Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Trajectories of change in sagebrush steppe vegetation communities in relation to multiple wildfires

Repeated perturbations, both biotic and abiotic, can lead to fundamental changes in the nature of ecosystems, including changes in state. Sagebrush steppe communities provide important habitat for wildlife and grazing for livestock. Fire is an integral part of these systems, but there is concern that increased ignition frequencies and invasive species are fundamentally altering them. Despite these issues, the majority of studies of fire effects in systems dominated by Artemisia tridentata wyomingensis have focused on the effects of single burns. The Arid Lands Ecology Reserve (ALE), in south-central Washington (U.S.A.), was one of the largest contiguous areas of sagebrush steppe habitat in the state until large wildfires burned the majority of it in 2000 and 2007. We analyzed data from permanent vegetation transects established in 1996 and resampled in 2002 and 2009. Our objective was to describe how the fires, and subsequent postfire restoration efforts, affected communities' successional pathways. Plant communities differed in response to repeated fire and restoration; these differences could largely be ascribed to the functional traits of the dominant species. Low-elevation communities, previously dominated by obligate seeders, moved furthest from their initial composition and were dominated by weedy, early-successional species in 2009. Higher-elevation sites with resprouting shrubs, native bunchgrasses, and few invasive species were generally more resilient to the effects of repeated disturbances. Shrub cover has been almost entirely removed from ALE, although there was some recovery where communities were dominated by resprouters. Bromus tectorum dominance was reduced by herbicide application in areas where it was previously abundant, but it increased significantly in untreated areas. Several resprouting species, notably Phlox longifolia and Poa secunda, expanded remarkably following competitive release from shrub canopies and/or abundant B. tectorum. Our results suggest that community dynamics can be understood through a state and transition model with two axes (shrub/grass and native/invasive abundance), although such models also need to account for differences in plant functional traits and disturbance regimes. We use our results to develop a conceptual model that will be validated with further research.     

Large carnivore hunting and the social license to hunt

The social license to operate framework considers how society grants or withholds informal permission for resource extractors to exploit publicly owned resources. We developed a modified model, which we refer to as the social license to hunt (SLH). In it we similarly consider hunters as operators, given that wildlife are legally considered public resources in North America and Europe. We applied the SLH model to examine the controversial hunting of large carnivores, which are frequently killed for trophies. Killing for trophies is widespread, but undertaken by a minority of hunters, and can pose threats to the SLH for trophy-seeking carnivore hunters and potentially beyond. Societal opposition to large carnivore hunting relates not only to conservation concerns but also to misalignment between killing for trophies and dominant public values and attitudes concerning the treatment of animals. We summarized cases related to the killing of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), wolves (Canis lupus), and other large carnivores in Canada, the United States, and Europe to illustrate how opposition to large carnivore hunting, now expressed primarily on social media, can exert rapid and significant pressure on policy makers and politicians. Evidence of the potential for transformative change to wildlife management and conservation includes proposed and realized changes to legislation, business practice, and wildlife policy, including the banning of some large carnivore hunts. Given that policy is ultimately shaped by societal values and attitudes, research gaps include developing increased insight into public support of various hunting policies beyond that derived from monitoring of social media and public polling. Informed by increased evidence, the SLH model can provide a conceptual foundation for predicting the likelihood of transient versus enduring changes to wildlife conservation policy and practice for a wide variety of taxa and contexts.     

Ethics and governance for internet-based conservation science research

Internet-based research is increasingly important for conservation science and has wide-ranging applications and contexts, including culturomics, illegal wildlife trade, and citizen science. However, online research methods pose a range of ethical and legal challenges. Online data may be protected by copyright, database rights, or contract law. Privacy rights may also restrict the use and access of data, as well as ethical requirements from institutions. Online data have real-world meaning, and the ethical treatment of individuals and communities must not be marginalized when conducting internet-based research. As ethics frameworks originally developed for biomedical applications are inadequate for these methods, we propose that research activities involving the analysis of preexisting online data be treated analogous to offline social science methods, in particular, nondeceptive covert observation. By treating internet users and their data with respect and due consideration, conservationists can uphold the public trust needed to effectively address real-world issues.     

