New investigation findings on the 2006 Danvers,MA explosion

On November 22, 2006 the largest explosion in the history of Massachusetts occurred in Danvers, MA at approximately 2:46 am. This paper presents a detailed analysis into the potential causes and lessons learned from the Danvers explosion. Other investigative groups concluded that the cause of the explosion was an overheated production tank. However, the analyses presented here demonstrate that their proposed scenario could not have occurred and that other potential causes are more likely.Using the computational fluid dynamics tool FLACS, it was possible to investigate the chain of events leading to the explosion, including: (1) evaluating various leak scenarios by modeling the dispersion and mixing of gases and vapors within the facility, (2) evaluating potential ignition sources within the facility of the flammable fuel–air mixture, and (3) evaluating the explosion itself by comparing the resulting overpressures of the exploding fuel–air cloud with the structural response of the facility and the observed near-field and far-field blast damage. These results, along with key witness statements and other analyses, provide valuable insight into the likely cause of this incident. Based on the results of our detailed analysis, lessons learned regarding the investigative procedure and methods for mitigating this and future explosions are discussed.     

Using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for blast wave predictions

Explosions will, in most cases, generate blast waves. While simple models (e.g., Multi Energy Method) are useful for simple explosion geometries, most practical explosions are far from trivial and require detailed analyses. For a reliable estimate of the blast from a gas explosion it is necessary to know the explosion strength. The source explosion may not be symmetric; the pressure waves will be reflected or deflected when hitting objects, or even worse, the blast waves may propagate inside buildings or tunnels with a very low rate of decay. The use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) explosion models for near and far field blast wave predictions has many advantages. These include more precise estimates of the energy and resulting pressure of the blast wave, as well as the ability to evaluate non-symmetrical effects caused by realistic geometries, gas cloud variations and ignition locations. This is essential when evaluating the likelihood of a given leak source as cause of an explosion or equally when evaluating the potential risk associated with a given leak source for a consequence analysis.In addition, unlike simple methods, CFD explosion models can also evaluate detailed dynamic effects in the near and far field, which include time dependent pressure loads as well as reflection and focusing of the blast waves. This is particularly valuable when assessing actual near-field blast damage during an explosion investigation or potential near-field damage during a risk analysis for a facility. One main challenge in applying CFD, however, is that these models require more information about the actual facility, including geometry details and process information. Collecting the necessary geometry and process data may be quite time consuming. This paper will show some blast prediction validation examples for the CFD model FLACS. It will also provide examples of how directional effects or interaction with objects can significantly influence the dynamics of the blast wave. Finally, the challenge of obtaining useful predictions with insufficient details regarding the geometry will also be addressed.     

Wetland Flowpaths Mediate Nitrogen and Phosphorus Concentrations across the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and human health impacts are critical environmental challenges resulting from excess nitrogen and phosphorus in surface waters. Yet we have limited information regarding how wetland characteristics mediate water quality across watershed scales. We developed a large, novel set of spatial variables characterizing hydrological flowpaths from wetlands to streams, that is, “wetland hydrological transport variables,” to explore how wetlands statistically explain the variability in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations across the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) in the United States. We found that wetland flowpath variables improved landscape-to-aquatic nutrient multilinear regression models (from R² = 0.89 to 0.91 for TN; R² = 0.53 to 0.84 for TP) and provided insights into potential processes governing how wetlands influence watershed-scale TN and TP concentrations. Specifically, flowpath variables describing flow-attenuating environments, for example, subsurface transport compared to overland flowpaths, were related to lower TN and TP concentrations. Frequent hydrological connections from wetlands to streams were also linked to low TP concentrations, which likely suggests a nutrient source limitation in some areas of the UMRB. Consideration of wetland flowpaths could inform management and conservation activities designed to reduce nutrient export to downstream waters.     

21世纪可替代脊椎动物进行生态毒性测试的方法：过去二十年的发展和现状综述

替代脊椎动物进行化学物质和污染物危害评估的方法已成为越来越重要的需求。现在首先要考虑的是当启动一个脊椎动物生态毒性测试,必须确保不必要的脊椎动物生物的使用尽可能最小化。对于一些监管目的,脊椎动物的使用对环境风险评估(ERA)已经被禁止,而在其他情况下生物测试的数量已经大大减少了,或者测试程序严格精简了。然而,想要获得能够完全替代脊椎动物提供环境危害数据的方法仍有很长的路要走。动物替代品的发展不仅仅是基于道德的考虑,也可以降低执行脊椎动物生态毒性测试的成本以及在某些情况下能够提供更好的信息旨在改进环境风险评估。本文集中综述了在过去的几十年里生态毒性评估替代方法所发生的重大的进展。
精选自Adam Lillicrap, Scott Belanger, Natalie Burden, David Du Pasquier, Michelle R. Embry, Marlies Halder, Mark A. Lampi, Lucy Lee, Teresa Norberg-King, Barnett A. Rattner, Kristin Schirmer, Paul Thomas. Alternative approaches to vertebrate ecotoxicity tests in the 21st century: a review of developments over the last two decades and current status. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 11, pages 2637–2646, November 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3603
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3603/full
     

