Economic use value of the Belize marine ecosystem: Potential risks and benefits from offshore oil exploration

The announcement of plans for exploratory oil drilling at a number of offshore sites in Belize raised concerns about the risks associated with drilling, particularly given the socio‐economic importance of the marine ecosystem. The current economic value of fisheries and marine ecotourism is estimated, along with the potential revenue from offshore oil and potential economic losses stemming from oil pollution, under various assumptions on risk and uncertainty. Marine fisheries and ecotourism are estimated to generate around US$ 183 million per year. Single‐year estimated maximum revenue is higher for oil extraction initially but quickly declines; during a 50 year (two generation) period, total discounted benefits from marine fisheries and ecotourism are estimated at US$ 5.1 billion, compared to US$ 3.2 billion from offshore oil revenue. Following a hypothetical oil spill, discounted losses in marine fisheries and ecotourism due to perception and ecological impacts are estimated at US$ 912 million, with clean‐up costs and capital losses of US$ 6.1‐10.4 billion. Considering the short extraction life of oil resources compared to fisheries and ecotourism, the difference in benefits increases substantially in favour of the latter with a longer time horizon. A recent public referendum resulted in a 98% vote against oil exploration and a subsequent annulment of oil concessions pending environmental impact assessments.     

Leaders of the Pack: An analysis of the Canadian 'Sustainable Communities' 2000 municipal competition

The first annual Sustainable Community competition, co-sponsored by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) and CH2M Hill in 2000, received 52 submissions from municipalities across Canada. These submissions were systematically analysed to identify common characteristics shared by competition entrants, including what differentiates competition participants from other Canadian municipalities, what kinds of sustainability projecs municipalities have been most likely to undertake and what motivating and success factors are most commonly cited. Urban municipalities were more likely than rural municipalities to undertake sustainability projects. Stakeholder involvement was found to be the most important factor in determining the success of a project. Many projects in the competition had not identified clear holistic visions and benchmarks, and these were noted as areas where improvement could be made. The impact of higher levels of government in setting benchmarks and providing support was also noteworthy.     

Sense and sustainability: The case of the Slow City movement

Abstract

In this article I draw on recent anthropological literature on the senses to propose a novel approach to sustainable local development. I suggest that attention to how the senses are engaged in both discourses concerning and corporeal experiences of sustainable urban development, can produced insights into how these processes operate. In developing the discussion I draw from examples from ethnographic research in British member towns of the Cittàslow (Slow City) movement.     

Assessing Parameter Uncertainty of a Semi‐Distributed Hydrology Model for a Shallow Aquifer Dominated Environmental System

This paper examines the performance of a semi‐distributed hydrology model (i.e., Soil and Water Assessment Tool [SWAT]) using Sequential Uncertainty FItting (SUFI‐2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), parameter solution (ParaSol), and particle swarm optimization (PSO). We applied SWAT to the Waccamaw watershed, a shallow aquifer dominated Coastal Plain watershed in the Southeastern United States (U.S.). The model was calibrated (2003‐2005) and validated (2006‐2007) at two U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations, using significant parameters related to surface hydrology, hydrogeology, hydraulics, and physical properties. SWAT performed best during intervals with wet and normal antecedent conditions with varying sensitivity to effluent channel shape and characteristics. In addition, the calibration of all algorithms depended mostly on Manning's n‐value for the tributary channels as the surface friction resistance factor to generate runoff. SUFI‐2 and PSO simulated the same relative probability distribution tails to those observed at an upstream outlet, while all methods (except ParaSol) exhibited longer tails at a downstream outlet. The ParaSol model exhibited large skewness suggesting a global search algorithm was less capable of characterizing parameter uncertainty. Our findings provide insights regarding parameter sensitivity and uncertainty as well as modeling diagnostic analysis that can improve hydrologic theory and prediction in complex watersheds. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Emergency braking is affected by the use of cruise control

Objective: We compared the differences in the braking response to vehicle collision between an active human emergency braking (control condition) and cruise control (CC) or adaptive cruise control (ACC).

Methods: In 11 male subjects, age 22 to 67 years, we measured the active emergency braking response during manual driving using the accelerator pedal (control condition) or in condition mimicking CC or ACC. In both conditions, we measured the brake reaction time (BRT), delay to produce the peak braking force (PBD), total emergency braking response (BRT + PBD), and peak braking force (PBF). Electromyograms of leg and thigh muscles were recorded during braking. The tonic vibratory response (TVR), Hoffman reflex (HR), and M-waves were recorded in leg muscles to explore the change in sensorimotor control.

Results: No difference in PBF, TVR amplitude, HR latency, and H_max/M_max ratio were found between the control and CC/ACC conditions. On the other hand, BRT and PBD were significantly lengthened in the CC/ACC condition (240 ± 13 ms and 704 ± 70 ms, respectively) compared to control (183 ± 7 ms and 568 ± 36 ms, respectively). BRT increased with the age of participants and the driving experience shortened PBD and increased PBF.

Conclusions: In male subjects, driving in a CC/ACC condition significantly delays the active emergency braking response to vehicle collision. This could result from higher amplitude of leg motion in the CC/ACC condition and/or by the age-related changes in motor control. Car and truck drivers must take account of the significant increase in the braking distance in a CC/ACC condition.     

A multi-disciplinary framework to monetize financial consequences arising from CCS projects and motivate effective financial responsibility

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) holds promise as a safe and effective approach for addressing climate change. However, concern about potential “liability” associated with CCS often is cited as a significant barrier to project deployment. The authors contend that, in this context, the term “liability” is poorly defined and conflates concerns about the uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of potential damages with the need for financial responsibility for long-term stewardship of certified closed sites. This paper offers an analytic framework drawn from damages estimation methodologies used in comparable contexts and incorporates risk-based probabilistic modeling to assist stakeholders in evaluating the potential environmental, human health and financial consequences of CCS projects. Application of the proposed framework will achieve four distinct objectives. First, the outputs of the analyses – monetized damages estimates for adverse impact scenarios coupled with expected loss calculations that reflect scenario probabilities and identify the statistical range of possible outcomes, including “most likely” loss estimates – will help interested stakeholders consider the viability of various investment and financial risk management strategies. Second, the results can be used to develop or negotiate financial assurance instruments for analyzed projects. Third, the results will inform the public policy debate regarding the degree and magnitude of potential financial consequences resulting over the long-term, beyond an established post-closure period. And, fourth, while the detailed conceptual framework, resulting models, impact calculations and valuation analyses may be applied on a site-by-site basis, the site-specific results could be pooled to assess regional and national implications of various risk mitigation and financial risk management policies.