Finite area smoothing with generalized distance splines

Most conventional spatial smoothers smooth with respect to the Euclidean distance between observations, even though this distance may not be a meaningful measure of spatial proximity, especially when boundary features are present. When domains have complicated boundaries leakage (the inappropriate linking of parts of the domain which are separated by physical barriers) can occur. To overcome this problem, we develop a method of smoothing with respect to generalized distances, such as within domain distances. We obtain the generalized distances between our points and then use multidimensional scaling to find a configuration of our observations in a Euclidean space of 2 or more dimensions, such that the Euclidian distances between points in that space closely approximate the generalized distances between the points. Smoothing is performed over this new point configuration, using a conventional smoother. To mitigate the problems associated with smoothing in high dimensions we use a generalization of thin plate spline smoothers proposed by Duchon (Constructive theory of functions of several variables, pp 85–100, 1977). This general method for smoothing with respect to generalized distances improves on the performance of previous within-domain distance spatial smoothers, and often provides a more natural model than the soap film approach of Wood et al. (J R Stat Soc Ser B Stat Methodol 70(5):931–955, 2008). The smoothers are of the linear basis with quadratic penalty type easily incorporated into a range of statistical models.     

Neophobia and social tolerance are related to breeding group size in a semi-colonial bird

In semi-colonial species, some individuals choose to breed in isolation while others aggregate in breeding colonies. The origin and the maintenance of this pattern have been questioned, and inherited phenotype dependency of group breeding benefits has been invoked as one of the possible mechanisms for the evolution of semi-coloniality. Using field observations and behavioural tests in the semi-colonial barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), we tested the hypothesis that breeding group size is related to personality. We measured neophobia (the fear and avoidance of new things) and social tolerance of adults and showed that these two independent traits of personality are strongly related to breeding group size. The biggest colonies hosted birds with higher neophobia, and larger groups also hosted females with higher social tolerance. This parallel between group size and group composition in terms of individual personality offers a better understanding of the observed diversity in breeding group size in this species. Further studies are, however, needed to better understand the origin of the link between individual personality and group breeding strategies.     

New insights into the benefits of flood warnings: Results from a household survey in England and Wales

The flood defence agency in England and Wales has been pursuing a programme of flood warning system enhancement, engaging householders at risk in improving their warning responses. The immediate aim of this paper is to test and revise a model of economic benefits of warnings, but the survey data also generate insights into the constraints acting upon flood warning responses. Damage saving is less than previously anticipated: warning reliability and householder availability problems limit savings. Warnings are less likely to be received by those in lower social grades, and flood warning lead time is a factor in avoiding damage. The survey data indicate the complexities involved in improving flood warning response, and provide policy pointers.     

Contextual influences on national level flood risk communication

With high profile flooding events and increasing risk and probable damages of flooding in the future flood risk management (FRM) in England and Wales has undergone substantial changes over the last decade. The contextual influences on flood risk communication in the areas of flood forecasting, warning and response, spatial planning and development control and flood insurance at a national level are investigated in this paper. Research is based on qualitative interviews with 21 representatives of key organisations and activities at a national level of FRM. Drawing on communication theory the research highlights the key contextual features at play: the characteristics of communication flow through organisations, the importance of policy as a communication tool informed and constrained by flood events, organisational agendas, communication approaches and the development of knowledge and technology. The paper describes the influence of clear policy guidance on activities in certain government FRM communication initiatives and the commercial imperative driving the insurance industry activities.     

The response of two ecologically important Antarctic invertebrates (Sterechinus neumayeri and Parborlasia corrugatus) to reduced seawater pH: effects on fertilisation and embryonic development

Ocean acidification, or the lowering of seawater pH, is caused by sequestration of atmospheric CO₂ into the oceans. This study investigated the effects of present-day pH 8.0, predicted ocean surface pH for the years 2100 and 2300 (pH 7.7 and pH 7.3, respectively) and an extreme pH (pH 7.0) on fertilisation and embryogenesis in the Antarctic nemertean worm Parborlasia corrugatus and sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri. Fertilisation success was not affected by pH in P. corrugatus across a range of sperm concentrations. Fertilisation success in S. neumayeri declined significantly in pH 7.0 and 7.3 seawater, but only at a low sperm concentration. Seawater pH had no effect on the rate of egg cleavage in S. neumayeri, or the proportion of abnormal embryos 1-day post-fertilisation. P. corrugatus embryogenesis was also relatively robust to pH changes, with a significant effect detected only when the seawater pH was decreased to 7.0. While fertilisation and early cell division were relatively robust, later development through to the gastrula was sensitive to pH. In S. neumayeri, an effect of pH on development was evident by the gastrula stage, while there were significantly more abnormal P. corrugatus embryos in pH 7.0 up to the blastula stage, and in pH 7.0 and pH 7.3 at the coeloblastula stage. Our results are similar to the observations on other marine invertebrate species where fertilisation and early embryonic development are generally robust to lowered seawater pH, while the older coeloblastula and gastrula stages are more responsive. We also found no evidence to suggest that Antarctic species are more adversely affected by lower seawater pH compared with the findings for non-Antarctic counterparts. We conclude that in the two species we examined, near-future decreases in pH (decreases of ≈0.3–0.5 pH units) may not have a significant effect on fertilisation and early embryogenesis, while predicted longer term decreases (decreases of ≈0.7–0.77 pH units) could reduce fertilisation success in S. neumayeri if sperm concentrations are low and may increase abnormalities in P. corrugatus during later embryogenesis.     