Linking marine predator diving behavior to local prey fields in contrasting habitats in a subarctic glacial fjord

Foraging theory predicts that animals will adjust their foraging behavior in order to maximize net energy intake and that trade-offs may exist that can influence their behavior. Although substantial advances have been made with respect to the foraging ecology of large marine predators, there is still a limited understanding of how predators respond to temporal and spatial variability in prey resources, primarily due to a lack of empirical studies that quantify foraging and diving behavior concurrently with characteristics of prey fields. Such information is important because changes in prey availability can influence the foraging success and ultimately fitness of marine predators. We assessed the diving behavior of juvenile female harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) and prey fields near glacial ice and terrestrial haulout sites in Glacier Bay (58°40′N, ?136°05′W), Alaska. Harbor seals captured at glacial ice sites dived deeper, had longer dive durations, lower percent bottom time, and generally traveled further to forage. The increased diving effort for seals from the glacial ice site corresponded to lower prey densities and prey at deeper depths at the glacial ice site. In contrast, seals captured at terrestrial sites dived shallower, had shorter dive durations, higher percent bottom time, and traveled shorter distances to access foraging areas with much higher prey densities at shallower depths. The increased diving effort for seals from glacial ice sites suggests that the lower relative availability of prey may be offset by other factors, such as the stability of the glacial ice as a resting platform and as a refuge from predation. We provide evidence of differences in prey accessibility for seals associated with glacial ice and terrestrial habitats and suggest that seals may balance trade-offs between the costs and benefits of using these habitats.     

An initial assessment of spatial relationships between respiratory cases,soil metal content,air quality and deprivation indicators in Glasgow,Scotland, UK: relevance to the environmental justice agenda

There is growing interest in links between poor health and socio-environmental inequalities (e.g. inferior housing, crime and industrial emissions) under the environmental justice agenda. The current project assessed associations between soil metal content, air pollution (NO₂/PM₁₀) and deprivation and health (respiratory case incidence) across Glasgow. This is the first time that both chemical land quality and air pollution have been assessed citywide in the context of deprivation and health for a major UK conurbation. Based on the dataset ‘averages’ for intermediate geography areas, generalised linear modelling of respiratory cases showed significant associations with overall soil metal concentration (p = 0.0367) and with deprivation (p < 0.0448). Of the individual soil metals, only nickel showed a significant relationship with respiratory cases (p = 0.0056). Whilst these associations could simply represent concordant lower soil metal concentrations and fewer respiratory cases in the rural versus the urban environment, they are interesting given (1) possible contributions from soil to air particulate loading and (2) known associations between airborne metals like nickel and health. This study also demonstrated a statistically significant correlation (?0.213; p < 0.05) between soil metal concentration and deprivation across Glasgow. This highlights the fact that despite numerous regeneration programmes, the legacy of environmental pollution remains in post-industrial areas of Glasgow many decades after heavy industry has declined. Further epidemiological investigations would be required to determine whether there are any causal links between soil quality and population health/well-being. However, the results of this study suggest that poor soil quality warrants greater consideration in future health and socio-environmental inequality assessments.     

Using surface drifter observations to measure tidal vortices and relative diffusion at Aransas Pass,Texas

Tidal vortices play an important role in the flushing of coastal regions. At the mouth of a tidal inlet, the input of circulation by the ebb tide may force the formation of a starting-jet dipole vortex. The continuous ebb jet current also creates a periodic sequence of secondary vortices shed from the inlet mouth. In each case, these tidal vortices have a shallow aspect ratio, with a lateral extent much greater than the water depth. These shallow vortices affect the transport of passive tracers, such as nutrients and sediment from the estuary to the ocean and vice versa. Field observation of tidal vortices primarily relies on ensemble averaging over several vortex events that are repeatable in space and can be sampled by a fixed Eulerian measurement grid. This paper presents an adaptive approach for locating and measuring within tidal vortices that propagate offshore near inlets and advect along variable trajectories set by the wind-driven currents. A field experiment was conducted at Aransas Pass, Texas to measure these large-scale vortices. Locations of the vortices produced during ebb tide were determined using near real-time updates from surface drifters deployed near or within the inlet during ebb tide, and the paths of towed acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) transects were selected by analysis of the drifter observations. This method allowed ADCP transects to be collected within ebb generated tidal vortices, and the paths of the drifters indicated the presence of both the starting-jet dipole and the secondary vortices of the unstable ebb tidal jet. Drifter trajectories were also used to estimate the size of each observed vortex as well as the statistics of relative diffusion offshore of Aransas Pass. The field data confirmed the starting-jet spin-up time (time until the vortex dipole begins to propagate offshore) measured in the laboratory by Bryant et al. [6] and that the Strouhal condition of \(St=0.2\) predicts the shedding of secondary vortices from the inlet mouth. The size of the rotational core of the vortex is also shown to be approximated physically by the inlet width or by \(0.02UT\) , where U is the maximum velocity through the inlet channel and T is the tidal period, and confirms results found in laboratory experiments by Nicolau del Roure et al. [23]. Additionally, the scale of diffusion was approximately 1–15 km and the apparent diffusivity was between 2–130  \(m^2/s\) following Richardsons law.     

