A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

The Variability of Estimates of Variance, and Its Effect on Power Analysis in Monitoring Design

Power analysis can be a valuable aid in the design of monitoringprograms. It requires an estimate of variance, which may come from a pilot study or an existing study in a similar habitat. For marine benthic infauna, natural variation in abundances canbe considerable, raising the question of reliability of varianceestimates. We used two existing monitoring programs to generatemultiple estimates of variance. These estimates were found to differ from nominated best estimates by 50% or more in 43% of cases, in turn leading to under or over-estimation of samplesize in the design of a notional monitoring program. The twostudies, from the same general area, using the same samplingmethods and spanning a similar time scale, gave estimatesvarying by more than an order of magnitude for 25% of taxa.We suggest that pilot studies for ecological monitoring programsof marine infauna should include at least two sampling times.     

Aerosol Scavenging: Model Application and Sensitivity Analysis in the Indian Context

Sulfate aerosols have been found to bethe major contributors to precipitation acidity. Thus,in view of the long-term ecological repercussions theyhave on aquatic ecosystems and their acidity-potential,the present analysis focuses on a case study applicationof the layer-averaged aerosol-scavenging model (Okita et al., 1996) for predicting values of the wet scavengingcoefficient and sulfate concentrations in precipitationsamples on the basis of the information available forsome selected Indian cities. Through sensitivityanalysis (Pandey et al., 1997) the scavengingcoefficient has been found to be very strongly dependenton precipitation intensity. Comparison of modelpredictions has been done with the measured values forDelhi, Mumbai, Calcutta and Chennai in India.     

Response of the Ascorbate-Peroxidase of Selenastrum capricornutum to Copper and Lead in Stormwaters

The green alga Selenastrum capricornutum expresses a uniqueascorbate peroxidase, that responds to copper and lead. Attemptswere made to test if this peroxidase could be used to monitor thelevels of copper and lead in natural waters. When S.capricornutum was exposed to a stormwater sample, the specificactivity of the peroxidase in the cell extract was commensuratewith the combined copper and lead contents in the sample. Theperoxidase responses were also correlated with the 96 hr biomasstoxicity assay of S. capricornutum. However, unlike thebiomass toxicity assay, the peroxidase activity was not affectedby the anions in the samples. The use of this peroxidase can beused as a marker for testing heavy metal toxicity in the water.     

Luminescence spectroscopy as a screening tool for the potential carcinogenicity of asphalt fumes

A subset of polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs), which contain 4-6 annulated rings, has been documented as the source of carcinogenicity in animal skin painting studies of petroleum products and asphalt fumes (M. L. Machado, P. W. Beatty, J. C. Fetzer, A. H. Glickman and E. L. McGinnis, Fundam. Appl. Toxicol., 1993, 21, 492; T. A. Roy, S. W. Johnson, G. R. Blackburn and C. R. Mackerer, Fundam. Appl. Toxicol., 1988, 10, 466). Because of the chemical complexity of these materials, it has been difficult to identify the specific compounds within this broad range of PACs responsible for their carcinogenicity. An alternative approach using luminescence spectroscopy was taken in this study to quantify, without identification, a subset of these compounds that appears to cause cancer. The fluorescence response at a specific wavelength pair was obtained for 39 laboratory asphalt fume condensates from animal skin painting studies, yielding a linear correlation coefficient of R2 = 0.96 between the fluorescence response in these materials and the carcinogenicity found in animal studies. In the absence of other asphalt fume condensates from animal studies, 17 petroleum oils were also evaluated using this method and compared with the available animal skin painting data. The details of the method include a clean-up step that removes the highly polar compounds and spectral subtraction of two- and three-ring PAC interference, both of which add to the fluorescence response, yet were not found to contribute to a carcinogenic response from skin painting studies. Full scan fluorescence plots also produce a fingerprint which can be used to assess contamination, such as coal tar products or mixtures of materials, that are not defined as asphalt, yet may be present in the working environment.     

Influence of environmental parameters on the accuracy of nitrogen dioxide passive diffusion tubes for ambient measurement

