Did the movie Finding Dory increase demand for blue tang fish?

Representations of wildlife in television and films have long been hypothesized to shape human-wildlife interactions. A recent example is Pixar’s film Finding Dory, which featured a blue tang fish (Paracanthurus hepatus) as the main character and was widely reported in the popular press to have increased the number of such fish in the pet trade. We use Bayesian posterior predictive counterfactual models to evaluate the movie’s effect on three metrics of societal behaviour. Although there was an increase in global online searches for the blue tang 2–3 weeks after the movie, we find no substantial evidence for an increase in imports of blue tang fish into the US, or in number of visitors to US aquaria compared to counterfactual expectations. It is vital that an evidence-based discourse is used when communicating potential impacts of popular culture on human-wildlife relationships to avoid loss of credibility and misdirection of conservation resources.

     

Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change

The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. We examined how qualitative network models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision making when data, time, and funding limitations restrict use of more demanding quantitative methods. We used QNMs to evaluate management interventions intended to promote the rebuilding of a collapsed stock of blue king crab (Paralithodes platypus) (BKC) around the Pribilof Islands (eastern Bering Sea) to determine how their potential efficacy may change under climate change. Based on stakeholder input and a literature review, we constructed a QNM that described the life cycle of BKC, key ecological interactions, potential climate-change impacts, relative interaction strengths, and uncertainty in terms of interaction strengths and link presence. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify key sources of prediction uncertainty. Under a scenario of no climate change, predicted increases in BKC were reliable only when stock enhancement was implemented in a BKC hatchery-program scenario. However, when climate change was accounted for, the intervention could not counteract its adverse impacts, which had an overall negative effect on BKC. The remaining management scenarios related to changes in fishing effort on BKC predators. For those scenarios, BKC outcomes were unreliable, but climate change further decreased the probability of observing recovery. Including information on relative interaction strengths increased the likelihood of predicting positive outcomes for BKC approximately 5–50% under the management scenarios. The largest gains in prediction precision will be made by reducing uncertainty associated with ecological interactions between adult BKC and red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus). Qualitative network models are useful options when data are limited, but they remain underutilized in conservation.     

Modelling temporal and spatial changes of PCBs in fish tissue from Lake Huron

A model has been developed to assess temporal and spatial changes in the concentration of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contaminant in whole fish from Lake Huron during the years 1980 to 2004. The model uses log PCB concentration as the response variable and includes time trend, within-lake variability and dependence on age, weight and length as explanatory variables. A preliminary examination of the data revealed that some values are recorded as below detection limits (thus leading to the left censoring), and the PCB concentration appears to show declines in latter years. To this end, parametric log-location-scale regression models used in survival analysis were employed. It has been found that the Weibull model yields a better fit than the log-logistic or the log-normal models. The analysis provides strong evidence that, starting in 1996, the level of PCB concentration showed steady decline, which is most contributed by the Canadian and US governments?? actions carried out earlier to reduce the load of toxic contaminants to the Great Lakes. Spatially, fish from the north of the lake is less contaminated than fish from the south. The pattern and magnitude of the estimated spatial and temporal trends can provide useful information regarding the safety of fish consumption, the setting of regularity limits, the identifiability of PCB sources and the effects of remedial actions in the future. In addition, the developed model is not restricted to the current application but could be used for the analysis of other contaminants.     

Defining the Reference Condition for Wadeable Streams in the Sand Hills Subdivision of the Southeastern Plains Ecoregion,USA

The Sand Hills subdivision of the Southeastern Plains ecoregion has been impacted by historical land uses over the past two centuries and, with the additive effects of contemporary land use, determining reference condition for streams in this region is a challenge. We identified reference condition based on the combined use of 3 independent selection methods. Method 1 involved use of a multivariate disturbance gradient derived from several stressors, method 2 was based on variation in channel morphology, and method 3 was based on passing 6 of 7 environmental criteria. Sites selected as reference from all 3 methods were considered primary reference, whereas those selected by 2 or 1 methods were considered secondary or tertiary reference, respectively. Sites not selected by any of the methods were considered non-reference. In addition, best professional judgment (BPJ) was used to exclude some sites from any reference class, and comparisons were made to examine the utility of BPJ. Non-metric multidimensional scaling indicated that use of BPJ may help designate non-reference sites when unidentified stressors are present. The macroinvertebrate community measures Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera richness and North Carolina Biotic Index showed no differences between primary and secondary reference sites when BPJ was ignored. However, there was no significant difference among primary, secondary, and tertiary reference sites when BPJ was used. We underscore the importance of classifying reference conditions, especially in regions that have endured significant anthropogenic activity. We suggest that the use of secondary reference sites may enable construction of models that target a broader set of management interests.     

Rapid Geomorphic and Habitat Stream Assessment Techniques Inform Restoration Differently Based on Levels of Stream Disturbance

Visual‐based rapid assessment techniques provide an efficient method for characterizing the restoration potential of streams, with many focusing on channel stability and instream habitat features. Few studies, however, have compared these techniques to see if they result in differing restoration priorities. Three rapid assessment techniques were contrasted at three wild trout streams in western New York with different amounts of channel disturbance. Two methods focused only on geomorphic stability, whereas the third addressed physical habitat condition. Habitat assessment scores were not correlated with scores for either geomorphic assessment method and they varied more between channels with different degrees of disturbance. A model based on dynamic equilibrium concepts best explains the variation among the streams and techniques because it accounts for a stream's capacity to maintain ecological integrity despite some inherent instability. Geomorphic indices can serve as effective proxies for biological indices in highly disturbed systems. Yet, this may not be the case in less disturbed systems, where geomorphic indices cannot differentiate channel adjustments that impact biota from those that do not. Dynamically stable streams can include both stable and unstable reaches locally as characterized by geomorphic methods and translating these results into restoration priorities may not be appropriate if interpretations are limited to the reach scale.     

Linking Biological Integrity and Watershed Models to Assess the Impacts of Historical Land Use and Climate Changes on Stream Health

Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R ² = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.     

Detection and visualization of storm hydrograph changes under urbanization: an impulse response approach

Urbanization often alters catchment storm responses, with a broad range of potentially significant environmental and engineering consequences. At a practical, site-specific management level, efficient and effective assessment and control of such downstream impacts requires a technical capability to rapidly identify development-induced storm hydrograph changes. The method should also speak specifically to alteration of internal watershed dynamics, require few resources to implement, and provide results that are intuitively accessible to all watershed stakeholders. In this short paper, we propose a potential method which might satisfy these criteria. Our emphasis lies upon the integration of existing concepts to provide tools for pragmatic, relatively low-cost environmental monitoring and management. The procedure involves calibration of rainfall-runoff time-series models in each of several successive time windows, which sample varying degrees of watershed urbanization. As implemented here, only precipitation and stream discharge or stage data are required. The readily generated unit impulse response functions of these time-series models might then provide a mathematically formal, yet visually based and intuitive, representation of changes in watershed storm response. Nominally, the empirical response functions capture such changes as soon as they occur, and the assessments of storm hydrograph alteration are independent of variability in meteorological forcing. We provide a preliminary example of how the technique may be applied using a low-order linear ARX model. The technique may offer a fresh perspective on such watershed management issues, and potentially also several advantages over existing approaches. Substantial further testing is required before attempting to apply the concept as a practical environmental management technique; some possible directions for additional work are suggested.