ESTIMATING THE Q100 IN BRITISH COLUMBIA: A PRACTICAL PROBLEM IN FOREST HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT. Estimates of peak flows, with specified return periods, are needed in practice for the design of works that affect streams in forested areas. In the province of British Columbia (B.C.), Canada, the new Forest Practices Code specifies the 100-year instantaneous peak flow (Q100) for the design of bridges and culverts for stream crossings under forest roads; and many practitioners are engaged in making such estimates. The state of the art is still quite primitive, very similar to the state of urban hydrology 30 years ago, when popular estimating techniques were used with little consideration given to their applicability. Urban hydrology then evolved on a much more scientific basis, such that within about a 10-year period, standard approaches to design were developed. Forest hydrology should follow the same pattern, at least as far as estimating design flows is concerned. Popular present day design procedures include the rational method and other empirical approaches based on rainfall data, as use of the standard flood frequency approach is limited by the paucity of relevant flow data. Estimating procedures based on peak streamflow measurements and statistics are likely to evolve, and these will include distinctions for rain, snowmelt, and rain on snow floods. Guidelines will also be developed for selecting and applying appropriate procedures for particular areas.     

Mark-recapture estimators for dual frame population size of prominent nesting structures: the effect of uncertain detection probability

The combined mark-recapture and line transect sampling methodology proposed by Alpizar-Jara and Pollock [Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 3(4), 311–327, 1996; In Marine Mammal Survey and Assessment Methods Symposium. G.W. Garner, S.C. Amstrup, J.L. Laake, B.F.J. Manly, L.L. McDonald, and D.C. Robertson (Eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 99–114, 1999] is used to illustrate the estimation of population size for populations with prominent nesting structures (i.e., bald eagle nests). In the context of a bald eagle population, the number of nests in a list frame corresponds to a pre-marked sample of nests, and an area frame corresponds to a set of transect strips that could be regularly monitored. Unlike previous methods based on dual frame methodology using the screening estimator [Haines and Pollock (Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5, 245–256, 1998a; Survey Methodology, 24(1), 79–88, 1998b)], we no longer need to assume that the area frame is complete (i.e., all the nests in the sampled sites do not need to be seen). One may use line transect sampling to estimate the probability of detection in a sampled area. Combining information from list and area frames provides more efficient estimators than those obtained by using data from only one frame. We derive an estimator for detection probability and generalize the screening estimator. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the Chapman modification of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator to the screening estimator. Simulation results show that although the Chapman estimator is generally less precise than the screening estimator, the latter can be severely biased in presence of uncertain detection. The screening estimator outperforms the Chapman estimator in terms of mean squared error when detection probability is near 1 wheareas the Chapman estimator outperforms the screening estimator when detection probability is lower than a certain threshold value depending on particular scenarios.     

Spatial PM2.5 mobile source impacts using a calibrated indicator method

Motor vehicles are major sources of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and the PM_2.5 from mobile vehicles is associated with adverse health effects. Traditional methods for estimating source impacts that employ receptor models are limited by the availability of observational data. To better estimate temporally and spatially resolved mobile source impacts on PM_2.5, we developed an approach based on a method that uses elemental carbon (EC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) measurements as an indicator of mobile source impacts. We extended the original integrated mobile source indicator (IMSI) method in three aspects. First, we generated spatially resolved indicators using 24-hr average concentrations of EC, CO, and NO_x estimated at 4 km resolution by applying a method developed to fuse chemical transport model (Community Multiscale Air Quality Model [CMAQ]) simulations and observations. Second, we used spatially resolved emissions instead of county-level emissions in the IMSI formulation. Third, we spatially calibrated the unitless indicators to annually-averaged mobile source impacts estimated by the receptor model Chemical Mass Balance (CMB). Daily total mobile source impacts on PM_2.5, as well as separate gasoline and diesel vehicle impacts, were estimated at 12 km resolution from 2002 to 2008 and 4 km resolution from 2008 to 2010 for Georgia. The total mobile and separate vehicle source impacts compared well with daily CMB results, with high temporal correlation (e.g., R ranges from 0.59 to 0.88 for total mobile sources with 4 km resolution at nine locations). The total mobile source impacts had higher correlation and lower error than the separate gasoline and diesel sources when compared with observation-based CMB estimates. Overall, the enhanced approach provides spatially resolved mobile source impacts that are similar to observation-based estimates and can be used to improve assessment of health effects.

Implications: An approach is developed based on an integrated mobile source indicator method to estimate spatiotemporal PM_2.5 mobile source impacts. The approach employs three air pollutant concentration fields that are readily simulated at 4 and 12 km resolutions, and is calibrated using PM_2.5 source apportionment modeling results to generate daily mobile source impacts in the state of Georgia. The estimated source impacts can be used in investigations of traffic pollution and health.     

PCDDs, PCDFs, PCBs and HCB in marine and estuarine sediments from Queensland, Australia.

Concentrations of 2,3,7,8-chlorine substituted PCDDs, PCDFs, selected PCB congeners and HCB were determined in sediment samples collected from sites along the east coast of Queensland in northern Australia. PCDDs were detectable in all sediment samples while PCDFs, PCBs and HCB were mainly found in sediment samples collected from sites in the Brisbane metropolitan area. The results provide evidence that an unidentified source for higher chlorinated PCDDs exists along the Queensland coast.     

