Global-scale vs. regional-scale scenario assumptions: implications for estimating future water withdrawals in the Elbe River basin

In this paper, we explore how scenarios of future water withdrawals in a river basin are influenced by scale-dependent quantifications of the driving forces for two global-scale storylines. Either global-scale information or region-specific information is used to do the quantifications. In addition, we analyze the impact of including or not some restricted regional-scale information in the employed water use model. To develop scenarios of water withdrawals in the German part of the Elbe River basin, we applied the modules for domestic, thermoelectric power and manufacturing water use of the global water model WaterGAP, using scale-dependent driving forces scenarios and other scale-dependent model input. In the global-scale quantitative interpretations of the storylines of the IPCC SRES scenarios A1 and B2, all major driving forces of water withdrawals in the basin—population, thermoelectric power production and industrial gross domestic product—show vigorous increases between 2000 and 2025, while from the regional perspective, smaller increases but mostly decreases appear to be plausible. These discrepancies are partly due to the fact that for the global-scale interpretations only the historic developments until 1990 were taken into account, and not until 2000 as in the regional case. The resulting scenarios of sectoral water withdrawals in 2025 differ strongly between the two scale-dependent interpretations of the storylines, with the global one leading to much higher absolute water withdrawals and much lower withdrawal decreases between 2000 and 2025. Therefore, for regional assessments of water withdrawals, we recommend to embed the scenario analysis in global-scale storylines by performing regional-scale quantifications of the global qualitative driving forces scenarios, based on a limited amount of region-specific information.     

Rhythmic vertical migration of the gastropod Cerithidea decollata in a Kenyan mangrove forest

In Mida Creek, Kenya (3°20′S, 40°5′E), at high water, the snail Cerithidea decollata dwells on the trunks of mangrove trees (Avicennia marina), while during low water it migrates to the ground, foraging at various distances from the trunk, where it aggregates again well before the incoming tide. Snails from the upper shore level are 150–200 m distant from those living at the lower shore level and they cluster at lower heights on trunks. In any case, sufficient height is usually attained to avoid being submersed. An experiment was designed (February and October 2005), exchanging individuals from different shore levels subject to different tide regimes, in order to test whether snails rely on internal information or on external, direct cues, to adapt their behaviour to local conditions. Results show that C. decollata mostly rely on internal information, presumably based on an internal clock. When individuals from upper and lower shore levels were exchanged, their internal clocks continued to govern when to ascend the home trunk and how high to climb for five to six successive tides, after which the behaviour was reset to the new local conditions.     

Regulation of intertidal food webs by avian predators on New England rocky shores

Although there is a large body of research on food webs in rocky intertidal communities, most of the emphasis has been on the marine benthic components. Effects of avian predation on highly mobile predators such as crabs, remains practically unstudied in rocky shore ecosystems. The crab, Cancer borealis, is an important component of the diet of gulls (Larus marinus, L. argentatus) at the Isles of Shoals, Maine, USA. C. borealis prey include the predatory gastropod Nucella lapillus L., the herbivore Littorina littorea, and mussels Mytilus edulis L. We hypothesized that gulls reduce abundance of C. borealis in the low intertidal and shallow subtidal, thereby allowing C. borealis prey to persist in high numbers. A study of crab tidal migration showed that C. borealis density nearly doubled at high tide compared to low tide; thus, crabs from a large subtidal source population migrate into the intertidal zone during high tides and either emigrate or are removed by gulls during low tides. Results from a small-scale (1 m2) predator caging experiment in the low intertidal zone indicated that enclosed crabs significantly reduced L. littorea abundance when protected from gull predation. In a much larger-scale gull exclusion experiment, densities of C. borealis increased significantly during low and high tides in exclosures relative to the controls. C. borealis density was inversely correlated with changes in the abundance of two mesopredators Carcinus maenas and Nucella lapillus, and with the space-occupier M. edulis. There was a similar negative correlation between abundance of C. borealis and the change in abundance of the herbivore L. littorea, but the trend was not significant. Mortality of tethered L. littorea was associated with C. borealis density across sites. However, preferred algae did not change in response to L. littorea density during the experiment. Thus, we found suggestive, but not conclusive, evidence for a three-level cascade involving gulls, crabs, and L. littorea. Our studies strongly suggest that gulls, as apex predators, generate three-level trophic cascades in rocky intertidal food webs by preventing the highly mobile subtidal predator, C. borealis, from establishing substantial populations in the low-mid intertidal zone thereby indirectly enhancing densities of two key mesopredators (N. lapillus, Carcinus) and blue mussels (M. edulis).     

