Flood resilience: consolidating knowledge between and within critical infrastructure sectors

Flood resilience has been rising up the political, economic and social agendas. Taking an integrated systems approach, using the right design guidance and tools and ensuring that education is in place for all stakeholders are three themes which are intrinsically linked to delivering flood resilience. This paper reviews these themes across the academic research, policy landscape and practitioner approaches, drawing conclusions on the way forward to increase our societies resilience to floods. The term ‘flood resilience’ is being increasingly used, however, it remains to be clearly defined and implemented. The UK, USA and Australia are leading the way in considering what flood resilience really means, but our review has found few examples of action underpinned by an understanding of systems and complexity. This review investigates how performance objectives & indicators are currently interpreted in guidance documents. It provides an in-depth exploration of the methods, that although developed through European and US expertise, can be used for worldwide application. Our analysis highlights that resilience is often embedded in engineering education and frequently linked to risk. This may however, mask the importance of resilience and where it differs from risk. With £2.6 billion to be spent in the UK over the next 6 years on strengthening the country’s flood and coastal defences, this is the opportunity to rethink resilience from a systems approach, and embed that learning into education and professional development of engineers. Our conclusions indicate how consolidating flood resilience knowledge between and within critical infrastructure sectors is the way forward to deliver flood resilience engineering.     

Cryptocurrency: governance for what was meant to be ungovernable

Cryptocurrencies have the potential to revolutionize the exchange of information and money through blockchain and distributed ledger technologies. Despite the promise of such underlying technologies, their reliance upon distributed consensus processes to approve software updates raises the potential for governance failures to destabilize a given cryptocurrency. These governance failures, known as ‘hard forks,’ can separate a cryptocurrency into two rival camps. Where such events can destabilize a given cryptocurrency’s value, and instill distrust in the capacity of a cryptocurrency to survive as a reliable vehicle of exchange, it is imperative for the cryptocurrency community to improve their governance processes and limit the potential for hard forks to occur. While the distributed nature of cryptocurrency governance makes any traditional governing process unlikely to succeed, anticipatory approaches that establish thresholds and metrics to determine when software reform is necessary may help alleviate the governance failures presented by many hard forks.     

Spatial and temporal land use and carbon stock changes in Uganda: implications for a future REDD strategy

Using a map overlay procedure in a Geographical Information System environment, we quantify and map major land use and land cover (LULC) change patterns in Uganda period 1990–2005 and determine whether the transitions were random or systematic. The analysis reveals that the most dominant systematic land use change processes were deforestation (woodland to subsistence farmland—3.32%); forest degradation (woodland to bushland (4.01%) and grassland (4.08%) and bush/grassland conversion to cropland (5.5%) all resulting in a net reduction in forests (6.1%). Applying an inductive approach based on logistic regression and trend analyses of observed changes we analyzed key drivers of LULC change. Significant predictors of forest land use change included protection status, market access, poverty, slope, soil quality and presence/absence of a stream network. Market access, poverty and population all decreased the log odds of retaining forests. In addition, poverty also increased the likelihood of degradation. An increase in slope decreased the likelihood of deforestation. Using the stock change and gain/loss approaches we estimated the change in forest carbon stocks and emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Results indicate a negligible increase in forest carbon stocks (3,260 t C yr-1) in the period 1990–2005 when compared to the emissions due to deforestation and forest degradation (2.67 million t C yr-1). In light of the dominant forest land use change patterns, the drivers and change in carbon stocks, we discuss options which could be pursued to implement a future national REDD plus strategy which considers livelihood, biodiversity and climate change mitigation objectives.     

Forest policies and programs affecting vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

Due to large scale afforestation programs and forest conservation legislations, India’s total forest area seems to have stabilized or even increased. In spite of such efforts, forest fragmentation and degradation continues, with forests being subject to increased pressure due to anthropogenic factors. Such fragmentation and degradation is leading to the forest cover to change from very dense to moderately dense and open forest and 253 km² of very dense forest has been converted to moderately dense forest, open forest, scrub and non-forest (during 2005–2007). Similarly, there has been a degradation of 4,120 km² of moderately dense forest to open forest, scrub and non-forest resulting in a net loss of 936 km² of moderately dense forest. Additionally, 4,335 km² of open forest have degraded to scrub and non-forest. Coupled with pressure due to anthropogenic factors, climate change is likely to be an added stress on forests. Forest sector programs and policies are major factors that determine the status of forests and potentially resilience to projected impacts of climate change. An attempt is made to review the forest policies and programs and their implications for the status of forests and for vulnerability of forests to projected climate change. The study concludes that forest conservation and development policies and programs need to be oriented to incorporate climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.     

Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m²/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (−5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (−2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS—a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.     

