ExSys-LOPA for the chemical process industry

The chemical process industries are characterized by the use, processing, and storage of large amounts of dangerous chemical substances and/or energy. Among different missions of chemical plants there are two very important ones, which: 1. provide a safe work environment, 2. fully protect the environment. These important missions can be achieved only by design of adequate safeguards for identified process hazards. Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) can successfully answer this question. This technique is a simplified process of quantitative risk assessment, using the order of magnitude categories for initiating cause frequency, consequence severity, and the likelihood of failure of independent protection layers to analyze and assess the risk of particular accident scenarios. LOPA requires application of qualitative hazard evaluation methods to identify accident scenarios, including initiating causes and appropriate safeguards. This can be well fulfilled, e.g., by HAZOP Studies or What-If Analysis. However, those techniques require extensive experience, efforts by teams of experts as well as significant time commitments, especially for complex chemical process units. In order to simplify that process, this paper presents another strategy that is a combination of an expert system for accident scenario identification with subsequent application of LOPA. The concept is called ExSys-LOPA, which employs, prepared in advance, values from engineering databases for identification of loss events specific to the selected target process and subsequently a accident scenario barrier model developed as an input for LOPA. Such consistent rules for the identification of accident scenarios to be analyzed can facilitate and expedite the analysis and thereby incorporate many more scenarios and analyze those for adequacy of the safeguards. An associated computer program is under development. The proposed technique supports and extends the Layer of Protection Analysis application, especially for safety assurance assessment of risk-based determination for the process industries. A case study concerning HF alkylation plant illustrates the proposed method.     

Bioaccumulation of platinum group metals on some fish species ( Oreochromis niloticus,Penaeus laspisulcates,Scylla serrate,Galaxias brevipinnis and Mollusc ) in the Pra estuary of Ghana

Catalytic converters have been designed to solve the problem of pollution from automobiles. However, recent studies have shown that the platinum group metals (PGMs) that are used in the design are being deposited alongside highways. The objective of this study was to measure the levels of PGMs that bioaccumulate in Oreochromis niloticus, Penaeus laspisulcates, Scylla serrate, Galaxias brevipinnis and Mollusc in the river Pra estuary along a major highway in Ghana. Chemical analysis using neutron activation analysis showed accumulation of the PGMs in all the biota species analysed. The S. serrate and mollusc showed higher accumulation than the other species. The mollusc and the other fish species in the estuary are consumed in Ghana, and therefore there is the need to educate the population on the effect of the PGMs on their health.     

Impact of helmet use on traumatic brain injury from road traffic accidents in Cambodia

Objective: Rapid urbanization and motorization without corresponding increases in helmet usage have made traumatic brain injury due to road traffic accidents a major public health crisis in Cambodia. This analysis was conducted to quantify the impact of helmets on severity of injury, neurosurgical indication, and functional outcomes at discharge for motorcycle operators who required hospitalization for a traumatic brain injury following a road traffic accident in Cambodia.

Methods: The medical records of 491 motorcycle operators who presented to a major tertiary care center in Cambodia with traumatic brain injury were retrospectively analyzed using multivariate logistic regression.

Results: The most common injuries at presentation were contusions (47.0%), epidural hematomas (30.1%), subdural hematomas (27.9%), subarachnoid hemorrhages (12.4%), skull fractures (21.4%), and facial fractures (18.5%). Moderate-to-severe loss of consciousness was present in 36.3% of patients. Not wearing a helmet was associated with an odds ratio of 2.20 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15–4.22) for presenting with moderate to severe loss of consciousness compared to helmeted patients. Craniotomy or craniectomy was indicated for evacuation of hematoma in 20.0% of cases, and nonhelmeted patients had 3.21-fold higher odds of requiring neurosurgical intervention (95% CI, 1.25–8.27). Furthermore, lack of helmet usage was associated with 2.72-fold higher odds of discharge with functional deficits (95% CI, 1.14–6.49). In total, 30.1% of patients were discharged with severe functional deficits.

Conclusions: Helmets demonstrate a protective effect and may be an effective public health intervention to significantly reduce the burden of traumatic brain injury in Cambodia and other developing countries with increasing rates of motorization across the world.     

