and lignin compounds after CuO oxidation. Ten samples of about 20 to 25 yr, 15 to 20 yr, and 5 to 10 yr of deposition each were taken at 2 m depth intervals by grab drilling till 10-m depth. Increasing temperatures from about 15 degrees C at 2-m depth to >40 degrees C at 10-m depth are found at some of the sites, representing optimum conditions for mesophile methane bacteria. Moisture contents of 160 to 310 g kg(-1) (oven dry), however, provide limiting conditions for anaerobic biodecay. Spectroscopic and chemical variables generally indicate a low extent of biodegradation and transformation at all sites despite a considerable heterogeneity of the samples. Independent of the time and depth of deposition more than 50% of the carbohydrate fraction of the waste organic matter provide a high potential for methane emissions and on-site energy production. There was no significant accumulation of long-chain organic and aromatic compounds, and of lignin degradation products even after more than 25 yr of rotting indicating higher extent of decomposition or stabilization of the waste organic matter. Installation of seepage water cleaning and recirculation systems are recommended to increase suboptimal moisture contents with respect to microbial methanogenesis, energy production, and long-term stabilization of municipal solid waste.     

Photo-Fenton treatment of water containing natural phenolic pollutants

Phenolic compounds are known to be present in high concentrations in various types of agro-industrial wastes. As they are highly biorecalcitrant, the possibility of treatment by advanced oxidation processes should be investigated. In this work, six model phenolic compounds (vanillin, protocatechuic acid, syringic acid, p-coumaric acid, gallic acid and L-tyrosine) were chosen for a demonstration of degradation by photo-Fenton reaction, under artificial light in laboratory experiments in Vienna and under sunlight in pilot-plant experiments at the Plataforma Solar de Almería in Spain. All compounds were completely mineralised. No non-degradable intermediates were produced, either in experiments with single substances or in a more complex matrix of a mixture of phenolic compounds. The expected selectivity of the photo-Fenton reaction for aromatic compounds was proven by comparison of the decrease in total organic carbon with the removal of total phenolic content.     

Non-invasive measurement of the physiological stress response of wild rabbits to the odour of a predator

Summary. Stress has been widely studied in different mammals, but the physiological stress reaction that the odour of a predator could induce in preys has not received much attention. Besides, not all the animals would respond to the same extent to a known stressor. We developed an experimental procedure with eleven na?ve European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in order to determine the individual physiological response to the olfactory detection of a potential predator. The rabbits were housed singly in small enclosures with a concrete burrow system and food and water were available ad libitum. The animals followed a control trial, without odour, and an experimental trial where we confronted the rabbits with fox (Vulpes vulpes) odour. Furthermore, another sample of eleven rabbits followed a control procedure subjected to the same housing and handling procedures but without facing the predator odour. In order to assess the physiological response we analysed the concentration of glucocorticoid metabolites in the faeces of the rabbits. Therefore, everyday faecal samples were collected and analysed with an enzyme immunoassay in order to measure the corticosterone metabolites (CM), particularly, those metabolites with a 5α-3β, 11β-diol structure. After validating the assay for wild rabbits, we found that the simulated presence of a predator (fox odour) in the enclosure resulted in an increase in faecal CM concentrations. However, the stressor did not affect all the animals in the same way. We found a general increase in the individual differences. In particular, males experienced a higher increase than females, though the overall response was similar for both sexes. To our knowledge this is one of the first attempts to analyse the assessment of the risk of predation by means of non-invasive methods.     

The effects of social support on nuclear worker responses to the Three Mile Island accident

This study examines the effects of social support on the reactions of nuclear workers at the Three Mile Island plant and a comparison site to stress during the 1979 crisis. Results show broad main effects of social support on stress, strain, and health outcome variables. Moderating effects of support are highly selective and become less extensive as the hypothesized stress process moves from stress to strain to health outcomes. Findings are compared between the two nuclear plants and with other studies conducted under non-crisis conditions.     

Harnessing Ecosystem Models and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Support of Forest Management

The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.     

The potential environmental response to increasing ocean alkalinity for negative emissions

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - The negative emissions technology, artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA), aims to store atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the ocean by...     

Modeling primary and secondary fractionation effects and atmospheric transport of polychlorinated biphenyls through single-source emissions

The Chinese Gridded Industrial Pollutants Emission and Residue Model (ChnGIPERM) was used to investigate potential fractionation effects and atmospheric transport of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) derived from single-source emissions in China. Modeling the indicative PCBs (CB28, CB101, CB153, and CB180) revealed spatiotemporal trends in atmospheric transport, gas/particle partitioning, and primary and secondary fractionation effects. These included the inference that the Westerlies and East Asian monsoons affect atmospheric transport patterns of PCBs by influencing the atmospheric transport time (ATT). In this study, dispersion pathways with long ATTs in winter tended to have short ones in summer and vice versa. The modeled partitioning of PCB congeners between gas and particles was mainly controlled by temperature, which can further influence the ATT. The potential for primary and secondary fractionation was explored by means of numerical simulations with single-source emissions. Within ChnGIPERM, these phenomena were mainly controlled by the temperature and soil organic carbon content. The secondary fractionation of PCBs is a slow process, with model results suggesting a timescale of several decades.

     

Risk assessment of the use of PAS100 green composts in sheep and cattle production in Scotland

A generalized quantitative risk assessment for the use of source-segregated green waste (SSGW) compost use in livestock production is presented. This assessment focussed on potential risks associated with a specific product, PAS100 compost that meets the UK publicly available specification 100 and represents the majority of compost available for use in extensive Scottish livestock systems. A hazard screening approach was used to identify all potentially hazardous agents present in compost. A total of 497 potentially hazardous agents were screened, with 147 finally put forward for quantitative risk assessment. Scenarios modelled in the assessment included surface application of compost to grazing land and also incorporation into soil and subsequent uptake by fodder crops. Risk estimates were compared to those associated with six comparator materials, including various sludges, slurries and farm yard manures. Overall, five potentially hazardous agents (PCB28, PCB138, PCB153, 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD, Clopyralid) returned a hazard quotient >1 but within margins of uncertainty, indicating that further investigation may be required. Within the limitations of available information, SSGW compost was found to pose less risk to grazing livestock, or the environment, than other commonly-used soil amendments. While this assessment relates to a specific product/standard used in the UK, the methodology could easily be applied to other composts/products/situations. Therefore these results have wider applicability.