Farmer typology, future scenarios and the implications for ecosystem service provision: a case study from south-eastern Spain

Farming communities are increasingly expected to manage their agricultural activities in ways that ensure sustainable flows of a wide range of ecosystem services for society. The land use and management choices that farmers make are dependent upon their socio-economic characteristics and background, and in turn have important implications for the landscape and associated ecosystem services. Thus, a better understanding about the linkages between the characteristics of farmers, farm management and land use is important for managing multifunctional agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we first develop a typology of farmers for Torrealvilla catchment in Murcia, Spain, according to the characteristics of their households and farm management (e.g. the farmer’s age, household income, water access, land tenure and farm labour). This analysis distinguishes six types of farmers. Secondly, we analyse the link between farmer typology and the farmers’ responses to a number of scenarios. The scenarios describe different likely changes to agriculture in the catchment in terms of environmental constraints (irrigation water availability and rainfall pattern) and environmental policy regulation (water taxation and subsidies). This exercise enables us to explore the range of future land use changes that are likely to occur in the study area. The results indicate that: rain-fed agriculture is expected to experience gradual but extensive abandonment; vegetable/fruit farming and pig/animal rearing are likely to stagnate or even decline; and growing of grapes is likely to expand. Thirdly, we qualitatively evaluate how future land use changes are likely to affect key ecosystem services in the study area including future agricultural production and associated local income generation, erosion control, maintenance of the groundwater table and various cultural services associated with a heterogeneous agro-ecosystem. Particular changes such as expansion of grape production will increase food production and local income at the cost of further depletion of the aquifer and increased risk of salinisation. The outcomes of the study highlight that, to be effective, the design of agri-environmental schemes and other government interventions (e.g. specific compulsory regulations on farming practices and associated water use) should carefully take into account the characteristics of the farmers within the area of interest, their land uses and the possible diversity of responses to policy and environmental drivers. Opportunities exist for future studies quantifying the extent of the impacts of ecosystem service provision through formal models combining farmers’ land use decision-making and spatially explicit modelling of landscape processes.     

Density-dependent migratory waves in the marine pelagic ecosystem

The migration of large aggregations of animals that sweep through the landscape is a phenomenon with large consequences in many ecosystems. It has been suggested that such migrations are mediated by resource depletion. Under this hypothesis it has been shown that simple foraging rules may generate density-dependent migratory waves (DDMW) in which the speed and amplitude increase with animal abundance. We tested these predictions on a 32-year data set of the spatial distribution of the two youngest age groups of a small pelagic schooling fish, the capelin (Mallotus villosus), by the end of their annual feeding migration in the Barents Sea. Our data suggest that the two age groups divided the Barents Sea by forming migratory waves that moved in opposite directions. The aggregation and spatial displacement of these waves increased with increasing age-specific abundance. However, possibly through social interactions, migratory pattern was modified by the abundance of the other age group.     

Predictive mapping of soil organic carbon in wet cultivated lands using classification-tree based models: The case study of Denmark

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is one of the most important carbon stocks globally and has large potential to affect global climate. Distribution patterns of SOC in Denmark constitute a nation-wide baseline for studies on soil carbon changes (with respect to Kyoto protocol). This paper predicts and maps the geographic distribution of SOC across Denmark using remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GISs) and decision-tree modeling (un-pruned and pruned classification trees). Seventeen parameters, i.e. parent material, soil type, landscape type, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, mean curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, flow accumulation, specific catchment area, tangent slope, tangent curvature, steady-state wetness index, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Wetness Index (NDWI) and Soil Color Index (SCI) were generated to statistically explain SOC field measurements in the area of interest (Denmark). A large number of tree-based classification models (588) were developed using (i) all of the parameters, (ii) all Digital Elevation Model (DEM) parameters only, (iii) the primary DEM parameters only, (iv), the remote sensing (RS) indices only, (v) selected pairs of parameters, (vi) soil type, parent material and landscape type only, and (vii) the parameters having a high impact on SOC distribution in built pruned trees. The best constructed classification tree models (in the number of three) with the lowest misclassification error (ME) and the lowest number of nodes (N) as well are: (i) the tree (T1) combining all of the parameters (ME = 29.5%; N = 54); (ii) the tree (T2) based on the parent material, soil type and landscape type (ME = 31.5%; N = 14); and (iii) the tree (T3) constructed using parent material, soil type, landscape type, elevation, tangent slope and SCI (ME = 30%; N = 39). The produced SOC maps at 1:50,000 cartographic scale using these trees are highly matching with coincidence values equal to 90.5% (Map T1/Map T2), 95% (Map T1/Map T3) and 91% (Map T2/Map T3). The overall accuracies of these maps once compared with field observations were estimated to be 69.54% (Map T1), 68.87% (Map T2) and 69.41% (Map T3). The proposed tree models are relatively simple, and may be also applied to other areas.     

New tools and strategies for the inspection of the psychosocial working environment: The experience of the Danish Working Environment Authority

In 2007 the Danish Working Environment Authority launched a new strategy to strengthen and qualify primary prevention of work related stress. Part of the strategy consists of increased inspections of the psychosocial working environment as well as the development and implementation of a new inspection tool, namely the “guidance tool”.Twenty-four sector specific guidance tools have been developed to help WEA inspectors assess psychosocial working environment problems in all Danish enterprises. Based on recent research, the guidance tools consist, in each sector, of the three to five most important risk factors (for example quantitative demands, emotional demands, and work related violence), as well as the most important preventive factors, e.g. quality of management, influence/control and training.During the first years of the strategy, an increasing number of inspectors have issued improvement notices regarding work related stress and violence, and there has been an increasing number of notices issued on several risk factors. For some aspects, the tools have helped increase the clarity and comprehensibility of the improvement notices and reduce the WEA’s time consumption per enterprise.The guidance tools seem to be a suitable and efficient way of assessing several health and safety risks concerning work related stress and violence thereby allowing the WEA to detect more of the existing problems. Future challenges projected for the strategy include continuously training all WEA inspectors in the proper use of the tools and continuously refining the tools – or developing new tools – based on further research and experiences from practice.     

