The potential for vapour cloud explosions – Lessons from the Buncefield accident

At around 06.00 on Sunday 11th December 2005, a vapour cloud explosion occurred at Buncefield Oil Storage Depot, Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire, UK, generating significant blast pressures. However, as a storage site, the Buncefield terminal had very little pipework congestion and at first sight would not have been considered as having much potential for a vapour cloud explosion. As a consequence, one of the actions of the Buncefield Major Incident Investigation Board (BMIIB) was to initiate a review of the possible causes of the severe explosion on the site. This review was then extended to a Joint Industry Project, Phase 1 of which has offered an explanation of the cause of the explosion. The conclusions are summarized along with reference to relevant experimental studies, illustrating how the elements of the explanation were already known. The implications of the incident for the assessment of vapour cloud explosion hazards will be discussed, both in terms of understanding worst case consequences and the use of risk based approaches.     

Status and trends of circumpolar peregrine falcon and gyrfalcon populations

Ambio - The peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) and the gyrfalcon (Falco rusticolus) are top avian predators of Arctic ecosystems. Although existing monitoring efforts are well established for both...     

Forecasting Alpine Vegetation Change Using Repeat Sampling and a Novel Modeling Approach

Global change affects alpine ecosystems by, among many effects, by altering plant distributions and community composition. However, forecasting alpine vegetation change is challenged by a scarcity of studies observing change in fixed plots spanning decadal-time scales. We present in this article a probabilistic modeling approach that forecasts vegetation change on Niwot Ridge, CO using plant abundance data collected from marked plots established in 1971 and resampled in 1991 and 2001. Assuming future change can be inferred from past change, we extrapolate change for 100 years from 1971 and correlate trends for each plant community with time series environmental data (1971–2001). Models predict a decreased extent of Snowbed vegetation and an increased extent of Shrub Tundra by 2071. Mean annual maximum temperature and nitrogen deposition were the primary a posteriori correlates of plant community change. This modeling effort is useful for generating hypotheses of future vegetation change that can be tested with future sampling efforts.     

Direct and indirect effects of ammonia, ammonium and nitrate on phosphatase activity and carbon fluxes from decomposing litter in peatland

Here we investigate the response of soils and litter to 5 years of experimental additions of ammonium (NH₄), nitrate (NO₃), and ammonia (NH₃) to an ombrotrophic peatland. We test the importance of direct (via soil) and indirect (via litter) effects on phosphatase activity and efflux of CO₂. We also determined how species representing different functional types responded to the nitrogen treatments. Our results demonstrate that additions of NO₃, NH₄ and NH₃ all stimulated phosphatase activity but the effects were dependent on species of litter and mechanism (direct or indirect). Deposition of NH₃ had no effect on efflux of CO₂ from Calluna vulgaris litter, despite it showing signs of stress in the field, whereas both NO₃ and NH₄ reduced CO₂ fluxes. Our results show that the collective impacts on peatlands of the three principal forms of nitrogen in atmospheric deposition are a result of differential effects and mechanisms on individual components.     

Setting population-size targets for geese causing socio-economic conflicts

Most European goose populations have increased exponentially, and this has increasingly brought them into conflict with human activities. To manage this conflict, we used multi-criteria decision analysis to help set population targets for a super-abundant population of greylag geese (Anser anser). We relied on expert elicitation to assess the consequences of varying goose abundance on nine ecological, economic, and societal objectives. Representatives from national governments and from non-governmental organizations then weighted the objectives based on their perceived relative importance, and we used a consensus-convergence model to reach stakeholder agreement on the tradeoffs among objectives. The preferred population targets for two management units represent about a 20% reduction from current abundances, which from a management perspective would require considerable effort above and beyond current population-control measures. We believe that multi-criteria decision analysis can provide a systematic and transparent framework for building consensus among diverse stakeholders in a wide array of human-wildlife conflicts.     

Can a key boreal Calanus copepod species now complete its life-cycle in the Arctic? Evidence and implications for Arctic food-webs

The changing Arctic environment is affecting zooplankton that support its abundant wildlife. We examined how these changes are influencing a key zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus, principally found in the North Atlantic but expatriated to the Arctic. Close to the ice-edge in the Fram Strait, we identified areas that, since the 1980s, are increasingly favourable to C. finmarchicus. Field-sampling revealed part of the population there to be capable of amassing enough reserves to overwinter. Early developmental stages were also present in early summer, suggesting successful local recruitment. This extension to suitable C. finmarchicus habitat is most likely facilitated by the long-term retreat of the ice-edge, allowing phytoplankton to bloom earlier and for longer and through higher temperatures increasing copepod developmental rates. The increased capacity for this species to complete its life-cycle and prosper in the Fram Strait can change community structure, with large consequences to regional food-webs.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01667-y.     