Poor acclimation capacities in Antarctic marine ectotherms

Animals can respond to temperature change by the following means: using physiological flexibility (including acclimation); or adapting; or migrating, with acclimation proposed as the major mechanism dictating prospects for survival in marine groups. In this study, 6 species of Antarctic invertebrate covering 4 phyla, Echinodermata, Mollusca, Brachiopoda and Crustacea were subjected to acclimation trials at 3°C for 60 days. Using acute upper lethal temperatures as a metric of ability to acclimate, only one species (Marseniopsis mollis) increased its acute upper limit. Furthermore, analysis of oxygen consumption on the urchin Sterechinus neumayeri and the amphipod Paraceradocus gibber showed their metabolic rates were also not compensated over the 60-day exposure period. Thus, 5 out of 6 species failed to acclimate to temperatures only 3.5°C above the annual average and 1–2°C above current summer maximum values. We discuss the proposal that the abilities of Antarctic marine species to adjust to elevated environmental temperatures are as limited, if not more so, than tropical species.     

Investigation of hit-and-run crash occurrence and severity using real-time loop detector data and hierarchical Bayesian binary logit model with random effects

Objective: Most of the extensive research dedicated to identifying the influential factors of hit-and-run (HR) crashes has utilized typical maximum likelihood estimation binary logit models, and none have employed real-time traffic data. To fill this gap, this study focused on investigating factors contributing to HR crashes, as well as the severity levels of HR.

Methods: This study analyzed 4-year crash and real-time loop detector data by employing hierarchical Bayesian models with random effects within a sequential logit structure. In addition to evaluation of the impact of random effects on model fitness and complexity, the prediction capability of the models was examined. Stepwise incremental sensitivity and specificity were calculated and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to graphically illustrate the predictive performance of the model.

Results: Among the real-time flow variables, the average occupancy and speed from the upstream detector were observed to be positively correlated with HR crash possibility. The average upstream speed and speed difference between upstream and downstream speeds were correlated with the occurrence of severe HR crashes. In addition to real-time factors, other variables found influential for HR and severe HR crashes were length of segment, adverse weather conditions, dark lighting conditions with malfunctioning street lights, driving under the influence of alcohol, width of inner shoulder, and nighttime.

Conclusions: This study suggests the potential traffic conditions of HR and severe HR occurrence, which refer to relatively congested upstream traffic conditions with high upstream speed and significant speed deviations on long segments. The above findings suggest that traffic enforcement should be directed toward mitigating risky driving under the aforementioned traffic conditions. Moreover, enforcement agencies may employ alcohol checkpoints to counter driving under the influence (DUI) at night. With regard to engineering improvements, wider inner shoulders may be constructed to potentially reduce HR cases and street lights should be installed and maintained in working condition to make roads less prone to such crashes.     

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in Arctic environments: indicator contaminants for assessing local and remote anthropogenic sources in a pristine ecosystem in change

A first review on occurrence and distribution of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) is presented. The literature survey conducted here was initiated by the current Assessment of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). This first review on the occurrence and environmental profile of PPCPs in the Arctic identified the presence of 110 related substances in the Arctic environment based on the reports from scientific publications, national and regional assessments and surveys, as well as academic research studies (i.e., PhD theses). PPCP residues were reported in virtually all environmental compartments from coastal seawater to high trophic level biota. For Arctic environments, domestic and municipal wastes as well as sewage are identified as primary release sources. However, the absence of modern waste water treatment plants (WWTPs), even in larger settlements in the Arctic, is resulting in relatively high release rates for selected PPCPs into the receiving Arctic (mainly) aquatic environment. Pharmaceuticals are designed with specific biochemical functions as a part of an integrated therapeutically procedure. This biochemical effect may cause unwanted environmental toxicological effects on non-target organisms when the compound is released into the environment. In the Arctic environments, pharmaceutical residues are released into low to very low ambient temperatures mainly into aqueous environments. Low biodegradability and, thus, prolonged residence time must be expected for the majority of the pharmaceuticals entering the aquatic system. The environmental toxicological consequence of the continuous PPCP release is, thus, expected to be different in the Arctic compared to the temperate regions of the globe. Exposure risks for Arctic human populations due to consumption of contaminated local fish and invertebrates or through exposure to resistant microbial communities cannot be excluded. However, the scientific results reported and summarized here, published in 23 relevant papers and reports (see Table S1 and following references), must still be considered as indication only. Comprehensive environmental studies on the fate, environmental toxicology, and distribution profiles of pharmaceuticals applied in high volumes and released into the Nordic environment under cold Northern climate conditions should be given high priority by national and international authorities.