Comprehensive prenatal diagnostics: Exome versus genome sequencing

Objective

This study aimed to assess the diagnostic yield of prenatal genetic testing using trio whole exome sequencing (WES) and trio whole genome sequencing (WGS) in pregnancies with fetal anomalies by comparing the results with conventional chromosomal microarray (CMA) analysis.

Methods

A total of 40 pregnancies with fetal anomalies or increased nuchal translucency (NT ≥ 5 mm) were included between the 12th and 21st week of gestation. Trio WES/WGS and CMA were performed in all cases.

Results

The trio WES/WGS analysis increased the diagnostic yield by 25% in cases with negative CMA results. Furthermore, all six chromosomal aberrations identified by CMA were independently detected by WES/WGS analysis. In total, 16 out of 40 cases obtained a genetic sequence variant, copy number variant, or aneuploidy explaining the phenotype, resulting in an overall WES/WGS diagnostic yield of 40%. WES analysis provided a more reliable identification of mosaic sequence variants than WGS because of its higher sequencing depth.

Conclusions

Prenatal WES/WGS proved to be powerful diagnostic tools for fetal anomalies, surpassing the diagnostic yield of CMA. They have the potential to serve as standalone methods for prenatal diagnosis. The study highlighted the limitations of WGS in accurately detecting mosaic variants, which is particularly relevant when analyzing chorionic villus samples.     

Organizations in context: proposal for a new theoretical approach in prescriptive accident research

Lately, requests have been made to include the contexts of enterprises in models to prevent accidents at work. This paper presents different contextual theories in order to analyze whether this type of theory could be a way to elaborate our understanding of context. A differentiation is made between (a) theories of understanding relations between enterprises and regulatory agencies and (b) theories to perceive the relation between enterprise and the broader context. The last group of theories has its point of departure in an organizational understanding diverging from the classical, rational understanding of organizations and organizational processes. The conclusion is that contextual theories open for an elaborated understanding of the role of contextual relations in accident prevention, but also that an investigation of the potentials for making the theories action-orientated is needed.     

A clustering approach to integrate traffic safety in road maintenance prioritization

Objectives: We combine data on roads and crash characteristics to identify patterns in road traffic crashes with regard to road characteristics. We illustrate how combined analysis of data regarding road maintenance, maintenance costs, road characteristics, crash characteristics, and geographical location can enrich road maintenance prioritization from a traffic safety perspective.

Methods: The study is based on traffic crash data merged with road maintenance data and annual average daily traffic (AADT) collected in Denmark. We analyzed 3,964 crashes that occurred from 2010 to 2015. A latent class clustering (LCC) technique was used to identify crash clusters with different road and crash characteristics. The distribution of crash severity and estimated road maintenance costs for each cluster was found and cluster differences were compared using the chi-square test. Finally, a map matching procedure was used to identify the geographical distribution of the crashes in each cluster.

Results: Results showed that based on road maintenance levels there was no difference in the distribution of crash severity. The LCC technique revealed 11 crash clusters. Five clusters were characterized by crashes on roads with a poor maintenance level (levels 4 and 3). Only a few of these crashes included a vulnerable road user (VRU) but many occurred on roads without barriers. Four clusters included a large share of crashes on acceptably maintained roads (level 2). For these clusters only small variations in road characteristics were found, whereas the differences in crash characteristics were more dominant. The last 2 clusters included crashes that mainly occurred on new roads with no need for maintenance (level 1). Injury severity, estimated maintenance costs, and geographical location were found to be differently distributed for most of the clusters.

Conclusions: We find that focusing solely on road maintenance and crash severity does not provide clear guidance of how to prioritize between road maintenance efforts from a traffic safety perspective. However, when combined with geographical location and crash characteristics, a more nuanced picture appears that allows consideration of different target groups and perspectives.     

Concepts of Animal Health and Welfare in Organic Livestock Systems

In 2005, The International Federation of Organic Agricultural Movements (IFOAM) developed four new ethical principles of organic agriculture to guide its future development: the principles of health, ecology, care, and fairness. The key distinctive concept of animal welfare in organic agriculture combines naturalness and human care, and can be linked meaningfully with these principles. In practice, a number of challenges are connected with making organic livestock systems work. These challenges are particularly dominant in immature agro-ecological systems, for example those that are characterized by industrialization and monoculture. Some of the current challenges are partly created by shortages of land and manure, which encourage zero-grazing and other confined systems. Other challenges are created in part by the conditions for farming and the way in which global food distribution systems are organized, e.g., how live animals are transported, how feed is traded and transported all over the globe, and the development of infrastructure and large herds. We find that the overall organic principles should be included when formulating guidelines for practical organic animal farming. This article explores how the special organic conceptions of animal welfare are related to the overall principles of organic agriculture. The aim is to identify potential routes for future development of organic livestock systems in different contexts and with reference to the specific understanding of animal welfare in organic agriculture. We include two contrasting cases represented by organic livestock systems in northwestern Europe and farming systems in tropical low-income countries; we use these cases to explore the widely different challenges of organic livestock systems in different parts of the world.