PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF THE NONLINEAR MUSKINGUM MODEL USING HARMONY SEARCH1

ABSTRACT: A newly developed heuristic algorithm, Harmony Search, is applied to the parameter estimation problem of the nonlinear Muskingum model. Harmony Search found better values of parameters in the nonlinear Muskingum model than five other methods including another heuristic method, genetic algorithm, in terms of SSQ (the sum of the square of the deviations between the observed and routed outflows), SAD (the sum of the absolute value of the deviations between the observed and routed outflows), DPO (deviations of peak of routed and actual flows), and DPOT (deviations of peak time of routed and actual outflow). Harmony Search also has the advantage that it does not require the process of assuming the initial values of design parameters. The sensitivity analysis of Harmony Memory Considering Rate showed that relatively large values of Harmony Memory Considering Rate makes the Harmony Search converge to a better solution.     

ESTIMATION OF POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN RECREATIONAL BENEFITS DUE TO SEDIMENTATION1

ABSTRACT: A travel cost model is developed to estimate the potential reductions in recreational benefits from sedimentation in Reelfoot Lake in northwestern Tennessee. In addition to the consumer surplus estimates generated by the model, three other aspects of the study were significant. First, the study applied a relatively untested methodology for deriving the opportunity cost of travel time. The study resulted in a value that is less than one-half of the Water Resource Council's “one-third of the wage rate” rule-of-thumb. Second, water quality perceptions were unsuccessfully incorporated into the model as a demand shifter. This raised questions as to the appropriate manner in which perceptions could be included in a travel cost model. Finally, a simple methodology was outlined by which estimates of the recreational value of Reelfoot Lake could be used to suggest how much cost could be justified for soil erosion control on agricultural land surrounding the lake.     

Estimation of the shadow prices of pollutants with production/environment inefficiency taken into account: a nonparametric directional distance function approach

This paper deals with the estimation of the shadow prices of pollutants with a nonparametric directional distance function approach, where the inefficiency involved in the production process is taken into account unlike the previous studies. The directional vector, which is critical to the estimation and subject to the criterion for an appropriate efficiency rule proposed here, is calculated by using the annual plans of power plants in terms of production and environment. In the empirical study for Korea's electric power industry during the period of 1990-1995, we find that the average shadow prices of sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and total suspended particulates (TSP) are approximately 10% lower than those calculated under the assumption of full efficiency. The methodology we propose and the findings obtained in the empirical study allow us to undertake better decision-making over a broad range of environmental policy issues.     

APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO FLOOD FORECASTING1

The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall‐runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km² watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth‐order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea.     

Miscibility and Biodegradability of Poly(Butylene Succinate)/Poly(Butylene Terephthalate) Blends

As one of the biodegradable polymers, the blend of poly(butylene succinate) and poly(butylene terephthalate) is dealt with in this study. In our previous work, it was demonstrated that PBS and PBT are immiscible not only from the changes of T _g but also from logG–log G plots. It is expected that the biodegradability of the blends could be improved by enhancing the miscibility. We tried to induce the transesterification reaction between two polyesters with various time intervals to enhance the miscibility of the blends. The extent of transesterification reaction was examined by ¹H-NMR. We utilized a dynamic mechanical thermal analyzer and a rotational rheometer to investigate the changes in miscibility. We also verified the biodegradability of PBS/PBT blends after the transesterification reaction by the composting method.     

Policy conflicts in the siting of natural gas pipelines

ABSTRACT

Researchers often focus on the most intense conflicts, skewing our perception of the diversity and nature of policy conflicts. The paper examines the discourse engaged in the siting of three pipeline projects under construction, each with varying levels of conflict, and one rejected project of high conflict. We analyze over 700 newspaper articles that span the life of each proposed pipeline and supplement the news media data with interviews. Using these data, we compare differences in actor types, frames, and behaviors in natural gas pipeline siting processes characterized by high, medium, and low conflict. Comparing the characteristics of energy siting conflicts at varying intensities helps support corresponding portrayals of how people engage in the policy process. This paper offers theoretical and empirical guidance on understanding policy conflict intensity variation.     

