Management options and effects on a marine ecosystem: assessing the future of the Baltic

We are using the coupled models in a decision support system, Nest, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address all the seven major marine basins and the entire drainage basin of the Baltic Sea. A series of future scenarios have been developed, in close collaboration with the Helsinki Commission, to see the possible effects of improved wastewater treatment and manure handling, phosphorus-free detergents, and less intensive land use and live stocks. Improved wastewater treatment and the use of phosphorus-free detergents in the entire region would drastically decrease phosphorus loads and improve the marine environment, particularly the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms. However, the Baltic Sea will remain eutrophic, and to reduce other effects, a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions must be implemented. This can only be obtained in these scenarios by drastically changing land use. In a final scenario, we have turned 50% of all agricultural lands into grasslands, together with efficient wastewater treatments and a ban of phosphorus in detergents. This scenario will substantially reduce primary production and the extension of hypoxic bottoms, increase water transparency in the most eutrophied basins, and virtually eliminate extensive cyanobacterial blooms.     

Characterisation of PM10 emissions from woodstove combustion of common woods grown in Portugal

A series of source tests was performed to evaluate the chemical composition of particle emissions from the woodstove combustion of four prevalent Portuguese species of woods: Pinus pinaster (maritime pine), Eucalyptus globulus (eucalyptus), Quercus suber (cork oak) and Acacia longifolia (golden wattle). Analyses included water-soluble ions, metals, radionuclides, organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC), humic-like substances (HULIS), cellulose and approximately l80 organic compounds. Particle (PM₁₀) emission factors from eucalyptus and oak were higher than those from pine and acacia. The carbonaceous matter represented 44–63% of the particulate mass emitted during the combustion process, regardless of species burned. The major organic components of smoke particles, for all the wood species studied, with the exception of the golden wattle (0.07–1.9% w/w), were anhydrosugars (0.2–17% w/w). Conflicting with what was expected, only small amounts of cellulose were found in wood smoke. As for HULIS, average particle mass concentrations ranged from 1.5% to 3.0%. The golden wattle wood smoke presented much higher concentrations of ions and metal species than the emissions from the other wood types. The results of the analysis of radionuclides revealed that the ²²⁶Ra was the naturally occurring radionuclide more enriched in PM₁₀. The chromatographically resolved organics included n-alkanes, n-alkenes, PAH, oxygenated PAH, n-alkanals, ketones, n-alkanols, terpenoids, triterpenoids, phenolic compounds, phytosterols, alcohols, n-alkanoic acids, n-di-acids, unsaturated acids and alkyl ester acids.     

Forest Area in Costa Rica: A Comparative Study of Tropical Forest Cover Estimates over Time

Forest area figures, at a given point in time and for a given region of interest, differ considerably, affecting the calculation of deforestation rates and thus confuse the political and scientific discussion on the state and change of the resource forest. This article discusses the variation of published forest cover figures, using Costa Rica as an example. A list of published figures on the forest cover of Costa Rica from 1940 onwards is analyzed. Reasons for the differences are hypothesized and discussed. These differences are mainly in the definition of forest and forest classes included, in the type of the studies conducted (mapping and/or sampling), in the precision of the estimates, and in the information sources used. It is concluded that part of the problem is inherent in the nature of the resource `forest'. Quality and completeness of the presentation of the forest cover estimates are a clue to their correct understanding and interpretation. The latter point being especially relevant, as forest cover data have both a technical-scientific and a political meaning and are used as relevant arguments in many discussions. In the example of Costa Rica, a general downward trend is observed up to about 1985/1990, whereas after that forest area figures are on the average at a markedly higher level. Some hypotheses for this change in the trend are discussed.     

Distribution and evolution of genetic caste determination in Pogonomyrmex seed-harvester ants

We examined the distribution and ancestral relationships of genetic caste determination (GCD) in 46 populations of the seed-harvester ants Pogonomyrmex barbatus and P. rugosus across the east-to-west range of their distributions. Using a mtDNA sequence and two nuclear markers diagnostic for GCD, we distinguished three classes of population phenotypes: those with GCD, no evidence of GCD, and mixed (both GCD and non-GCD colonies present). The GCD phenotype was geographically widespread across the range of both morphospecies, occurring in 20 of 46 sampled populations. Molecular data suggest three reproductively isolated and cryptic lineages within each morphospecies, and no present hybridization. Mapping the GCD phenotype onto a mtDNA phylogeny indicates that GCD in P. rugosus was acquired from P. barbatus, suggesting that interspecific hybridization may not be the causal agent of GCD, but may simply provide an avenue for GCD to spread from one species (or subspecies) to another. We hypothesize that the origin of GCD involved a genetic mutation with a major effect on caste determination. This mutation generates genetic conflict and results in the partitioning and maintenance of distinct allele (or gene set) combinations that confer differences in developmental caste fate. The outcome is two dependent lineages within each population; inter-lineage matings produce workers, while intra-lineage matings produce reproductives. Both lineages are needed to produce a caste-functional colony, resulting in two reproductively isolated yet interdependent lineages. Pogonomyrmex populations composed of dependent lineages provide a unique opportunity to investigate genetic variation underlying phenotypic plasticity and its impact on the evolution of social structure.     