Two studies at three sites in the UK provided confirmation that systematic positive bias in NO2 diffusion tube measurement occurred because of changes to "within-tube" chemistry, rather than eddy diffusion at the mouth of the tube. In the first study in Cambridge, UK, sampler overestimation for 1 and 2 week exposures was compared to corresponding time-averaged monitor measurements (NO-NO2-NOx, O3) and weather variables. Noninearity between sampler and monitor NO2 measurements was interpreted in terms of spatial and temporal variations in relative and absolute availability of NO, NO2 and O3 at the site. A maximum overestimation occurred for an exposure mean NO2/NOx approximately 0.5. The separate contributions of reduced NO2 photolysis and eddy diffusion were compared in Study II using samplers of two materials, acrylic and quartz, and of different lengths (40, 55, 71 and 120 mm) at three sites: Norwich background, Cambridge intermediate, London kerbside. For compared sites, NO2 measured by acrylic samplers was significantly higher than for equivalent quartz samplers. For quartz samplers [NO2]mean was only just above the monitor at Norwich and London; sampler/monitor NO2 = 1.04 (P = 0.59) and 1.01(P = 0.76), respectively. For acrylic samplers the order of [NO2]mean was 40 mm > 120 mm > 71 mm > or = 55 mm. Excepting 40 mm samplers, this accords with a chemical bias where co-diffusing NO and 03 molecules in longer tubes have more time to react to form excess NO2. Bias in 40 mm samplers is discussed. Eddy diffusion is negligible for standard samplers because [NO2]mean was equivalent for 55 mm and 71 mm acrylic samplers and close to monitor NO2 for 71 mm quartz tubes. Both studies showed that sampler accuracy was dependent on location. Significantly, overestimation was greatest (approximately 3-4 ppb) where the NO2 annual mean was approximately 20 ppb, close to the UK and EU air quality standard of 21 ppb.     

Formation and Emission of N2O and CH4 from Compost Heaps of Organic Household Waster

Composting can be a source of N₂O andCH₄ production. In this investigation, differentcompost heaps of organic household waste weremonitored with the focus on potential formation ofCH₄ and N₂O in the heaps and emission ofthese gases from the heaps. The studied compost heapshad different compost ages, turning intervals andcompost sizes. The analysed compost gases containedbetween 1–3421 L of N₂O-N L^-1 and 0–470 mL of CH₄ L^-1. The emission rates ofN₂O and CH₄ from the compost heaps werebetween 1–1464 mg N₂O m^-2 day^-1 and0–119 000 mg CH₄ m^-2 day^-1. These verylarge differences in compost gas composition andemission indicate the importance of compostmanagement. The results also give an understanding ofwhere in the composting process an increasing emissionof N₂O and CH₄ can occur.     

The collection of PM10 for toxicological investigation: comparisons between different collecting devices

A positive correlation has been established between increased levels of airborne particulate pollution and adverse health effects, the toxicological mechanisms of which are poorly understood. For toxicologists to unambiguously determine thesemechanisms, truly representative samples of ambient PM₁₀ are required. This presents problems, as PM₁₀ collecting equipment commonly employed, such as the Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance (TEOM®), heat the inflow toexclude moisture or use fibrous filters, resulting in a PM₁₀sample that may have undergone significant chemical change on thefilter surface or is contaminated by filter fibres. Other systems(i.e. Negretti and Partisol) can successfully collect PM₁₀ without chemical alteration or filter contamination. Comparativecollections from Port Talbot, S. Wales suggest that TEOMs and Negretti/Partisol systems collect different PM₁₀'s; the principle difference arising from the TEOM's heating chamber, which precipitates water-soluble ions and volatilises some organic components. This results in both the mass and compositionof the PM₁₀'s being altered. Particle size distributionsfor Negretti and Partisol collections highlighted differences mainly attributed to different flow rates. The results of thiswork demonstrate that simple correlations between PM₁₀ massand adverse health effects are problematic. Furthermore, elucidation of the complex fractionation and chemical changes indifferent collectors is necessary.     

Degradability and Sediment Sorption of an Alcohol Polyglycol Ether Surfactant Putatively Useful for the Control of Red Swamp Crayfish in Rice Fields

This work reports studies of the degradation rates of a fattyalcohol polyglycol ether non-ionic surfactant, Genapol OXD-080, putatively useful for the control of red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii Girard) in rice fields under laboratory and field conditions. The influence of temperature,sediment site specificity and sorption were taken into account.The degradation kinetics of the surfactant depends on the experimental conditions: type of inocula and temperature. Thedistribution of this chemical in aquatic systems was also examined. Genapol OXD-080 was removed into the sedimentsreadily after application, and sorption was considered the majorpath of removal from the water phase. Data suggest that furtherstudies are required regarding the effects of Genapol OXD-080 in aquatic organisms resident in rice fields, in parallelwith the development of technologies related with the use ofsurfactants to control P. clarkii populations.     

Economic and Spatial Impacts of an Existing Reserve Network on Future Augmentation

An optimization model for land reservation was developed that explicitly selects parcels in the most compact or contiguous manner possible while meeting habitat requirements and a budget limitation. The model was used to compare the effects of an existing reserve network on future parcel spatial locations and total cost. Using habitat and land value data from Josephine County, Oregon, it was found that a system of existing reserves created by various policies and overseen by different agencies can decrease future reserve compactness and contiguity, and increase total cost. This work suggests that coordinated planning can result in more efficient conservation efforts for less cost.