Mitigating nutrient leaching with a sub-surface drainage layer of granulated tires

Markets for scrap tires have expanded since the early 1990s with the development of value-added applications such as tire-derived fuel and crumb-rubber-amended asphalt. Granulated tires have also displayed the ability to adsorb volatile organic compounds, indicating that the rubber material can be a useful filter media. Sand-based root zones, typically used for golf course putting green and athletic field construction, lack sufficient cation exchange capacity to restrict nitrogen and phosphorus migration through the root zone and into sub-surface drainage systems. Therefore, the adsorptive properties of tire rubber for retaining nitrogen and phosphorus were studied when applied as a distinct sub-surface drainage or intermediate layer in golf course putting greens. A statistically significant reduction in the concentration of nitrate in leachate was achieved by replacing traditional pea gravel with equally sized granulated tires for the drainage layer media, although the mechanism of nitrate mitigation remains unclear. The results indicate that using granulated tires as a drainage layer or fill material beneath sand-based root zones does not compromise the function of the profile or quality of the vegetation while creating an environmentally beneficial and value-added option for scrap tire reuse.     

PM2.5 assessment in 21 European study centers of ECRHS II: Method and first winter results

The follow-up of a cohort of adults from 29 European centers of the former European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) I (1989-1992) will examine the long-term effects of exposure to ambient air pollution on the incidence, course, and prognosis of respiratory diseases, in particular asthma and decline in lung function. The purpose of this article is to describe the methodology and the European-wide quality control program for the collection of particles with 50% cut-off size of 2.5 microm aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) in the ECRHS II and to present the PM2.5 results from the winter period 2000-2001. Because PM2.5 is not routinely monitored in Europe, we measured PM2.5 mass concentrations in 21 participating centers to estimate background exposure in these cities. A standardized protocol was developed using identical equipment in each center (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Well Impactor Ninety-Six [WINS] and PQ167 from BGI, Inc.). Filters were weighed in a single central laboratory. Sampling was conducted for 7 days per month for a year. Winter mean PM2.5 mass concentrations (November 2000-February 2001) varied substantially, with Iceland reporting the lowest value (5 microg/m3) and northern Italy the highest (69 microg/m3). A standardized procedure appropriate for PM2.5 exposure assessment in a multicenter study was developed. We expect ECRHS II to have sufficient variation in exposure to assess long-term effects of air pollution in this cohort. Any bias caused by variation in the characteristics of the chosen monitoring location (e.g., proximity to traffic sources) will be addressed in later analyses. Given the homogenous spatial distribution of PM2.5, however, concentrations measured near traffic are not expected to differ substantially from those measured at urban background sites.     

Fluctuations of exposure rate at regional radiation monitoring stations in Korea

Based on hourly means of exposure rate between August 2000 and July 2001 at nine Regional Radiation Monitoring Stations (RRMS) in Korea, we analyzed spatio-temporal characteristics of exposure rate. The mean and fluctuations of exposure rates were 99 and 3.8 nGy h(-1), respectively. The hourly exposure rate over 9 RRMS indicated a diurnal pattern with the exposure rates reaching a maximum between 5:00 and 8:00 a.m. in the early morning and a broad minimum between 4:00 and 10:00 p.m. in the afternoon. The fluctuations of exposure rate in the inland areas were less than 3.2 nGy h(-1), and those of exposure rate in coastal areas were larger than 3.9 nGy h(-1). The frequency distribution of exposure rates had one peak around the mean and was to be skewed to the right or positively skewed and its tails were fatter than those of a normal distribution. The interrelations of exposure rates at each station generally decreased with the distance between the stations. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis showed that almost all (99.9%) of exposure rate fluctuations were described by simultaneous variations. The spatial distribution of the first EOF modes of actual, low-pass (periods longer than one month) and high-pass (periods shorter than one month) exposure rate series were similar to each other.     

A new approach to characterize biodegradation of organics by molecular mass distribution in landfill leachate

This study provides biodegradability of organics in leachate according to their molecular mass distributions (<0.5, 0.5 to 1, 1 to 3, 10, and >10 KDa). Organics with molecular mass values lower than 0.5 KDa were the predominant species in the raw leachate filtrate, and the aerated lagoon process was very effective in treating these highly biodegradable organics; the Fenton's oxidation process was very effective in treating not-so-biodegradable organics with molecular mass values higher than 0.5 KDa, but a portion of these organics were converted into organics <0.5 KDa after Fenton's oxidation. An oxygen uptake measurement using a respirometer was more sensitive than a conventional biochemical oxygen demand measurement to evaluate bioactivities, especially when bioactivities were low.