New approach to calculate the probability of ignition

The probabilistic approach to the evaluation of fire hazard and the effectiveness of fire-precaution measures enables a rational response to the randomness of fire outbreaks. This article employs the statistical analysis methods to elucidate the causes for the ignition of fire on a random sample of industrial buildings in the Republic of Slovenia. The analyses are based on the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which is a well established and important statistical analysis technique in the fields of social science, biology, psychology and medicine, but hitherto rarely applied in safety research. The results of the study demonstrate that for the analyzed random sample of industrial buildings the frequency of fire outbreaks statistically significantly depends only on the presence and the probability of exposure to the heat sources (flames, sparks, and hot surfaces), but does not significantly depend on the available quantity of flammable materials within the industrial structure.     

Erratum

Naturwissenschaften Aktuell     

Assessing and forecasting the impacts of global change on Mediterranean rivers. The SCARCE Consolider project on Iberian basins

Introduction

The Consolider-Ingenio 2010 project SCARCE, with the full title ??Assessing and predicting effects on water quantity and quality in Iberian Rivers caused by global change?? aims to examine and predict the relevance of global change on water availability, water quality, and ecosystem services in Mediterranean river basins of the Iberian Peninsula, as well as their socio-economic impacts. Starting in December 2009, it brought together a multidisciplinary team of 11 partner Spanish institutions, as well as the active involvement of water authorities, river basin managers, and other relevant agents as stakeholders.

Methods

The study areas are the Llobregat, Ebro, Jucar, and Guadalquivir river basins. These basins have been included in previous studies and projects, the majority of whom considered some of the aspects included in SCARCE but individually. Historical data will be used as a starting point of the project but also to obtain longer time series. The main added value of SCARCE project is the inclusion of scientific disciplines ranging from hydrology, geomorphology, ecology, chemistry, and ecotoxicology, to engineering, modeling, and economy, in an unprecedented effort in the Mediterranean area. The project performs data mining, field, and lab research as well as modeling and upscaling of the findings to apply them to the entire river basin.

Results

Scales ranging from the laboratory to river basins are addressed with the potential to help improve river basin management. The project emphasizes, thus, linking basic research and management practices in a single framework. In fact, one of the main objectives of SCARCE is to act as a bridge between the scientific and the management and to transform research results on management keys and tools for improving the River Basin Management Plans. Here, we outline the general structure of the project and the activities conducted within the ten Work Packages of SCARCE.     

Convergent and Contingent Community Responses to Grass Source and Dominance During Prairie Restoration Across a Longitudinal Gradient

Restoring prairie on formerly cultivated land begins by selecting propagule seed sources and the diversity of species to reintroduce. This study examined the effects of dominant grass propagule source (cultivar vs. non-cultivar) and sown propagule diversity (grass:forb sowing ratio) on plant community structure. Two field experiments were established in Kansas and Illinois consisting of identical split plot designs. Dominant grass source was assigned as the whole-plot factor, and sown dominance of grasses (five levels of seeded grass dominance) as the subplot factor. Species density, cover, and diversity were quantified for 5 years. The effect of dominant grass source on the cover of focal grasses, sown species, and volunteer species was contingent upon location, with variation between dominant grass sources observed exclusively in Kansas. Species density and diversity showed regionally convergent patterns in response to dominant grass source. Contrary to our hypotheses, total species density and diversity were not lower in the presence of grass cultivars, the grass source we had predicted would be more competitive. Sown grass dominance effects on the cover of the focal grass species were contingent upon location resulting from establishment corresponding better to the assigned treatments in Illinois. All other cover groups showed regionally convergent patterns, with lower cover of volunteers and higher cover of sown forbs, diversity, and species density in the lowest sown grass dominance treatment in both sites. Thus, decisions regarding the diversity of propagules to reintroduce had more consequence for plant community structure than cultivar or non-cultivar source of dominant grasses.     

Determination of resin acids during production of wood pellets--a comparison of HPLC/ESI-MS with the GC/FID MDHS 83/2 method

Resin acids are constituents of natural and technical products of widespread use. Exposure is known to cause health effects in the airways and on the skin. Liquid chromatography/positive ion electrospray-mass spectrometry (HPLC/pos ESI-MS) was investigated for determination of 7-oxodehydroabietic (7-OXO), dehydroabietic (DHAA) and abietic acid (AA) in wood dust-containing air samples as a derivatisation-free alternative to the GC/FID HSE method 83/2, developed by the Health and Safety Executive UK. The resin acid 7-OXO was measured as a marker for oxidised resin acids, which are known to be the main contact allergens in colophonium. The found detection limits were 0.42 ng m(-3) for 7-OXO, 5.2 ng m(-3) for DHAA and 9.4 ng m(-3) for AA, respectively, which are considerably lower than with the GC/FID method (24, 115 and 89 ng m(-3)). The two methods correlated well, although consistently and significantly lower concentrations of 7-OXO were detected with LC/MS. The higher concentration of this compound with MDHS 83/2 is suggested to be an artefact from the derivatisation step in the presence of soluble wood dust remains.     

Occurrence of pesticides in surface water bodies: a critical analysis of the Italian national pesticide survey programs

In recent years, several monitoring programs have been established as a consequence of EU Directives which include requirements for monitoring the quality of water resources (drinking water, groundwater and surface water). Plant protection products (PPPs) are an obvious target for monitoring activities, since they are directly released into the environment. In Italy, the National Environmental Protection Agency (ISPRA ex APAT) has recently published two reports containing the results of the National Plans for Control of Environmental Effects of PPP. These documents contain the collection of monitoring data related to the presence of PPP residues in surface water and groundwater. The first objective of this work was to critically analyze the results of monitoring campaigns on pesticide residues in surface waters in Italy. In particular, the paper focuses on whether and how the Italian approach satisfies the requirements of the Water Framework Directive, whether they are representative of the whole national territory, and how the utilized approach is appropriate for the characterization of risk to surface water. Starting from this analysis, some considerations about the limits of environmental monitoring as a tool for managing risk were highlighted.     