Effects of the Conservation Reserve Program on northern bobwhite and grassland birds

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has converted just over 36 million acres of cropland into potential wildlife habitat, primarily grassland. Thus, the CRP should benefit grassland songbirds, a group of species that is declining across the United States and is of conservation concern. Additionally, the CRP is an important part of multi-agency, regional efforts to restore northern bobwhite populations. However, comprehensive assessments of the wildlife benefits of CRP at regional scales are lacking. We used Breeding Bird Survey and National Resources Inventory data to assess the potential for the CRP to benefit northern bobwhite and other grassland birds with overlapping ranges and similar habitat associations. We built regression models for 15 species in seven different ecological regions. Forty-nine of 108 total models contained significant CRP effects (P < 0.05), and 48 of the 49 contained positive effects. Responses to CRP varied across ecological regions. Only eastern meadowlark was positively-related to CRP in all the ecological regions, and western meadowlark was the only species never related to CRP. CRP was a strong predictor of bird abundance compared to other land cover types. The potential for CRP habitat as a regional conservation tool to benefit declining grassland bird populations should continue to be assessed at a variety of spatial scales. We caution that bird-CRP relations varied from region to region and among species. Because the NRI provides relatively coarse resolution information on CRP, more detailed information about CRP habitats (spatial arrangement, age of the habitat (time since planting), specific conservation practices used) should be included in future assessments to fully understand where and to what extent CRP can benefit grassland birds.     

Fuzzy logic for piping risk assessment (pfLOPA)

This paper explores the application of the fuzzy logic for risk assessment of major hazards connected with transportation of flammable substances in long pipelines. As a basis for risk assessment, the framework of the fuzzy Layer of Protection Analysis (fLOPA) was used. fLOPA presents a new approach to risk assessment based on two assumptions: 1. different effects of the layer of protection functions on particular elements of the risks (frequency and severity of consequence), and 2. the application of fuzzy logic system (FLS) composed of three elements: fuzzification, inference process and defuzzification. A further calculation follows LOPA methodology with the use of fuzzy logic system where fuzzy risk matrix is used for risk assessment. A typical case study comprising section of a long pipeline failure is performed and a comparison between the classical LOPA approach and fuzzy approach is made.     

Human exposure to PCBs, PBDEs and HBCDs in Ghana: Temporal variation, sources of exposure and estimation of daily intakes by infants

Human exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and brominated flame retardants (BFRs) such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) was evaluated in Ghana using breast milk samples collected in 2004 and 2009. Mean levels and ranges of PBDEs (4.5; 0.86-18 ng/g lw) and PCBs (62; 15-160 ng/g lw) observed in the present study were unexpectedly high, in spite of the fact that Ghana is a non-industrialized country when compared with many of the Asian and European countries. Significant increases were found in the concentrations of PCBs and PBDEs over the years, while no significant increase was observed for HBCDs. Estimated hazard quotient (HQ) showed that all the mothers had HQ values exceeding the threshold of 1 for PCBs, indicating potential health risk for their children. PCBs in dirty oils and obsolete equipment should be of concern as potential sources in Ghana, and e-waste recycling with little or no experience in safe handling could be a threat to this sub-region noted for unregulated disposal of e-waste. The results may point towards an increase in trends in human milk in Ghana, especially in the larger cities but further analysis would be required to confirm this upward trend in levels. This is the first study to report BFRs in human breast milk from Africa, and undoubtedly from Ghana.     

Knowledge coproduction on the impact of decisions for waterbird habitat in a changing climate

Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers increasingly use knowledge coproduction to guide the stewardship of future landscapes under climate change. This process was applied in the California Central Valley (USA) to solve complex conservation problems, where managed wetlands and croplands are flooded between fall and spring to support some of the largest concentrations of shorebirds and waterfowl in the world. We coproduced scenario narratives, spatially explicit flooded waterbird habitat models, data products, and new knowledge about climate adaptation potential. We documented our coproduction process, and using the coproduced models, we determined when and where management actions make a difference and when climate overrides these actions. The outcomes of this process provide lessons learned on how to cocreate usable information and how to increase climate adaptive capacity in a highly managed landscape. Actions to restore wetlands and prioritize their water supply created habitat outcomes resilient to climate change impacts particularly in March, when habitat was most limited; land protection combined with management can increase the ecosystem's resilience to climate change; and uptake and use of this information was influenced by the roles of different stakeholders, rapidly changing water policies, discrepancies in decision-making time frames, and immediate crises of extreme drought. Although a broad stakeholder group contributed knowledge to scenario narratives and model development, to coproduce usable information, data products were tailored to a small set of decision contexts, leading to fewer stakeholder participants over time. A boundary organization convened stakeholders across a large landscape, and early adopters helped build legitimacy. Yet, broadscale use of climate adaptation knowledge depends on state and local policies, engagement with decision makers that have legislative and budgetary authority, and the capacity to fit data products to specific decision needs.     

Impact of proposed changes in IESTI equations for short-term dietary exposure to pesticides from Australian and Codex perspective

ABSTRACT

In 2015 a scientific workshop was held in Geneva, where updating the four equations for estimating the short-term dietary exposure (International Estimated Short Term Intake, IESTI) to pesticides was suggested. The impact of these proposed changes on the exposure was studied by using residue data and large portion consumption data from Codex and Australia. For the Codex data, the exposure increased by a median factor of 2.5 per commodity when changing to the proposed IESTI equations. The increase in exposure was highest for bulked and blended food commodities (case 3 equations), followed by medium-sized food commodities (case 2a equations) and small- and large-sized food commodities (case 1 and case 2b equations). For the Australian data, out of 184 maximum residue limit (MRL) large portion combinations showing acute exposures below the acute reference dose (ARfD) with the current IESTI equations, 23 exceeded the ARfD with the proposed IESTI equations (12%). The percentage exceeding the ARfD was higher for the Australian MRL large portion combinations (12% of 184) than for those of Codex (1.3% of 8,366). However, the percentage MRL loss in the Australian dataset may not be representative of all pesticide MRLs since it concerns six pesticides only, specifically selected to elucidate the potential effects of the use of the proposed IESTI equations. For the Codex data, the increase in exposure using the proposed equations resulted in a small increased loss of 2.6% of the 1,110 MRLs estimated by the Joint FAO/WHO Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR): 1.4% of the MRLs were already not acceptable with the current equations, 4.0% of the MRLs were not acceptable with the newly proposed equations. Our study revealed that case 3 commodities may be impacted more by the proposed changes than other commodities. This substantiates one of the conclusions of the Geneva workshop to gather information on bulking and blending practices in order to refine MRL setting and dietary risk assessment for case 3 commodities where possible.     

Evaluation of Terrestrial and Streamside Salamander Monitoring Techniques at Shenandoah National Park

In response to concerns about amphibian declines, a study evaluating and validating amphibian monitoring techniques was initiated in Shenandoah and Big Bend National Parks in the spring of 1998. We evaluate precision, bias, and efficiency of several sampling methods for terrestrial and streamside salamanders in Shenandoah National Park and assess salamander abundance in relation to environmental variables, notably soil and water pH. Terrestrial salamanders, primarily redback salamanders (Plethodon cinereus), were sampled by searching under cover objects during the day in square plots (10 to 35 m²). We compared population indices (mean daily and total counts) with adjusted population estimates from capture-recapture. Analyses suggested that the proportion of salamanders detected (p) during sampling varied among plots, necessitating the use of adjusted population estimates. However, adjusted population estimates were less precise than population indices, and may not be efficient in relating salamander populations to environmental variables. In future sampling, strategic use of capture-recapture to verify consistency of p's among sites may be a reasonable compromise between the possibility of bias in estimation of population size and deficiencies due to inefficiency associated with the estimation of p. The streamside two-lined salamander (Eurycea bislineata) was surveyed using four methods: leaf litter refugia bags, 1 m² quadrats, 50 × 1 m visual encounter transects, and electric shocking. Comparison of survey methods at nine streams revealed congruent patterns of abundance among sites, suggesting that relative bias among the methods is similar, and that choice of survey method should be based on precision and logistical efficiency. Redback and two-lined salamander abundance were not significantly related to soil or water pH, respectively.