Sea level extremes in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands—a coastal hazard scenario to aid in decision analyses

The objective of this study is to provide a perspective on the extremes of sea-level variability and predictability for the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) on seasonal time-scales. Based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model, the L-moments method has been used to estimate the model parameters. The bootstrap method has been used to define the exceedance probability level of upper and lower bounds of the return periods at the 90% confidence interval. On the basis of these return calculations and expected extremes of high sea level, the seasonal maxima of sea level and the varying likelihood of extreme events have been estimated. For analyzing the predictability of the extremes of sea-level, a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) statistical model has been developed. Findings reveal that there is seasonal climatology of extreme events in the vicinity of USAPI that are variable on temporal and spatial scales. Some of the islands (Yap and Saipan) display considerably higher seasonal extremes than the others for 20 to 100 year return periods because of typhoon-related storm surges. These surges are likely to cause huge tidal large sea-level inundations and increased erosion to low-lying atolls/islands and result in considerable damage to roads, harbors, unstable sandy beaches, and other major infrastructures. Finally, the need for evaluating the extreme events and associated typhoons from a regional perspective has been stressed for coastal hazard management decision analyses in the USAPI.     

Public Lakes, Private Lakeshore: Modeling Protection of Native Aquatic Plants

Protection of native aquatic plants is an important proenvironmental behavior, because plant loss coupled with nutrient loading can produce changes in lake ecosystems. Removal of aquatic plants by lakeshore property owners is a diffuse behavior that may lead to cumulative impacts on lake ecosystems. This class of behavior is challenging to manage because collective impacts are not obvious to the actors. This paper distinguishes positive and negative beliefs about aquatic plants, in models derived from norm activation theory (Schwartz, Adv Exp Soc Psychol 10:221–279, 1977) and the theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, Boston 1975), to examine protection of native aquatic plants by Minnesota lakeshore property owners. We clarify how positive and negative evaluations of native aquatic plants affect protection or removal of these plants. Results are based on a mail survey (n = 3,115). Results suggest that positive evaluations of aquatic plants (i.e., as valuable to lake ecology) may not connect with the global attitudes and behavioral intentions that direct plant protection or removal. Lakeshore property owners’ behavior related to aquatic plants may be driven more by tangible personal benefits derived from accessible, carefully managed lakeshore than intentional action taken to sustain lake ecosystems. The limited connection of positive evaluations of aquatic plants to global attitudes and behavioral intentions may reflect either lack of knowledge of what actions are needed to protect lake health and/or unwillingness to lose perceived benefits derived from lakeshore property.     

PRINCIPLES FOR INTERNATIONAL GROUND-WATER LAW (I)

International ground-water resources have not received their full share of legal investigation. This paper outlines some principles applicable to the development of international co-operation concerning this important resource, bearing in mind that ground and surface waters are the same resource. In the absence of positive international law covering ground-water resources, national laws are investigated to examine their suitability for adaptation to the international level. In a second paper, to be published in the next issue of the Forum , the interjurisdictional experience among federated states and among independent states will be reviewed.     

Rainfall timing and poultry litter application rate effects on phosphorus loss in surface runoff

Phosphorus (P) in runoff from pastures amended with poultry litter may be a significant contributor to eutrophication of lakes and streams in Georgia and other areas in the southeastern United States. The objectives of this research were to determine the effects of litter application rate and initial runoff timing on the long-term loss of P in runoff from surface-applied poultry litter and to develop equations that predict P loss in runoff under these conditions. Litter application rates of 2, 7, and 13 Mg ha(-1), and three rainfall scenarios applied to 1- x 2-m plots in a 3 x 3 randomized complete block design with three replications. The rainfall scenarios included (i) sufficient rainfall to produce runoff immediately after litter application; (ii) no rainfall for 30 d after litter application; and (iii) small rainfall events every 7 d (5 min at 75 mm h(-1)) for 30 d. Phosphorus loss was greatest from the high litter rate and immediate runoff treatments. Nonlinear regression equations based on the small plot study produced fairly accurate (r(2) = 0.52-0.62) prediction of P concentrations in runoff water from larger (0.75 ha) fields over a 2-yr period. Predicted P concentrations were closest to observed values for events that occurred shortly after litter application, and the relative error in predictions increased with time after litter application. In addition, previously developed equations relating soil test P levels to runoff P concentrations were ineffective in the presence of surface-applied litter.     

Phosphorus losses from grasslands fertilized with broiler litter: EPIC simulations

Broiler litter, a mixture of poultry excreta and bedding material, is commonly used to fertilize grasslands in the southeastern USA. Previous work has shown that under certain situations, application of broiler (Gallus gallus domesticus) litter to grasslands may lead to elevated levels of phosphorus (P) in surface runoff. The EPIC simulation model may be a useful tool to identify those situations. This work was conducted to evaluate EPIC's ability to simulate event and annual runoff volume and losses of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) from tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb.)-bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.] paddocks fertilized with broiler litter. The EPIC simulations of event runoff volume showed a trend toward underestimation, particularly for runoff events >30 mm. On an annual basis, EPIC also tended to underestimate runoff, especially at runoff volumes > 100 mm. Both event and annual runoff estimations were strongly associated with observed values, indicating that model calibration could improve the simulation of surface runoff volume. The relationship between simulated and observed values of DRP loss was relatively poor on an event basis (r=0.65), but was stronger (r=0.75) on an annual basis. In general, EPIC tended to underestimate annual DRP losses. This underestimation was apparently caused by the lack of an explicit mechanism to model broiler litter on the soil surface. These results suggested that additional work on the EPIC P submodel would be warranted to improve its simulation of surface application of broiler litter to grasslands.     

