Land cover changes as impacted by spatio-temporal rainfall variability along the Ethiopian Rift Valley escarpment

Magnitudes of land cover changes nowadays can be assessed properly, but their driving forces are subject to many discussions. Next to the accepted role of human influence, the impact of natural climate variability is often neglected. In this paper, the impact of rainfall variability on land cover changes (LCC) is investigated for the western escarpment of the Raya Graben along the northern Ethiopian Rift Valley. First, LCC between 2000 and 2014 were analysed at specific time steps using Landsat imagery. Based on the obtained LCC maps, the link was set with rainfall variability, obtained by means of the satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFEs) from NOAA-CPC. After a correction by the incorporation of local meteorological station data, these estimates prove to be good estimators for the actual amount of precipitation (ρ _RFE1.0 = 0.85, p = 0.00, n = 126; ρ _RFE2.0 = 0.76, p = 0.00, n = 934). By performing several linear regression analyses, a significant positive relationship between the precipitation parameter DIFF 5Y (i.e. the at-RFE pixel scale difference in five-year average annual precipitation for the two periods preceding the land cover maps) and the changes in the woody vegetation cover was found (standardised regression coefficient β = 0.23, p = 0.02, n = 108). Despite the dominance of direct human impact, further greening of the study area can be expected for the future concomitantly to a wetter climate, if all other factors remain constant.     

Characterizing the Relative Contributions of Large Vessels to Total Ocean Noise Fields: A Case Study Using the Gerry E. Studds Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary

In 2006, we used the U.S. Coast Guard’s Automatic Identification System (AIS) to describe patterns of large commercial ship traffic within a U.S. National Marine Sanctuary located off the coast of Massachusetts. We found that 541 large commercial vessels transited the greater sanctuary 3413 times during the year. Cargo ships, tankers, and tug/tows constituted 78% of the vessels and 82% of the total transits. Cargo ships, tankers, and cruise ships predominantly used the designated Boston Traffic Separation Scheme, while tug/tow traffic was concentrated in the western and northern portions of the sanctuary. We combined AIS data with low-frequency acoustic data from an array of nine autonomous recording units analyzed for 2 months in 2006. Analysis of received sound levels (10–1000 Hz, root-mean-square pressure re 1 μPa ± SE) averaged 119.5 ± 0.3 dB at high-traffic locations. High-traffic locations experienced double the acoustic power of less trafficked locations for the majority of the time period analyzed. Average source level estimates (71–141 Hz, root-mean-square pressure re 1 μPa ± SE) for individual vessels ranged from 158 ± 2 dB (research vessel) to 186 ± 2 dB (oil tanker). Tankers were estimated to contribute 2 times more acoustic power to the region than cargo ships, and more than 100 times more than research vessels. Our results indicate that noise produced by large commercial vessels was at levels and within frequencies that warrant concern among managers regarding the ability of endangered whales to maintain acoustic contact within greater sanctuary waters. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Using Public–Private Interplay to Climate-Proof Urban Planning? Critical Lessons from Developing a new Housing District in Karlstad,Sweden

While strengthening public–private interplay is expected to improve the climate profile of urban planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation, less is known about the practice of such new interactive modes of governing. The paper critically examines the role, benefits and limitations of extended public–private interplay in developing a new housing district in Sweden. The developer dialogue between municipal officials and property developers confirms mutual interests, shared understandings and the added value of interacting. However, the closer the dialogue comes to settling agreements, the more difficult it gets for municipal officials to steer the process and its outcomes in favor of climate proofing. Complications with adapting to the new interactive setting means that municipal officials balance between acting as facilitators and/or regulators and property developers between acting as partners, competitors and/or defenders. Refining steering-strategies for sustaining commitments and securing formal agreements are pertinent for using public–private interplay to climate-proof urban planning.     

Persistence and changes in the peripheral Beles basin of Ethiopia

We have investigated the relevance of the notion of “peripheralism” in the Beles basin. In this lowland border area of Ethiopia, important investments require an evaluation of their socio-economic and ecological impacts in the light of Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy. We contrasted literature of different periods with field observations. In the middle and lower parts of the basin, the Gumuz people traditionally practised shifting cultivation. Resettlement of highlanders is particularly linked to water and land resources. A large irrigation project was initiated in the 1980s, but vegetables and fruits face post-harvest losses. Large water transfers from Lake Tana since 2010 affect the movement of people, the hydrogeomorphology, and ecology of the river. In several parts of the basin, the settlers’ economy now dominates. Many Gumuz became sedentary but maintained their agricultural system, particularly in the south of the lower basin. Land titling allowed allocation of “vacant” areas to transnational or domestic investors. As a result, the semi-natural vegetation is frequently replaced by open cropland, leading to decreased carbon storage and increased soil erosion. This and water abstraction for irrigation jeopardise hydropower production, in contradiction with the CRGE objectives. Despite the recent developments, the contrasts in economic activity make the core-periphery dichotomy to remain actual in the Beles basin. The resettlements and permanent cropping tend to make the upper basin part of the core. However, the installation of a transit road and commercial farms in the lower basin do not allow to consider that a non-peripheral integration has taken place.     