Propagation of olfactory information within the honeybee hive

Transfer of information about food source characteristics within insect societies is essential to colony-foraging success. The food odor communicated within honeybee hives has been shown to be important for food source exploitation. When successful foragers return to the nest and transfer the collected nectar to hive mates through mouth-to-mouth contacts (trophallaxis), potential recruits receiving these samples learn the food odor by associative learning. The food then becomes rapidly distributed among colony members, which is mainly a consequence of the numerous trophallaxes between hive-mates of all ages during food processing. We tested whether the distribution of food among hive mates causes a propagation of olfactory information within the hive. Using the proboscis extension response paradigm, we show that large proportions of bees of the age groups representing the main worker castes, 4 to 9-day-old bees (nurse-aged bees), 12 to 16-day-old bees (food processor-aged bees), and actual foragers (about 17+ day old bees) associatively learn the food odor in the course of processing food that has been collected by only a few foragers. Results further suggest that the information is shared more or less equally between bees of the three age groups. This shows that olfactory information about the flower species exploited by foragers is distributed within the entire colony and is acquired by bees of all age groups, which may influence many behaviors inside and outside the hive.     

Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Morphological and molecular data suggest a cosmopolitan distribution of the polychaete <Emphasis Type="Italic">Proscoloplos cygnochaetus</Emphasis> Day, 1954 (Annelida,Orbiniidae)

The discovery of a possibly invasive Proscoloplos species on the French Atlantic coast led to a detailed morphological and molecular investigation. Proscoloplos consists of three nominal species, but molecular analyses of the variable ITS1 and ITS2 region revealed no clade support for samples from South Africa, France and Australia, representing at least two of these nominal species. We found no unambiguous diagnostic characters for the three different species even with scanning electron microscopy. Two main characters—first appearance of branchiae and hooks—that were used for species delineation show considerable intrapopulational variation and do not withstand critical evaluation. The obtained data and the observed regenerative capabilities point to a cautious use of the position of branchiae and hooked chaetae as taxonomic marker in Proscoloplos. After experimental bisection of animals, the recovery led to a phenotype without recognizable signs of regeneration, but neither branchiae nor hooked chaetae reoccurred at the same initial segmental position. Summarising the molecular and morphological data we suggest the synonymy of the known Proscoloplos species under the senior synonym Proscoloplos cygnochaetus Day, 1967. The enormous geographic range of this species comprises the temperate waters of the whole southern hemisphere and includes the French population. We discuss a dispersal enabled through the effective anchorage on vessels using mucous glands and chaetae possibly combined with architomic reproduction.     

Temperature effects on vital rates of different life stages and implications for population growth of Baltic sprat

Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus S.) is a key species in the pelagic ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. Most stocks of small pelagic species are characterized by natural, fishery-independent fluctuations, which make it difficult to predict stock development. Baltic sprat recruitment is highly variable, which can partly be related to climate-driven variability in hydrographic conditions. Results from experimental studies and field observations demonstrate that a number of important life history traits of sprat are affected by temperature, especially the survival and growth of early life stages. Projected climate-driven warming may impact important processes affecting various life stages of sprat, from survival and development during the egg and larval phases to the reproductive output of adults. This study presents a stage-based matrix model approach to simulate sprat population dynamics in relation to different climate change scenarios. Data obtained from experimental studies and field observations were used to estimate and incorporate stage-specific growth and survival rates into the model. Model-based estimates of population growth rate were affected most by changes in the transition probability of the feeding larval stage at all temperatures (+0, +2, +4, +6?°C). The maximum increase in population growth rate was expected when ambient temperature was elevated by 4?°C. Coupling our stage-based model and more complex, biophysical individual-based models may reveal the processes driving these expected climate-driven changes in Baltic Sea sprat population dynamics.     

Triangulation based inclusion probabilities: a design-unbiased sampling approach

A probabilistic sampling approach for design-unbiased estimation of area-related quantitative characteristics of spatially dispersed population units is proposed. The developed field protocol includes a fixed number of 3 units per sampling location and is based on partial triangulations over their natural neighbors to derive the individual inclusion probabilities. The performance of the proposed design is tested in comparison to fixed area sample plots in a simulation with two forest stands. Evaluation is based on a general approach for areal sampling in which all characteristics of the resulting population of possible samples is derived analytically by means of a complete tessellation of the areal sampling frame. The example simulation shows promising results. Expected errors under this design are comparable to sample plots including a much greater number of trees per plot.