Absence of metallothionein 3 expression in breast cancer is a rare but favorable marker that is under epigenetic control

Cadmium (Cd²⁺), a known carcinogen, mimics the effects of estrogen in the uterus and mammary gland suggesting its possible involvement in the development and progression of breast cancer. This lab showed through analysis of a small set of archival human diagnostic specimens that the third isoform of the classic Cd²⁺ binding protein metallothionein (MT-3) is not expressed in normal breast tissue, but is expressed in some breast cancers and that expression tends to correlate with a poor disease outcome. The goals of this study were to verify that overexpression of MT-3 in a large set of archival human diagnostic specimens tends to correlate with poor disease outcome and define the mechanism of MT-3 gene regulation in the normal breast epithelial cell. The results showed that MT-3 was expressed in approximately 90% of all breast cancers and was absent in normal breast epithelium. The lack of MT-3 staining in some cancers correlated with a favorable patient outcome. High frequency of MT-3 staining was also found for in situ breast cancer suggesting that MT-3 might be an early biomarker for breast cancer. The study also demonstrated that the MCF-10A cell line, an immortalized, non-tumorigenic model of human breast epithelial cells, displayed no basal expression of MT-3, nor was it induced by Cd²⁺. Treatment of the MCF-10A cells with the demethylation agent, 5-aza-2′-deoxycytidine, or the histone deacetylase inhibitor, MS-275, restored MT-3 mRNA expression. It was also shown that the MT-3 metal regulatory elements are potentially active binders of protein factors following treatment with these inhibitors suggesting that MT-3 expression may be subject to epigenetic regulation.     

Influence of alternate reproductive tactics and pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection on paternity and offspring performance in a lizard

Sexual selection theory predicts different optima for multiple mating in males and females. We used mating experiments and genetic paternity testing to disentangle pre- and postcopulatory mechanisms of sexual selection and alternate reproductive tactics in the highly promiscuous lizard Eulamprus heatwolei. Both sexes mated multiply: 30–60 % of clutches were sired by two to four fathers, depending on the experiment. Larger males sired more offspring when we allowed male contest competition: 52 % of large males but only 14 % of small males sired at least one offspring. In the absence of male contest competition, females mated promiscuously and there was no large male advantage: 80 % of large males and 90 % of small males sired at least one offspring, and there was no evidence for last-male precedence. Multiple mating did not yield obvious direct or indirect benefits to females. E. heatwolei represents a complex system in which males attempt to improve their fertility success by limiting rivals from access to females and through adopting alternate reproductive tactics. Conversely, females exhibit no obvious precopulatory mate choice but may influence fitness through postcopulatory means by either promoting sperm competition or through cryptic female choice. Our results support the hypothesis that female multiple mating in nonavian reptiles is best explained by the combined effect of mate encounter frequency and high benefits to males but low costs to females.     

European starling nestling response to chlorpyrifos exposure in a corn agroecosystem

European starling (Sturnus vulgaris) nestlings were used as a surrogate to study the effect of chlorpyrifos application to a corn agroecosystem on songbird reproduction. Chlorpyrifos was applied in a T‐band at 1.3 kg AI/ha, and residues were measured in soil, earthworms, ground‐dwelling insects, and diet items collected from the crop of starling nestlings. Chlorpyrifos levels in soil peaked at 34.2 μg/g, 4 days post‐application, and dissipated to trace levels by 64 days post‐application. Concentrations of chlorpyrifos in earthworms and ground‐dwelling insects reached 0.9 and 0.7 ug/g, respectively. Starling nestling diet items included invertebrates from eight orders with chlorpyrifos concentrations ranging from trace levels to 10.6 μg/g in earthworms. Nestling brain and plasma cholinesterase (ChE) activity and body mass measurements were taken at 3, 8, and 13 days post‐hatch (DPH). Adult starling fecundity was also measured. Body mass differences between treatment and reference site nestlings at 3 and 13 DPH were not significant at α = 0.05. However, 8 DPH nestlings from the Treatment Site had a transient reduction in weight (p = 0.03) when compared with 8 DPH reference nestlings. There were no significant differences in brain or plasma ChE activities of 3, 8, or 13 DPH nestlings. Further, multiple measures of fecundity (i.e., clutch size, hatching percentage, and fledging percentage) indicated that chlorpyrifos application did not affect starling nestling survival to fledging, as the values from the Treatment and Reference Site were nearly identical. This screening‐level study suggests that although one age group of starling nestlings from the Treatment Site weighed less than their Reference Site counterparts, a single T‐band application of chlorpyrifos did not impair starling nesting success.