The impact of commodity price risk management on the profits of a company

It is well recognized that for the producing companies hedging the commodity price using financial products like forwards or futures has become an important part of the company's production process. But apart from the direct impacts of hedging on the production and hedging costs the use of financial products affects the financing of the company: hedging the volatile commodity prices leads to a reduction of the risk premium the company has to pay for its debt capital, since hedging contributes to more confidence of the investors in the redemption of the debt. In this paper we therefore analyze this dependency of hedging and financing and derive optimal hedging extents for companies in different market situations based on a long-term model. By hedging the commodity price, companies can realize a surplus in profits. Thereby, the optimal hedging extent for a monopolist is often up to 100%, whereas for companies in a polypolistic market the optimum is always less than 100%. These results are illustrated by examples for a producing company.     

“There is nothing political in it”: triggers of local political leaders' engagement in climate adaptation

Local government is attributed a vital role in climate-change adaptation. Previous studies contend that conflicting priorities, insufficient institutional incentives and knowledge of risks, and inadequate resources all impede local climate adaptation. Though the importance of local political support in enabling climate adaptation is widely acknowledged, the views of local politicians have rarely been analysed. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with local politicians in Sweden, we explore what affects their engagement in climate adaptation. The study claims that climate adaptation contrary to mitigation is not viewed as political beyond directing attention and sanctioning guidelines set by officials. A limited number of interviewees claim a more strategic political role in adaptation. The combined effect of institutional incentives (e.g. fragmented national guidelines, unappealing goals, and lack of funding), relative weight in local politics, and ability to exercise political leadership (e.g. campaign value, public and media pressure, and lack of ideology) is perceived as too insignificant to trigger strong political engagement. In less-populous municipalities, adaptive measures were highly valued for demonstrating political action.     

Distribution,fate and persistence of organochlorine compounds formed during production of bleached pulp

The processes governing distribution of a xenobiotic compound discharged initially into the environment are discussed, and attention is drawn to (a) binding to organic matter in the sediment phase which affects both persistence and toxicity to biota and (b) the role of atmospheric transport for compounds of low water solubility and high vapour pressure. Important limitations in the use of sum parameters such as EOCI are pointed out. The important distinction between biodegradation and biotransformation is pointed out, and significant experimental determinants noted. Pathways for the aerobic metabolism of chlorophenolic compounds are discussed, and attention is drawn to the role of O‐methylation as an environmentally significant alternative to biodegradation. Evidence for the biodegradation of chlorinated aliphatic acids and hydrocarbons under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions is presented. Anaerobic metabolism of chlorophenolic compounds is discussed with respect to (a) de‐O‐methylation of chloroguaiacols, (b) dechlorination of chlorocatechols and (c) reduction of chlorovanillins. It is emphasized that current evidence provides a complex metabolic picture, and that only partial dechlorination may occur. Brief attention is given to the important issue of the persistence of chlorolignin, and attention drawn to technical issues which render this problem difficult of access by traditional procedures. Biohalogenation—particularly by fungi—is noted, though its quantitative contribution cannot be estimated at the moment. A number of important unresolved issues are underscored: (a) the problem of determining rates of microbial reactions which may be translated to environmental situations, (b) the cardinal role not only of the number of chlorine atoms in an aromatic compound but also the substitution pattern and (c) limitations in current understanding of the role of anaerobic bacteria in bringing about biodegradation and biotransformation.     

Reduced European emissions of S and N--effects on air concentrations, deposition and soil water chemistry in Swedish forests

Changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution in Swedish forests have been assessed in relation to European emission reductions, based on measurements in the Swedish Throughfall Monitoring Network. Measurements were analysed over 20 years with a focus on the 12-year period 1996 to 2008. Air concentrations of SO₂ and NO₂, have decreased. The SO₄-deposition has decreased in parallel with the European emission reductions. Soil water SO₄-concentrations have decreased at most sites but the pH, ANC and inorganic Al-concentrations indicated acidification recovery only at some of the sites. No changes in the bulk deposition of inorganic nitrogen could be demonstrated. Elevated NO₃-concentrations in the soil water occurred at irregular occasions at some southern sites. Despite considerable air pollution emission reductions in Europe, acidification recovery in Swedish forests soils is slow. Nitrogen deposition to Swedish forests continues at elevated levels that may lead to leaching of nitrate to surface waters.     

Effects of preference heterogeneity among landowners on spatial conservation prioritization

The participation of private landowners in conservation is crucial to efficient biodiversity conservation. This is especially the case in settings where the share of private ownership is large and the economic costs associated with land acquisition are high. We used probit regression analysis and historical participation data to examine the likelihood of participation of Danish forest owners in a voluntary conservation program. We used the results to spatially predict the likelihood of participation of all forest owners in Denmark. We merged spatial data on the presence of forest, cadastral information on participation contracts, and individual‐level socioeconomic information about the forest owners and their households. We included predicted participation in a probability model for species survival. Uninformed and informed (included land owner characteristics) models were then incorporated into a spatial prioritization for conservation of unmanaged forests. The choice models are based on sociodemographic data on the entire population of Danish forest owners and historical data on their participation in conservation schemes. Inclusion in the model of information on private landowners’ willingness to supply land for conservation yielded at intermediate budget levels up to 30% more expected species coverage than the uninformed prioritization scheme. Our landowner‐choice model provides an example of moving toward more implementable conservation planning.