Spatial inhomogeneity in pollutant concentrations, and their implications for air quality model evaluation

The Southern California Air Quality Study database provides a valuable resource with which to test urban-scale photochemical models and to achieve a better understanding of the atmospheric dynamics of pollutant formation. The CIT model was evaluated using the SCAQS database according to traditional model performance guidelines. A first application, reported previously, focused on model enhancement and application of the model to the 27–29 August 1987 episode. This study evaluates the CIT model using the 24–25 June SCAQS episode, providing further evaluation of the model. Results show that the CIT airshed model can follow the diurnal variations of reactive species and the transport for relatively unreactive species. The normalized gross error for ozone was 31 % in June compared to 38% in August. However, to fully judge model performance in proper perspective, a question arises: “How well do the measurements reflect the air quality surrounding the monitoring station, not just in that location?” This is an important but seldom quantitatively considered factor, not only in model evaluation but in the study of health effects as well. Analyses indicate that individual concentration measurements only approximately represent the true volume-averaged concentrations within a computational grid cell and that significant spatial variations exist. Thus any evaluation of models using these data sets should take these local variations into consideration. A series of tests found that the local inhomogeneities had a normalized gross error in the range of 25–45% depending on the pollutant. In this context, the performance of the CIT model is consistent with known modeling limitations such as emissions inventories and sub-grid scale variation of observations.     

Assessing the recovery of lakes in southeastern Canada from the effects of acidic deposition

Reductions in North American sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions promoted expectations that aquatic ecosystems in southeastern Canada would soon recover from acidification. Only lakes located near smelters that have dramatically reduced emissions approach this expectation. Lakes in the Atlantic provinces, Quebec and Ontario affected only by long-range sources show a general decline in sulfate (SO4(2-)) concentrations, but with a relatively smaller compensating increase in pH or alkalinity. Several factors may contribute to the constrained (or most likely delayed) acidity response: declining base cation concentrations, drought-induced mobilization of SO4(2-), damaged internal alkalinity generation mechanisms, and perhaps increasing nitrate or organic anion levels. Monitoring to detect biological recovery in southeastern Canada is extremely limited, but where it occurs, there is little evidence of recovery outside of the Sudbury/Killarney area. Both the occurrence of Atlantic salmon in Nova Scotia rivers and the breeding success of Common Loons in Ontario lakes are in fact declining although factors beyond acidification also play a role. Chemical and biological models predict that much greater SO2 emission reductions than those presently required by legislation will be needed to promote widespread chemical and latterly, biological recovery. It may be unrealistic to expect that pre-industrial chemical and biological conditions can ever be reestablished in many lakes of southeastern Canada.     

Remote monitoring of vibrational information in spider webs

Spiders are fascinating model species to study information-acquisition strategies, with the web acting as an extension of the animal’s body. Here, we compare the strategies of two orb-weaving spiders that acquire information through vibrations transmitted and filtered in the web. Whereas Araneus diadematus monitors web vibration directly on the web, Zygiella x-notata uses a signal thread to remotely monitor web vibration from a retreat, which gives added protection. We assess the implications of these two information-acquisition strategies on the quality of vibration information transfer, using laser Doppler vibrometry to measure vibrations of real webs and finite element analysis in computer models of webs. We observed that the signal thread imposed no biologically relevant time penalty for vibration propagation. However, loss of energy (attenuation) was a cost associated with remote monitoring via a signal thread. The findings have implications for the biological use of vibrations by spiders, including the mechanisms to locate and discriminate between vibration sources. We show that orb-weaver spiders are fascinating examples of organisms that modify their physical environment to shape their information-acquisition strategy.     

EVALUATION OF ROSGEN'S STREAMBANK EROSION POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA1

ABSTRACT: In this study three components of the Rosgen Level III Stream Reach Condition Assessment were tested for their ability to predict short-term erosion rates. Rosgen's bank erosion potential (BEP) ratings and near bank stress (NBS) estimates and the Pfankuch channel stability ratings were evaluated. Thirty-six banks with a range of BEP ratings and NBS estimates were selected on the 101 km Upper Illinois River in northeast Oklahoma. The Upper Illinois River is a meandering, gravel-dominated, riffle/pool channel. Cumulative erosion data measured with bank pins after four 2.0 to 2.5-year return period flows from September 1996 to July 1997 were used in the analyses. When integrated as indicated in Rosgen (1996), the BEP indices and NBS estimates were poor predictors of bank erosion. Individually, the grouped BEP ratings and Pfankuch ratings performed relatively well compared to grouped NBS estimates in predicting erosion; however, the variability of erosion was large within each rating group. Linear regression between erosion and BEP numerical indices and Pfankuch scores was significant (a = 0.05), but variability was high (illustrated by low r² values). Regression between erosion and NBS estimates was not significant.     

Protégé selection by mentors: what makes the difference?

This study examined protégé characteristics that mentors reported were most influential when choosing a protégé. Based on existing research, two variables were identified related to protégé selection: perceptions regarding the protégé's potential/ability and perceptions regarding the protégé's need for help. The relationships of these two factors with perceived barriers to mentoring others, mentor advancement aspirations, and mentor gender were investigated. Data from 282 mentors revealed that mentors were more likely to choose a protégé based on perceptions regarding the protégé's ability/potential than based on perceptions regarding the protégé's need for help. Additionally, women were more likely to choose a protégé based on the protégé's perceived ability than were men. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.