Securing the Demographic and Genetic Future of Tuatara through Assisted Colonization

Abstract: Climate change poses a particular threat to species with fragmented distributions and little or no capacity to migrate. Assisted colonization, moving species into regions where they have not previously occurred, aims to establish populations where they are expected to survive as climatic envelopes shift. However, adaptation to the source environment may affect whether species successfully establish in new regions. Assisted colonization has spurred debate among conservation biologists and ecologists over whether the potential benefits to the threatened species outweigh the potential disruption to recipient communities. In our opinion, the debate has been distracted by controversial examples, rather than cases where assisted colonization may be a viable strategy. We present a strategic plan for the assisted migration of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus), an endemic New Zealand reptile. The plan includes use of extant populations as reference points for comparisons with assisted‐colonization populations with respect to demography, phenotypic plasticity, and phenology; optimization of genetic variation; research to fill knowledge gaps; consideration of host and recipient communities; and inclusion of stakeholders in the planning stage. When strategically planned and monitored, assisted colonization could meet conservation and research goals and ultimately result in the establishment of long‐term sustainable populations capable of persisting during rapid changes in climate.     

Roles of Patch Characteristics,Drought Frequency,and Restoration in Long‐Term Trends of a Widespread Amphibian

Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long‐term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg‐mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state‐space and linear‐regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long‐term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change. Papeles de las Características del Fragmento, Frecuencia de Sequía y Restauración en las Tendencias a Largo Plazo de un Anfibio Ampliamente Distribuido     

Rethinking Crop Genetic Resource Conservation

Abstract: A worldwide system of crop germplasm conservation has been developed around ex situ preservation This system is based on a dual mandate of conservation and development; and it has largely ignored the farming systems that produce germplasm A revisionist critique of the existing system is presented Problems of the current strategy include incomplete collection loss within these collections, isolation from evolutionary processes, and budgetary constraints. In situ conservation offers an alternative to current methods, especially if conservation rather than development is the priority. The concept of genetic erosion is discussed and evaluated in light of recent evidence of uneven change in areas of crop diversity. Farmers in many parts of the world are conserving traditional varieties even as they modernize and adopt improved varieties. This pattern is illustrated by reference to Asian rice agriculture. A new approach to conservation is needed that builds a collaborative program between farmers, crop scientists, ecologists, biogeographers, and social scientists. A first step is to analyze farming systems that already conserve traditional crop varieties.     

Forests Too Deer: Edge Effects in Northern Wisconsin

Abstract: Browsing by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) can profoundly affect the abundance and population structure of several woody and herbaceous plant species. Enclosure studies and population surveys reveal that past and current deer densities as low as 4 deer/km² may prevent regeneration of the once common woody species, Canada yew (Taxus canadensis), eastern hemlock (Tsuja canadensis), and white cedar Puja occidentalis), as well as several herbaceous species. Prior to European settlement, forests in northern Wisconsin contained relatively sparse deer populations (<4/km²), but extensive timber cutting in the late nineteenth century boosted deer populations. Continued habitat fragmentation resulting from scattered timber harvests and the creation of "wildlife openings" to improve deer forage maintain these high densities throughout much of the Northeast.
Because deer wander widely, the effects of high deer densities penetrate deeply into remaining stands of old and mature forest, greatly modifying their composition Thus, abundant early successional and "edge" habitat, and the high deer densities they engender, represent significant external threats to these plant communities. We hypothesize that establishing large (200–400 km²) continuous areas of maturing forest, especially in conjunction with increased hunting, could reduce local deer densities and so provide a simple and inexpensive method for retaining species sensitive to the deleterious effects of browsing.     