Temporal, spatial, and between-host comparisons of patterns of parasitism in lake zooplankton

In nature, multiple parasite species infect multiple host species and are influenced by processes operating across different spatial and temporal scales. Data sets incorporating these complexities offer exciting opportunities to examine factors that shape epidemics. We present a method using generalized linear mixed models in a multilevel modeling framework to analyze patterns of variances and correlations in binomially distributed prevalence data. We then apply it to a multi-lake, multiyear data set involving two Daphnia host species and nine microparasite species. We found that the largest source of variation in parasite prevalence was the species identities of host-parasite pairs, indicating strong host-parasite specificity. Within host-parasite combinations, spatial variation (among lakes) exceeded interannual variation. This suggests that factors promoting differences among lakes (e.g., habitat characteristics and species interactions) better explain variation in peak infection prevalence in our data set than factors driving differences among years (e.g., climate). Prevalences of parasites in D. dentifera were more positively correlated than those for D. pulicaria, suggesting that similar factors influenced epidemic size among parasites in D. dentifera. Overall, this study demonstrates a method for parsing patterns of variation and covariation in infection prevalence data, providing greater insight into the relative importance of different underlying drivers of parasitism.     

How Stable are Public Responses to Changing Local Environments? A 'Before' and 'After' Case Study of River Restoration

This paper considers the stability of public responses to an urban river restoration scheme on the River Skerne, Darlington, UK, by comparing the results from surveys of local residents carried out before and after scheme implementation. This case study provides evidence of strong and generally consistent positive responses to the proposals and implemented scheme to return the straightened and channelized river to a more natural condition although support was more qualified after than before implementation. Although the scheme design and construction costs were high, nearly two-thirds regarded the scheme as value for money. Exploratory contingent valuation results on whether or not local residents were prepared to pay for the scheme were broadly stable over the two surveys.     

A GIS-based protocol for the collection and use of local knowledge in fisheries management planning

Despite a heavy reliance on scientific knowledge as the primary source of information in resource management, many resources are in decline, particularly in fisheries. To try and combat this trend, researchers have drawn upon the knowledge of local resource users as an important supplement to scientific knowledge in designing and implementing management strategies. The integration of local knowledge with scientific knowledge for marine species management, however, is problematic stemming primarily from conflicting data types. This paper considers the use of spatial information technology as a medium to integrate and visualise spatial distributions of both quantitative scientific data and qualitative local knowledge for the purposes of producing valid and locally relevant fisheries management plans. In this context, the paper presents a detailed protocol for the collection and subsequent use of local knowledge in fisheries management planning using geographic information systems (GIS). Particular attention is paid to the use of local knowledge in resource management, accuracy issues associated with the incorporation of qualitative data into a quantitative environment, base map selection and construction, and map bias or errors associated with the accuracy of recording harvest locations on paper map sheets, given the complications of map scale.     

Mercury in United Kingdom topsoils; concentrations, pools, and Critical Limit exceedances

The median total mercury concentration in 898 UK rural topsoils, sampled between 1998 and 2008, was 0.095 μg g⁻¹. Approximate adjustment for unreactive metal produced an estimate of 0.052 μg g⁻¹ for reactive Hg. The highest concentrations were in the north and west, where organic-rich soils with low bulk densities dominate, but the spatial pattern was quite different if soil Hg pools (mg m⁻²) were considered, the highest values being near to the industrial north of England and London. Possible toxic effects of Hg were best evaluated by comparison with soil Critical Limits expressed as ratios of Hg to soil organic matter, or soil solution Hg²⁺ concentrations, estimated by chemical speciation modelling. Only a few percent of the rural UK soils showed exceedance, and this also applied to rural soils from the whole of Europe. UK urban and industrial soils had higher Hg concentrations and more cases of exceedance.     

Impact of local traffic exclusion on near-road air quality: findings from the New York City "Summer Streets" campaign

We monitored curbside airborne particulate matter (PM) concentrations and its proinflammatory capacity during 3 weekends when vehicle traffic was excluded from Park. Ave., New York City. Fine PM concentration peaked in the morning regardless of traffic while ultrafine PM was 58% lower during mornings without traffic. Ultrafine PM concentration varied linearly with traffic flow, while fine PM spiked sharply in response to random traffic events that were weakly correlated with the traffic signal cycle. Ultrafine PM concentrations decayed exponentially with distance from a cross street with unrestricted traffic flow, reaching background levels within 100 m of the source. IL-6 induction was typically highest on Friday afternoons but showed no clear relationship to the presence of traffic. The coarse fraction (>2.5 μm) had the greatest intrinsic inflammatory capacity, suggesting that coarse PM still warrants attention even as the research focus is shifting to nano-particles.