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821.
Marc Gracia Nacima Meghelli Lluís Comas Javier Retana 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(2):349-358
The current state of Mediterranean mountain areas has been driven by two main factors: intense traditional human activity
and the dynamics of the ecosystem itself. In this study, we examine land-cover changes in a National Park in the Pyrenees
mountains (NE Iberian Peninsula), which was designated a protected area 55 years ago. First, we have analyzed spatio-temporal
changes in land-cover pattern and forest dynamics from 1957 to 2005. During this period, land-cover dynamics consisted of
two main processes: (i) expansion of the forest area and (ii) increasing cover of forests already present in 1957. To analyze
the role of the conservation level of the park, we have also compared the results obtained within the park with those of unprotected,
peripheral areas. In the two areas with different protection level, dense forests increased throughout the period because
of the reduction in forestry activities. The peripheral area showed a higher rate of forest-cover change from 1957 to 2005
compared to the National Park. This higher increase in forest cover in the peripheral area could be related to a higher proportion
in the National Park of screes and rocky areas and to the decline and transformation of forest activities in these peripheral,
lower elevation areas. 相似文献
822.
Climate change is one of the main factors that will affect biodiversity in the future and may even cause species extinctions. We suggest a methodology to derive a general relationship between biodiversity change and global warming. In conjunction with other pressure relationships, our relationship can help to assess the combined effect of different pressures to overall biodiversity change and indicate areas that are most at risk. We use a combination of an integrated environmental model (IMAGE) and climate envelope models for European plant species for several climate change scenarios to estimate changes in mean stable area of species and species turnover. We show that if global temperature increases, then both species turnover will increase, and mean stable area of species will decrease in all biomes. The most dramatic changes will occur in Northern Europe, where more than 35% of the species composition in 2100 will be new for that region, and in Southern Europe, where up to 25% of the species now present will have disappeared under the climatic circumstances forecasted for 2100. In Mediterranean scrubland and natural grassland/steppe systems, arctic and tundra systems species turnover is high, indicating major changes in species composition in these ecosystems. The mean stable area of species decreases mostly in Mediterranean scrubland, grassland/steppe systems and warm mixed forests. 相似文献
823.
Farming in higher latitudes is generally believed to benefit from a warmer climate due to extended growing season, reduced risk of frost, availability of more productive cultivars, and an opening potential of farming in northern locations. We analyzed the impact of climate change on production of cereals in Russia and found that this general perception of beneficiary effect of a warmer climate is unlikely to hold, primarily due to increasing risk of droughts in the most important agricultural areas of the country. Past impacts of droughts on food security throughout the twentieth century suggest that a number of adaptation options are available to mitigate the increasing risks of crop failure. We analyze the effectiveness of these measures in connection with a set of climate change projections, under two contrasting scenarios of interregional grain trade: “Fortress Market” and “Open Market.” 相似文献
824.
James S. Risbey 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(1):197-203
Water resources in Australia are sensitive to changes in rainfall. Ongoing droughts in south-west and south-east Australia are stressing water resources in the major cities and in agricultural regions. Climate change scenarios for Australia include reasonable prospects of long-term drying, which would exacerbate these issues. The dryer scenarios would entail major readjustments and costs on natural and human systems. 相似文献
825.
826.
Payments for Environmental Services in Latin America as a Tool for Restoration and Rural Development
Payments for Environmental Services (PES) can encourage projects that enhance restoration, production, and rural development.
When projects promote differentiated systems by paying farmers for the provision of services, the application of PES requires
evaluation of the environmental services provided by each system. We present evaluations of carbon stocks and biodiversity
in pure and mixed native tree plantations in Costa Rica. To illustrate how monetary values can be assigned, we discuss a project
that awarded PES to silvopastoral systems in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Colombia based on carbon stocks and biodiversity.
PES can promote positive environmental attitudes in farmers. Currently this project is being scaled up in Colombia based on
their positive experiences with PES as a tool to promote adoption. Compared to PES systems that include only one environmental
service, systems that incorporate bundling or layering of multiple services can make sustainable land uses more attractive
to farmers and reduce perverse incentives. 相似文献
827.
Policy and research issues in the framing and qualities of uncertainties in risks are analyzed, based on the assessments of
dioxin-like compounds (DLCs) and other ingredients in Baltic Sea fish, a high-profile case of governance. Risks are framed
broadly, to then focus on dioxins and beneficial fatty acids, fish consumption, human health, and science-management links.
Hierarchies of uncertainty (data, model, decision rule, and epistemic) and ambiguity (of values) are used to identify issues
of scientific and policy contestation and opportunities for resolving them. The associated complexity of risks is illustrated
by risk–benefit analyses of fish consumption and by evaluations of guideline values, highlighting value contents and policy
factors in presumably scientific decision criteria, and arguments used in multi-dimensional risk and benefit comparisons.
These comparisons pose challenges to narrow assessments centered, for e.g., on toxicants or on food benefits, and to more
many-sided and balanced risk communication and management. It is shown that structured and contextualized treatment of uncertainties
and ambiguities in a reflexive approach can inform balances between wide and narrow focus, detail and generality, and evidence
and precaution. 相似文献
828.
Surface sediments of the lagoons of Lomé, Togo, were analyzed for mercury, methylmercury, and trace elements. Concentrations
were greater than typical for natural lagoon sediments, and with greater variability within the Eastern lagoon compared to
the Western one. The Eastern lagoon is larger and has been dredged in the past, while the Western lagoon, which also receives
major waste inputs, has not been dredged and shows less tidal flushing. Accordingly, one naturally believes that the Eastern
lagoon is cleaner and probably safe to use due to its natural resources, including fishes to eat. Unexpectedly, we describe
here that mercury methylation was greater in the Eastern lagoon, indicating increased bioavailability of mercury, as probably
facilitated by past dredging that decreased solid-phase retention of inorganic mercury. Urbanization has historically been
more developed in the southern part of the lagoons, which is still reflected in contamination levels of sediment despite dredging,
probably because sources of contamination are still more important there today. Such urban contamination emphasizes the need
to regulate waste discharges and possible airborne contamination in growing cities of developing countries, and implements
environmental and public health monitoring, especially in relation to misbelieves systematically associated with the cleansing
effect of dredging activity. 相似文献
829.
830.
This study projected responses of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to three climate change scenarios at a resolution
of 5 km × 5 km across the state of Louisiana, USA. In addition, we assessed uncertainties associated with the NPP projection
at the grid and state levels. Climate data of the scenarios were derived from Community Climate System Model outputs. Changes
in annual NPP between 2000 and 2050 were projected with the forest ecosystem model PnET-II. Results showed that forest productivity
would increase under climate change scenarios A1B and A2, but with scenario B1, it would peak during 2011–2020 and then decline.
The projected average NPP under B1 over the years from 2000 to 2050 was significantly different from those under A1B and A2.
Forest NPP appeared to be primarily a function of temperature, not precipitation. Uncertainties of the NPP projection were
due to large spatial resolution of the climate variables. Overall, this study suggested that in order to project effects of
climate change on forest ecosystem at regional level, modeling uncertainties could be reduced by increasing the spatial resolution
of the climate projections. 相似文献