Climate Change, Coral Reef Ecosystems, and Management Options for Marine Protected Areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more “traditional” stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.     

Characterization and identification of trends in average ambient ozone and fine particulate matter levels through trajectory cluster analysis in eastern Canada

In many locations in Eastern Canada, ambient levels of fine particulate matter (PM,25) and surface ozone (O3) depend on airflow direction and synoptic scale meteorological conditions. In this study, a cluster analysis was performed on 10 yr (1994-2003) of back-trajectory data for 11 locations in Eastern Canada, resulting in the identification of 10 unique back-trajectory clusters (or airflows) for each location. The airflows were then used to characterize and identify spatial and temporal trends in the daily maximum 8-hr average O3 (dmax 8-hr O3) and the daily average PM2.5 levels. Results showed that airflows from the southwest passing over Michigan and Southern Ontario were associated, on average, with the highest O3 levels at most locations in Eastern Canada. For PM2.5, the highest levels occurred with airflows from the Eastern Ohio River Valley. At major urban locations in Ontario and Quebec, the warm season mean (May to September) dmax 8-hr O3 and the annual mean PM2.5 were, on average, 12 parts per billion and 7.6 microg/m3 higher, respectively, than airflows from the north. Elevated levels of O3 and PM2.5 also occurred under light airflows, and, on average, the levels under light airflows were higher than their nonlight counterparts. At several locations in Canada, including Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, and Kejimkujik, the annual warm season mean dmax 8-hr O3 experienced a statistically significant (95% confidence) increasing trend over the 10-yr period. When airflow direction was considered, a number of locations experienced statistically significant upward trends in O3 for airflow from the north and northwest. Several locations also showed significant upward trends associated with airflow from the southwest passing over Michigan and Southwestern Ontario. Although there are no statistically significant downward trends, airflows from the southwest have shown a reduction in O3 levels in Southwestern Ontario in more recent years.     

Use of the electrical aerosol detector as an indicator of the surface area of fine particles deposited in the lung

Because of recent concerns about the health effects of ultrafine particles and the indication that particle toxicity is related to surface area, we have been examining techniques for measuring parameters related to the surface area of fine particles, especially in the 0.003- to 0.5-microm size range. In an earlier study, we suggested that the charge attached to particles, as measured by a prototype of the Electrical Aerosol Detector (EAD, TSI Inc., Model 3070), was related to the 1.16 power of the mobility diameter. An inspection of the pattern of particle deposition in the lung as a function of particle size suggested that the EAD measurement might be a useful indicator of the surface area of particles deposited in the lung. In this study, we calculate the particle surface area (micrometer squared) deposited in the lung per cubic centimeter of air inhaled as a function of particle size using atmospheric particle size distributions measured in Minneapolis, MN, and East St. Louis, IL. The correlations of powers of the mobility diameter, Dx, were highest for X = 1.1-1.6 for the deposited surface area and for X = 1.25 with the EAD signal. This overlap suggested a correspondence between the EAD signal and the deposited surface area. The correlation coefficients of the EAD signal and particle surface area deposited in the alveolar and tracheobronchial regions of the lung for three breathing patterns are in the range of Pearson's r = 0.91-0.95 (coefficient of determination, R2 = 0.82-0.90). These statistical relationships suggest that the EAD could serve as a useful indicator of particle surface area deposited in the lung in exposure and epidemiologic studies of the human health effects of atmospheric particles and as a measure of the potential surface area dose for the characterization of occupational environments.     

What difference might sewage treatment performance make to endocrine disruption in rivers?

An assessment of the steroid estrogen removing performance of 23 different sewage treatment plants (STPs) was performed. The assessment relied on a model to estimate influent concentrations, and completed questionnaires on the STP treatment details from the relevant water companies. This information was compared with observed effluent 17beta-estradiol (E2) and estrone (E1) concentrations. The 10 biological filter plants (BFP) in the study performed poorly with only 30% (SD 31) removal on average for E1. This reduced E1 removal performance of the BFPs compared to all the other STP types in the survey was statistically significant (p<0.001). Scenarios of all the STPs as activated sludge types, and one as all BFP types were modelled using the GREAT-ER model set up for the Aire/Calder catchment in the UK. This difference was shown to have an important effect on predicted river E1 concentrations and consequent risk classifications.