Estimating damages from climate-related natural disasters for the Caribbean at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming above preindustrial levels

This paper examines historical and future changes in normalised damages resulting from climate-related natural disasters for the Caribbean. Annualised damages of USD824 million are shown to be non-stationary over the historical period 1964 to 2013. Perturbations of (i) sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and (ii) the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) appear to be associated with historical damages. Both the TNA and AMO are known modulators of hurricane activity and rainfall amounts in the Caribbean. Indicative future damages are determined using (i) cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of perturbed climate states and (ii) an artificial neural network (ANN) model of damages using projected TNA values and the state of the AMO derived from an ensemble of five coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) run under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Estimates of future damages are determined when global mean surface temperatures (GMST) reach and exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. Annual normalised damages may potentially increase to at least USD1395 million or close to double for 1.5 °C. At 2 °C, higher damages may occur; however, large uncertainty across all GCMs prohibits the identification of significant difference between 1.5 and 2 °C. Significant differences in damages do, however, exist for at least two of the GCMs for the two climate states. The robustness of the results is discussed in light of a number of issues, including limitations associated with the data.     

Defining disaster resilience: comparisons from key stakeholders involved in emergency management in Victoria,Australia

Three years after the introduction of the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience there remains no unanimously adopted definition of disaster resilience within Australia's emergency management sector. The aim of this study is to determine what the concept means to key stakeholders in the emergency management sector in the Australian State of Victoria, and how these conceptualisations overlap and diverge. Via an online survey, 113 people were asked how they define disaster resilience in their work in the emergency management sector. A data mining software tool, Leximancer, was employed to uncover the relationships between the definitions provided. The findings show that stakeholders see resilience as an ‘ability’ that encompasses emergency management activities and personal responsibility. However, the findings also highlight some possible points of conflict between stakeholders. In addition, the paper outlines and discusses a number of potential consequences for the implementation and the success of the resilience‐based approach in Australia.     

Field demonstration of visible opacity photographic systems

The Digital Opacity Compliance System (DOCS) is an innovative method that uses digital imaging technology to quantify visible opacity of stationary sources. DOCS, which has been demonstrated at pilot and full scale as a technically defensible and economically attractive alternative to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Reference Method 9 (Method 9), uses commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) digital cameras in combination with a user-friendly computer software package to determine opacity. To date, all DOCS field testing has been conducted using two models of digital cameras, notably, Kodak Models DC265 and DC290, both of which are no longer commercially available. To ensure that field-validated digital cameras will be available to future DOCS users, a suite of new digital cameras was evaluated with the opacity determination software including the following: (1) Sony Model Cybershot Model DSC-WI, (2) Nikon Model Coolpix 5200, (3) Fuji Finepix Model E500, and (4) Kodak Model DX6490. Within the opacity range of regulatory interest, that is, 0-40%, the Sony Cybershot Model DSC-WI and Nikon Coolpix Model 5200 digital cameras were found to generate plume photographs of which the DOCS opacity analysis yielded results that were statistically equivalent to the previously field-validated Kodak Model DC290. In contrast, the Fuji Finepix Model E500 generated plume photographs of which the DOCS opacity analysis were, on average, 2.2% less than those generated by the Kodak Model DC290 photographs, a difference that was determined to be statistically significant. Over the same opacity range, photographs taken by the Kodak Model DX6490 yielded DOCS opacity readings that were found to be statistically equivalent to a Method 9-certified transmissometer. Based on the results from the current digital camera validation testing approach, EPA has developed a new camera-based visible opacity measurement method titled "Determination of Visible Emission Opacity from Stationary Sources Using Computer-Based Photographic Analysis Systems." The proposed method is expected to be promulgated after closure of the public comment period.     

Evaluation of the potential of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy for detection of trace element in liquid

The analytical figure of merit of the potential of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) has been evaluated for detection of trace element in liquid. LIBS data of Mg, Cr, Mn, and Re were studied. Various optical geometries, which produce the laser spark in and at the liquid sample, were tested. The calibration curves for Mg, Cr, Mn, and Re were obtained at the optimized experimental conditions with bulk liquid and in liquid jet. It was found that measurements using a liquid jet provide better detection limits than bulk liquid measurements. The limits of detection (LOD) of Mg, Cr, Mn, and Re in the present liquid jet measurement are found to be 0.1, 0.4, 0.7, and 8 ppm, respectively. The LOD of Mg using Mg 279.55 nm was compared with the values found in other liquid work.     

Critically evaluating best management practices for preventing freshwater turtle extinctions

Ex situ conservation tools, such as captive breeding for reintroduction, are considered a last resort to recover threatened or endangered species, but they may also help reduce anthropogenic threats where it is difficult or impossible to address them directly. Headstarting, or captive rearing of eggs or neonate animals for subsequent release into the wild, is controversial because it treats only a symptom of a larger conservation problem; however, it may provide a mechanism to address multiple threats, particularly near population centers. We conducted a population viability analysis of Australia's most widespread freshwater turtle, Chelodina longicollis, to determine the effect of adult roadkill (death by collision with motor vehicles), which is increasing, and reduced recruitment through nest predation from introduced European red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). We also modeled management scenarios to test the effectiveness of headstarting, fox management, and measures to reduce mortality on roads. Only scenarios with headstarting from source populations eliminated all risks of extinction and allowed population growth. Small increases in adult mortality (2%) had the greatest effect on population growth and extinction risk. Where threats simultaneously affected other life‐history stages (e.g., recruitment), eliminating harvest pressures on adult females alone did not eliminate the risk of population extinction. In our models, one source population could supply enough hatchlings annually to supplement 25 other similar‐sized populations such that extinction was avoided. Based on our results, we believe headstarting should be a primary tool for managing freshwater turtles for which threats affect multiple life‐history stages. We advocate the creation of source populations for managing freshwater turtles that are greatly threatened at multiple life‐history stages, such as depredation of eggs by invasive species and adult mortality via roadkill.     

Importance of dispersal routes that minimize open‐ocean movement to the genetic structure of island populations

Islands present a unique scenario in conservation biology, offering refuge yet imposing limitations on insular populations. The Kimberley region of northwestern Australia has more than 2500 islands that have recently come into focus as substantial conservation resources. It is therefore of great interest for managers to understand the driving forces of genetic structure of species within these island archipelagos. We used the ubiquitous bar‐shouldered skink (Ctenotus inornatus) as a model species to represent the influence of landscape factors on genetic structure across the Kimberley islands. On 41 islands and 4 mainland locations in a remote area of Australia, we genotyped individuals across 18 nuclear (microsatellite) markers. Measures of genetic differentiation and diversity were used in two complementary analyses. We used circuit theory and Mantel tests to examine the influence of the landscape matrix on population connectivity and linear regression and model selection based on Akaike's information criterion to investigate landscape controls on genetic diversity. Genetic differentiation between islands was best predicted with circuit‐theory models that accounted for the large difference in resistance to dispersal between land and ocean. In contrast, straight‐line distances were unrelated to either resistance distances or genetic differentiation. Instead, connectivity was determined by island‐hopping routes that allow organisms to minimize the distance of difficult ocean passages. Island populations of C. inornatus retained varying degrees of genetic diversity (N_A = 1.83 – 7.39), but it was greatest on islands closer to the mainland, in terms of resistance‐distance units. In contrast, genetic diversity was unrelated to island size. Our results highlight the potential for islands to contribute to both theoretical and applied conservation, provide strong evidence of the driving forces of population structure within undisturbed landscapes, and identify the islands most valuable for conservation based on their contributions to gene flow and genetic diversity.