Building responsiveness to climate change through community based adaptation in Bangladesh

This article explores the drivers, benefits, and challenges to climate change adaptation in Bangladesh. It specifically investigates the “Community Based Adaptation to Climate Change through Coastal Afforestation Program,” a 5-year $5 million adaptation scheme being funded and implemented in part by the Government of Bangladesh, United Nations Development Program, and Global Environment Facility. The article explores how the CBACC-CA builds various types of adaptive capacity in Bangladesh and the extent its design and implementation offers lessons for other adaptation programs around the world. The first part of the study begins by describing its research methods consisting of research interviews, site visits, and a literature review. It then summarizes six primary sectors vulnerable to climate change in Bangladesh: water resources and coastal zones, infrastructure and human settlements, agriculture and food security, forestry and biodiversity, fisheries, and human health. The article next describes the genesis and background behind the CBACC-CA, with an emphasis on components that promote capacity development, demonstration projects, risk reduction, and knowledge management. The article concludes that technology by itself is only a partial component of successful adaptation efforts, and that multiple and integrated adaptation measures that cut across sectors and social, institutional, and infrastructural dimensions are needed to truly build resilience and effectiveness.     

Application of Pesticide Sprays to Fresh Produce: A Risk Assessment for Hepatitis A and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Salmonella</Emphasis>

The purpose of this study was to quantify the transfer of viral and bacterial pathogens in water used to dilute pesticides sprayed onto the surfaces of cantaloupe, iceberg lettuce, and bell peppers. The average percent transfer of bacteria was estimated to range from 0.00021 to 9.4%, while average viral transfer ranged from 0.055 to 4.2%, depending on the type of produce. Based on these values the concentrations of hepatitis A virus (HAV) and Salmonella in water necessary to achieve a 1:10,000 annual risk of infection were calculated. Under worst case scenario assumptions, in which a pesticide is applied on the same day that the produce is harvested and when maximum transfer values are used, concentrations of 1.5 × 10⁻³ CFU Salmonella or 2.7 × 10⁻⁷ MPN HAV per 100 ml of the water used for application would result in 1:10,000 annual infection risk to anyone who consumes the fresh produce. If harvesting does not occur until at least 14 days after the application, to produce the same risk of infection, the numbers of Salmonella in 100 ml of water used to dilute the pesticides will be greater by up to five orders of magnitude, while the HAV numbers will have increased by up to two orders of magnitude. Based on the reported concentrations of enteric viruses in surface and ground waters in the United States, a 1:10,000 annual risk of infection could easily be exceeded with some groundwater sources used in the United States. To reduce the risks associated with the consumption of fresh produce, water used to prepare pesticides in spray applications should be evaluated for its microbiological quality.     

Rates of spread of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rosa rugosa</Emphasis> (Japanese Rose) determined by GIS on a coastal sand-dune system in Northwest England

The invasive non-native shrub Rosa rugosa (Japanese Rose) is well-established in many northwest European countries where, especially on coastal sand-dunes, it forms large dominant stands with adverse effects on semi-natural vegetation and biota of high conservation status. Its recent increase in England’s largest dune system on the Sefton Coast in north Merseyside led to an investigation into its rate of spread. Using digitised aerial photographs and GIS methodology, sample patches of old-established R. rugosa were found to have grown in area by an average of 22 % per annum between 1989 and 2013. This rate of increase is comparable to that found in Denmark and higher than reported for several other woody plants in coastal dunes. In the absence of management, R. rugosa could soon dominate large areas on the Sefton Coast, with serious consequences for amenity and the nature conservation interest of the dune system.     

High amounts of free aromatic amino acids in the protein-like fluorescence of water-dissolved organic matter

Fluorescence spectroscopy is widely used to study water pollution. The fluorescence of water natural organic matter can be classified into two groups: the protein-like fluorescence originating from aromatic amino acids and the humic fluorescence originating from humic substances. Actually, the precise molecular origin of the protein-like fluorescence is unknown because this fluorescence may be caused by either free amino acids, peptides or proteins. Therefore, we studied the molecular origin of the protein-like fluorescence of Suwannee River natural organic matter and fractions A, B and C + D obtained by size exclusion chromatography/polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Fractions were analyzed by reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography. The electrophoretic mobilities of fractions varied in the order C + D > B > A and the molecular size in the opposite order. Our results show that the protein-like fluorescence is almost exclusively located in high molecular size fraction A and medium molecular size fraction B. Retention times and fluorescence emission spectra of authentic free aromatic amino acids tyrosine and tryptophan were identical with the retention times and emission spectra of several chromatographic peaks of fractions A and B. More than 50 % of the protein-like fluorescence is due to free aromatic amino acids incorporated in water natural organic matter.