Land degradation assessment by geo-spatially modeling different soil erodibility equations in a semi-arid catchment

Land degradation by soil erosion is one of the most serious problems and environmental issues in many ecosystems of arid and semi-arid regions. Especially, the disturbed areas have greater soil detachability and transportability capacity. Evaluation of land degradation in terms of soil erodibility, by using geostatistical modeling, is vital to protect and reclaim susceptible areas. Soil erodibility, described as the ability of soils to resist erosion, can be measured either directly under natural or simulated rainfall conditions, or indirectly estimated by empirical regression models. This study compares three empirical equations used to determine the soil erodibility factor of revised universal soil loss equation prediction technology based on their geospatial performances in the semi-arid catchment of the Saraykoy II Irrigation Dam located in Cankiri, Turkey. A total of 311 geo-referenced soil samples were collected with irregular intervals from the top soil layer (0-10?cm). Geostatistical analysis was performed with the point values of each equation to determine its spatial pattern. Results showed that equations that used soil organic matter in combination with the soil particle size better agreed with the variations in land use and topography of the catchment than the one using only the particle size distribution. It is recommended that the equations which dynamically integrate soil intrinsic properties with land use, topography, and its influences on the local microclimates, could be successfully used to geospatially determine sites highly susceptible to water erosion, and therefore, to select the agricultural and bio-engineering control measures needed.     

Long-term changes of heavy metal and sulphur concentrations in ecosystems of the Taymyr Peninsula (Russian Federation) North of the Norilsk Industrial Complex

The Norilsk industrial ore smelting complex (Taymyr Peninsula, Russian Federation) has significantly impacted many components of local terrestrial and aquatic environments. Whether it has had a major impact on the wider Russian Arctic remains controversial as studies are scarce. From 1986 to 2004, data on heavy metal (Cu, Ni, Zn, Hg, Cd and Hg) concentrations in fish (burbot), moss, lichens, periphyton, hydric soils and snow in and around Norilsk and the most northern parts of the Taymyr Peninsula were analysed. Very high concentrations of Cu (203 μg L?1 ± 51 μg L?1) and Ni (113 μg L?1 ± 15 μg L?1) were found in the water of the Schuchya River close to Norilsk. Heavy metal concentrations in burbot liver were highest in Lake Pyasino near Norilsk compared to other study regions that were >100 km distant. From 1989-1996, Cu (121 μg L?1 ± 39 μg L?1 SD), Zn (150 μg L?1) ± 70 μg L?1) and Ni (149 μg L?1 ± 72 μg L?1) snow concentrations were greatest in Norilsk, but were low elsewhere. By 2004, these concentrations had dropped significantly, especially for Cu-74 μg L?1 (±18.7 μg L?1 SD), Zn-81.7 μg L?1 (± 31.3 μg L?1 SD) and Ni-80 μg L?1(±18.0 μg L?1 SD). Norilsk and its surroundings are subject to heavy pollution from the Norilsk metallurgical industry but these are absent from the greater Arctic region due to the prevailing winds and the Byrranga Mountains. Pollution abatement measures have been made so further investigations are necessary in order to assess their efficiency.     

Heavy metal contents in whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) along a pollution gradient in a subarctic watercourse

Metallurgic industry is a source of serious environmental pollution related to the emission of heavy metals. Freshwater systems are focal points for pollution, acting as sinks for contaminants that may end up in fish and humans. The Pasvik watercourse in the border area between Finland, Norway and Russia is located in the vicinity of the Pechenganickel metallurgic enterprises, and the lower part of the watershed drains the Nikel smelters directly through Lake Kuetsjarvi. Heavy metal (Ni, Cu, Cd, Zn, Pb and Hg) concentrations in environment (water and sediments) and whitefish Coregonus lavaretus tissue (gills, liver, kidney and muscle) were contrasted between five lake localities situated along a spatial gradient of increasing distance (5-100 km) to the smelters. The heavy metal concentrations, in particular Ni, Cu and Cd, were highly elevated in Kuetsjarvi, but steeply declined with increasing distance to the smelters and were moderate or low in the other four localities. The study demonstrates that the majority of metal emissions and runoffs are deposited near the pollution source, and only moderate amounts of the heavy metal contaminants seem to be transported at further distances. Bioaccumulation of Hg occurred in all investigated tissues, and higher Hg concentrations in planktivorous versus benthivorous whitefish furthermore indicated that pelagic foraging is associated with higher levels of Hg biomagnification. Potential population ecology impacts of high heavy metal contaminations where mainly observed in whitefish in Kuetsjarvi, which showed depletions in growth rate, condition factor and size and age at maturation.     

The seasonal distribution of heavy metals in Mussel sample from Yalova in the Marmara Sea, 2008�C2009

Concentration of the some heavy metals (Co, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb and Zn) Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis from Yalova (Marmara Sea) were investigated seasonally. The mean concentrations of Co, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb and Zn in the soft tissues were 4.08 ± 0.67, 5.54 ± 0.59, 156.72 ± 20.18, 3.71 ± 1.14, 2.92 ± 0.51 and 106.23 ± 5.66 mg kg(?-1) dry weights, respectively. There were no significant differences between the metal concentrations among the seasons (P > 0.05). The mean Pb and Zn concentrations were higher than the acceptable limit proposed by International Turkish standards.