Maternal provisioning of sequestered defensive steroids by the Asian snake <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rhabdophis tigrinus</Emphasis>

Summary.   Rhabdophis tigrinus obtains defensive steroids (bufadienolides) from its diet and sequesters those compounds in specialized structures on its neck known as nuchal glands. Hatchling snakes lacking these steroids must acquire them from toads consumed as prey. Here we show that females provision bufadienolides to their offspring in amounts correlated to the quantity in their own nuchal glands; thus, chemically protected mothers produce defended offspring. Bufadienolides can be provisioned to embryos via deposition in yolk and by transfer across the egg membranes within the oviducts. Maternally provisioned bufadienolides persist in the nuchal glands of juvenile snakes from the time of hatching in late summer until the following spring, when toads of ingestible size become abundant. Therefore, maternal provisioning may provide chemical protection from predators for young R. tigrinus in the absence of dietary sources of bufadienolides.     

Defensive chemistry of lycid beetles and of mimetic cerambycid beetles that feed on them

Summary.  Beetles of the family Lycidae have long been known to be chemically protected. We present evidence that North American species of the lycid genera Calopteron and Lycus are rejected by thrushes, wolf spiders, and orb-weaving spiders, and that they contain a systemic compound that could account, at least in part, for this unacceptability. This compound, a novel acetylenic acid that we named lycidic acid, proved actively deterrent in feeding tests with wolf spiders and coccinellid beetles. Species of Lycuscommonly figure as models of mimetic associations. Among their mimics are species of the cerambycid beetle genus Elytroleptus, remarkable because they prey upon the model lycids. We postulated that by doing so Elytroleptus might incorporate the lycidic acid from their prey for their own defense. However, judging from analytical data, the beetles practice no such sequestration, explaining why they remain relatively palatable (in tests with wolf spiders) even after having fed on lycids. Chemical analyses also showed the lycids to contain pyrazines, such as were already known from other Lycidae, potent odorants that could serve in an aposematic capacity to forestall predatory attacks. David Utterback: Deceased     

Variability and predictability of sea-level extremes in the Hawaiian and U.S.-Trust Islands—a knowledge base for coastal hazards management

The objective of this study is to provide an improved climatology of sea level extremes on seasonal and long-term time scales for Hawaii and the U.S-Trust islands. Observations revealed that the Hawaiian and U.S.-Trust islands, by and large, display a strong annual cycle. For estimating the statistics of return period, the three-parameter generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted using the method of L-moments. In the context of extremes (20- to 100-year return periods), the deviations in most of the Hawaiian Islands (except at Nawiliwili and Hilo) displayed a moderate sea-level rise (i.e., close to 200 mm), but the deviations in the U.S.-Trust islands displayed a considerably higher rise (i.e., more than 300 mm) in some seasons due to typhoon-related storm surges. This rise may cause damage to roads, harbors, and unstable sandy beaches. Correlations between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and the variability of seasonal sea level have been investigated. Results show that correlation for the station located west of the International Date Line (DL) is strong, but it is moderate or even weaker for stations east of the DL. The skill of SST-based Canonical Correlation Analyses (CCA) forecasts was found to be weak to moderate (0.4–0.6 for Honolulu, Kahului, Hilo, and Wake, and 0.3 or below for Kahului, Mokuoloe, and Johnston). Finally, these findings are synthesized for evaluating the potential implications of sea level variability in these islands.     

Odour-based species recognition in two sympatric species of sac-winged bats (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Saccopteryx bilineata,S. leptura)</Emphasis>: combining chemical analyses,behavioural observations and odour preference tests

Combining chemical analysis and odour preference tests, we asked whether two closely related sympatric species of sac-winged bats use odour for species recognition. Males of the two sister species Saccopteryx bilineata and Saccopteryx leptura have pouches containing an odoriferous liquid in their antebrachial wing membrane, which is used in S. bilineata during courtship displays. Although both species occasionally share the same daytime roosts and are morphologically similar, there is no evidence for interbreeding. We compared the production and composition of the wing sac odorant in male S. leptura and S. bilineata and performed odour preference tests with female S. bilineata. Similar to male S. bilineata, male S. leptura cleansed and refilled their wing sacs with secretions, but they spent more time each day in doing so than male S. bilineata. Chemical analysis by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry revealed that male Saccopteryx carried species-specific scents in their wing sacs. Binary choice tests confirmed that female S. bilineata preferred the wing sac scents of male S. bilineata to those of the sister species, suggesting that the species specificity of male wing sac scents maintain the pre-mating isolation barrier between these closely related species.