Capacity of transportation and spread of COVID-19—an ironical fact for developed countries

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The widespread epidemic of the COVID-19 in developed countries such as Europe and the USA has sparked many speculations. What factors caused the rapid...     

Influence of Restoration Age and Riparian Vegetation on Reach‐Scale Nutrient Retention in Restored Urban Streams

In urban watersheds, stormwater inputs largely bypass the buffering capacity of riparian zones through direct inputs of drainage pipes and lowered groundwater tables. However, vegetation near the stream can still influence instream nutrient transformations via maintenance of streambank stability, input of woody debris, modulation of organic matter sources, and temperature regulation. Stream restoration seeks to mimic many of these functions by engineering channel complexity, grading stream banks to reconnect incised channels, and replanting lost riparian vegetation. The goal of this study was to quantify these effects by measuring nitrate and phosphate uptake in five restored streams in Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, with a range of restoration ages. Using nutrient spiraling methods, uptake velocity of nitrate (0.02‐3.56 mm/min) and phosphate (0.14‐19.1 mm/min) was similar to other urban restored streams and higher than unimpacted forested streams with variability influenced by restoration age and geomorphology. Using a multiple linear regression approach, reach‐scale phosphate uptake was greater in newly restored sites, which was attributed to assimilation by algal biofilms, whereas nitrate uptake was highest in older sites potentially due to greater channel stability and establishment of microbial communities. The patterns we observed highlight the influence of riparian vegetation on energy inputs (e.g., heat, organic matter) and thereby on nutrient retention.     

Assessing the adaptive capacity of multi-level water governance: ecosystem services under climate change in Mälardalen region,Sweden

Regional Environmental Change - Adaptive and multi-level governance is often called for in order to improve the management of complex issues such as the provision of natural resources and ecosystem...     

Melatonin exerts a neuroprotective effect against γ-radiation-induced brain injury in the rat through the modulation of neurotransmitters,inflammatory cytokines,oxidative stress,and apoptosis

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The current study aimed to investigate the ameliorative effect of melatonin (MLT) against brain injury in rats undergoing whole-body exposure to...     

Physiopathology and effectiveness of therapeutic vaccines against human papillomavirus

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a well-known sexually transmitted disorder globally. Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the 3rd most common cancer that...     

All-in-one whole exome sequencing strategy with simultaneous copy number variant,single nucleotide variant and absence-of-heterozygosity analysis in fetuses with structural ultrasound anomalies: A 1-year experience

Objective

We performed a 1-year evaluation of a novel strategy of simultaneously analyzing single nucleotide variants (SNVs), copy number variants (CNVs) and copy-number-neutral Absence-of-Heterozygosity from Whole Exome Sequencing (WES) data for prenatal diagnosis of fetuses with ultrasound (US) anomalies and a non-causative QF-PCR result.

Methods

After invasive diagnostics, whole exome parent-offspring trio-sequencing with exome-wide CNV analysis was performed in pregnancies with fetal US anomalies and a non-causative QF-PCR result (WES-CNV). On request, additional SNV-analysis, restricted to (the) requested gene panel(s) only (with the option of whole exome SNV-analysis afterward) was performed simultaneously (WES-CNV/SNV) or as rapid SNV-re-analysis, following a normal CNV analysis.

Results

In total, 415 prenatal samples were included. Following a non-causative QF-PCR result, WES-CNV analysis was initially requested for 74.3% of the chorionic villus (CV) samples and 45% of the amniotic fluid (AF) samples. In case WES-CNV analysis did not reveal a causative aberration, SNV-re-analysis was requested in 41.7% of the CV samples and 17.5% of the AF samples. All initial analyses could be finished within 2 weeks after sampling. For SNV-re-analysis during pregnancy, turn-around-times (TATs) varied between one and 8 days.

Conclusion

We show a highly efficient all-in-one WES-based strategy, with short TATs, and the option of rapid SNV-re-analysis after a normal CNV result.