Public Preferences for Compensatory Mitigation of Salt Marsh Losses: a Contingent Choice of Alternatives

Abstract:  Human activities continue to eliminate or degrade wetlands that provide rich habitat for many species. Compensatory mitigation, including creation of new wetlands, restoration of previously degraded wetlands, or preservation of existing wetlands, is one policy option that seeks to maintain no net loss of wetland habitat. Public support of wetland mitigation is essential because the public incurs the cost for many mitigation projects in the form of higher taxes. Therefore, public preferences should be considered when decisions are made about wetland mitigation options. We used a contingent-choice survey in Rhode Island to identify factors affecting public support for different types of compensatory wetland mitigation. Results were based on 640 survey responses. The amount of wetland lost during the original development project had no significant effect on the preferred mitigation alternative. Preferences for preservation, restoration, and no-action alternatives varied according to respondents' gender, education, and income. Certain general considerations applied, however, regardless of mitigation type. Respondents were willing to incur increases in taxes and fees for most mitigation projects. The larger the mitigation project and the lower the cost, the more likely it was to gain public support. The presence of endangered species contributed to public support, but less significantly than public access. Public access can be critical to public support, particularly if the size of the wetland is small or the cost is high. If the cost of providing public access, such as a boardwalk or viewing tower, is relatively small, the gain in public support for mitigation expenditures may well allow a substantial expansion of the area involved in mitigation projects and thus a greater increase in the amount of habitat conservation.     

Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions

Abstract:  Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8° C, projected a best guess of 400–550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1° C warming) to 30.0% (6.4° C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100–500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.     

Effects of Forest Management on Amphibians and Reptiles in Missouri Ozark Forests

Abstract:  As part of the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project (MOFEP), we experimentally evaluated the impacts of forest management on the relative abundance of amphibians and reptiles in Missouri's Ozark forests (U.S.A.). Using large study sites (average size of 400 ha) as the experimental unit, we tested the effects of uneven-aged and even-aged forest management treatments compared with no-harvest management (i.e., control) on the relative abundance of 13 focal amphibian and reptile species. Within even-aged management sites, we also focused on the local-scale effects of clearcutting on these species by comparing relative abundance among plots located within clearcut stands, 50 m away from clearcut stands, and 200 m away from clearcut stands. Pretreatment sampling of species abundance occurred from 1992 through 1995, and post-treatment sampling occurred from 1997 through 2000. At the landscape scale, treatment significantly affected the abundance of Bufo americanus . This species declined less on even-aged management sites than on control sites, but the general decline on all sites suggests that other factors may have contributed to this result. Within even-aged management sites, most amphibian species declined and some reptile species increased relative to pretreatment abundances within clearcut stands. We found significant effects of distance from clearcut for two amphibian species, Ambystoma maculatum and Rana clamitans, and two reptile species, Scincella lateralis and Sceloporus undulatus . In general, we conclude that clearcuts within even-aged management sites locally affected amphibian and reptile species but, at a larger spatial scale, we did not detect significant effects of even-aged and uneven-aged forest management. These findings represent relatively short-term data but suggest that forest management and maintenance of biodiversity may be compatible when relatively small amounts of the landscape are disturbed.     

Patterns of Nest Predation on Artificial and Natural Nests in Forests

Abstract:  Artificial nest experiments have been used in an attempt to understand patterns of predation affecting natural nests. A growing body of literature suggests that neither relative rates nor patterns of predation are the same for artificial and natural nests. We studied nest predation and daily mortality rates and patterns at real and artificial ground and shrub nests to test the validity of artificial nest experiments. We monitored 1667 artificial and 344 natural nests, over seven trials, in three regions, across 58 sites in Ontario. We controlled for many of the factors thought to be responsible for previously reported differences between predation rates on natural and artificial nests. Although artificial nests in our study resembled natural nests, contained eggs of appropriate size, shape, and color of target bird species, and were placed in similar microhabitats as natural nests, the rates of predation on these nests did not parallel rates on natural nests for any region in terms of absolute rate or pattern. Predation rates on artificial nests did not vary between years, as they tended to for natural nests, and the magnitude of predation pressure on artificial ground nests compared with shrub nests did not show the same pattern as that on natural nests. In general, rates of predation on artificial nests were significantly higher than on natural nests. Our results suggest that conclusions derived from artificial nest studies may be unfounded. Given that many influential ideas in predation theory are based on results of artificial nest experiments, it may be time to redo these experiments with natural nests.