Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

Olfactory cues,genetic relatedness and female mate choice in the agile antechinus (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Antechinus agilis</Emphasis>)

Females show mate preferences for males that are genetically dissimilar to themselves in a variety of taxa, but how females choose these males is not clearly understood. In this study, we examined the effects of olfactory stimuli and genetic relatedness on female mate choice in a small carnivorous marsupial, the agile antechinus (Antechinus agilis), during two breeding seasons. Captive female antechinus in oestrus were provided with a combination of male urine and body scent from two novel males, one more genetically similar and one more dissimilar to the females, in a Y-maze olfactometer. Genetic relatedness between females and pairs of males was determined using highly polymorphic, species-specific, microsatellite markers. Females consistently chose to visit the scents of males that were genetically dissimilar to themselves first, spent significantly more time near the source of those scents and showed more sexual and non-exploratory behaviours near those scents. These data demonstrate that chemosensory cues are important in mate choice in the agile antechinus and that females prefer males that are genetically dissimilar to themselves.     

Chemical availability of arsenic and antimony in industrial soils

Total concentrations and extractable fractionations of As and Sb were determined in soil samples from former mining sites in Scotland and Italy. Pseudo-total levels of As and Sb in the sample were between 50–17,428 mg/kg and 10–1,187 mg/kg (Scotland), and 16–691 mg/kg and 1.63–11.44 mg/kg (Italy). Between 0.001–0.63% and <0.001−8.82% of the total soil As and Sb, were extractable using, a single extraction bioavailability estimate. Data from an As-specific extraction procedure revealed that up to 60% of As was associated to amorphous Fe-Al oxyhydroxide phase in all soils. A non-specific-sequential extraction test also showed As to be strongly associated with Fe (and Al) oxyhydroxides at both locations. In the case of Sb, in addition to the crystalline Fe-oxide bound Sb the Al-silicate phase also appeared to be significant. At both sites Sb appears to be chemically more accessible than As with consistent availability despite the varied origin and host soil properties.     

Understanding the context of alcohol impaired driving for fatal crash–involved drivers: A descriptive case analysis

Objective: The objective of this study was to understand the social context and circumstances surrounding alcohol-impaired driving prior to fatal crash involvement for drivers with an illegal blood alcohol concentration (BAC ≥ 0.05 g/100 ml or 0.00 g/100 ml for restricted license holders).

Methods: Coroners' case reports investigating fatal crashes in South Australia over a 3-year period (2008–2010) were examined. The personal and crash characteristics of drivers with an illegal BAC were compared with those who had a legal BAC. For each driver with an illegal BAC, information was recorded including characteristics of last trip, location and social context of alcohol consumption, quantity and type of alcohol consumed, BAC level, presence of drugs, perceived alcohol intoxication, and alcohol dependence. Official traffic offense records were also obtained.

Results: Of the 284 fatal crashes included in the study, 34% (n = 95) involved a driver or rider with an illegal BAC. Prior to the crash, alcohol was most frequently consumed by drivers in rural areas, within private homes, and was part of normal social activities. Drivers recorded a high level of alcohol impairment, with a mean BAC of 0.173 g/100 ml and a level of alcohol dependence that was above the Australian national average (7.4 vs. 3.9%). In addition, 23% of drivers were known to be experiencing psychological stress at the time of the crash. The results also confirm that drink driving recidivism continues to be a significant problem, with 44% of drivers recording at least one prior alcohol driving offense.

Conclusions: Alcohol-impaired driving continues to be a leading cause of fatal crashes. The popularity of drinking at home, particularly in rural areas, has implications for police enforcement strategies and suggests that drink driving interventions that focus on community values and looking after friends might be beneficial. Importantly, the study highlights the need for a broader holistic approach to reduce the high levels of alcohol consumption and alcohol dependence underlying drink driving behavior.     

Crash risk perception of sleepy driving and its comparisons with drink driving and speeding: Which behavior is perceived as the riskiest?

Objective: Driver sleepiness is a major crash risk factor but may be underrecognized as a risky driving behavior. Sleepy driving is usually rated as less of a road safety issue than more well-known risky driving behaviors, such as drink driving and speeding. The objective of this study was to compare perception of crash risk of sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding.

Methods: Three hundred Australian drivers completed a questionnaire that assessed crash risk perceptions for sleepy driving, drink driving, and speeding. Additionally, the participants' perceptions of crash risk were assessed for 5 different contextual scenarios that included different levels of sleepiness (low, high), driving duration (short, long), and time of day/circadian influences (afternoon, nighttime) of driving.

Results: The analysis confirmed that sleepy driving was considered a risky driving behavior but not as risky as high levels of speeding (P < .05). Yet, the risk of crashing at 4 a.m. was considered as equally risky as low levels of speeding (10 km over the limit). The comparisons of the contextual scenarios revealed driving scenarios that would arguably be perceived as quite risky because time of day/circadian influences were not reported as high risk.

Conclusions: The results suggest a lack of awareness or appreciation of circadian rhythm functioning, particularly the descending phase of circadian rhythm that promotes increased sleepiness in the afternoon and during the early hours of the morning. Yet, the results suggested an appreciation of the danger associated with long-distance driving and driver sleepiness. Further efforts are required to improve the community's awareness of the impairing effects from sleepiness and, in particular, knowledge regarding the human circadian rhythm and the increased sleep propensity during the circadian nadir.