Multi-stand Forest Management under a Climatic Risk: Do Time and Risk Preferences Matter?

We propose a stochastic dynamic programming framework to model the management of a multi-stand forest under climate risk (strong wind occurrence). The preferences of the forest-owner are specified by a non-expected utility in order to separately analyze intertemporal substitution and risk aversion effects. A numerical method is developed to characterize the optimal forest management policies and the optimal consumption-saving strategy. The stochastic dynamic programming framework is applied to a non-industrial private forest-owner located in North-East of France. We show that the optimal decisions both depend upon risk and time preferences. The authors would like to thank participants at the international conference on Economics of Sustainable Forest Management in Toronto, at the PARIS 1 seminar on Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, at the 2004 Applied Microeconomics Conference in Lille and at the 13th annual conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists at Budapest.     

The need for ecological monitoring of freshwaters in a changing world: a case study of Lakes Annecy,Bourget, and Geneva

Lakes Annecy, Bourget, and Geneva are large, deep carbonated peri-alpine lakes in eastern France. They are located in the same ecoregion but have been subject to differing degrees of anthropogenic pressure over the past decades. A comparative analysis of these ecosystems can therefore provide valuable information on how the lakes have responded to changes in phosphorus runoff, fish management practices, and global warming. Each of these lakes has undergone a restoration process, and changes in water quality and trophic state, as measured using parameters like transparency, chlorophyll a, nutrient concentrations, and phytoplankton biomass and structure, can be used to evaluate efforts made to preserve these ecosystems. Our results reveal that (1) peri-alpine lakes are exemplary cases of restoration in the world where freshwater eutrophication is on the increase, and (2) efforts must be maintained because of the new context of climate change, the effects of which on the quality and the ecological functioning of lakes are still poorly understood.     

Urban mining: hibernating copper stocks in local power grids

Large technical systems serving the everyday needs of people, such as water supply systems, power grids or communication networks, are rich in accumulated metals. Over time, parts of these systems have been taken out of use without the system infrastructure being removed from its original location. Such metal stocks in hibernation thus constitute potential resource reservoirs accessible for recovery. In this paper, obsolete stocks of copper situated in the local power grids of two Swedish cities are quantified. Emphasis is also on economic conditions for extracting such “hibernating” cables. The results show that on a per customer basis, the two power grids contain similar amounts of copper, i.e. 0.04–0.05 tonnes per subscriber. However, the share of the copper stock that is in hibernation differs between the grids. In the larger grid of Gothenburg, almost 20% of the copper accumulated in the grid is no longer in use, while the obsolete share does not exceed 5% in the city of Linköping. For managers of local power grids, recovery of hibernating cables could be beneficial if integrated with other maintenance work on the grid. At the present price of copper, however, separate recovery of obsolete cables is not economically justified.     

Nutritionally relevant elements in staple foods: influence of arable site versus choice of variety

Eighteen representative sites for the Austrian grain-growing and eight for the potato-growing zones (soils and crops) were investigated. On each site, total element contents (B, Ba, Ca, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, P, Sr and Zn) were determined in 4–12 varieties of winter wheat (n = 136), 6 varieties of spring durum wheat (n = 30), 5 varieties of winter durum wheat (n = 15), 7 varieties of rye (n = 49), 5 varieties of spring barley (n = 30) and 5 varieties of potatoes (n = 40). Element accumulations in grain species and potato tubers varied significantly with site conditions, with the main exceptions for B in potatoes and wheat as well as for Zn, Cu and Co in durum wheat. On average, across all investigated sites, differences in varieties occurred concerning the elements Ca, Cd, Ba, Sr and Zn (except Zn in potatoes and winter durum). A rough estimation revealed that an average Austrian consumer of wheat, rye and potatoes meets more than 50% of the needs of daily element intake for K, P and Mg, between 36 and 72% for Fe, Zn and Cu, and more than 100% for Co, Mo and Mn. In particular, the elements Ca and Na have to be added from other sources.     

Lexicographic preference in biodiversity valuation: Tests of inconsistencies and willingness to pay

Previous contingent valuation (CV) studies on biodiversity have indicated that as much as one-quarter of the respondents show lexicographic preferences when facing biodiversity-money trade-offs. This behaviour is incompatible with welfare theory underlying CV, and thus questions the validity and reliability of the outcome of CV of changes in biodiversity. However, it is difficult from CV responses to distinguish between strict and modified lexicographic preferences, and those attaching a high value to biodiversity. This paper adds to the empirical evidence showing that what at first hand seems to represent strict lexicographic preferences is at most representing modified lexicographic preferences, and probably rather represent just high valuation of biodiversity. Data on both hypothetical and actual willingness to pay (WTP) from a CV study on biodiversity were used to perform tests of inconsistent attitudes to estimate the maximum share of non-compensatory preferences for biodiversity. The results show that there are very few respondents in the group that consistently state high preference for biodiversity preservation and show clear reluctance to trade-off biodiversity with other goods. However, this group also had higher WTP, both hypothetical and actual, than the reference group. This is consistent with exchange preferences and steep indifference curves. Thus, people with lexicographic preferences for biodiversity are probably less numerous than previously indicated.     

Scope insensitivity in contingent valuation of complex environmental amenities

It has been argued that respondents in contingent valuation (CV) surveys, asked to value complex environmental amenities, will state willingness to pay (WTP) independently of the scope of the project. Such insensitivity to scope would be at odds with rational choice, and could therefore imply that CV is not a theoretically valid method for biodiversity valuation. The scope test in the present CV study was applied to endangered species preservation. Respondents were split in four sub-samples facing different scopes of endangered species preservation. The design allowed for both external and internal scope tests. Furthermore, the tests were split according to elicitation format. Of four external tests of insensitivity to scope, one was rejected, two gave mixed results, depending on either the type of test or elicitation format, and for the last one the null hypothesis could not be rejected. Of five internal tests, insensitivity to scope was rejected in three cases, one test gave mixed results, and one could not be rejected. Survey design features of the CV study, especially an unfamiliar sub-group of endangered species, could explain the apparent insensitivity to scope observed.     

Trace Element Patterns and Seasonal Variability of Dust Precipitation in a Low Polluted City – The Example of Karlsruhe/Germany

Urban areas of different land uses can be distinguished by their specific patterns of atmospheric dust and trace element precipitation. Dusts emitted from industrial areas with fossil fuel processing, for instance, are enriched in V, Ni and Co. Cluster analysis groups sampling sites based on their specific element patterns. The resulting groups correspond to the surrounding land use: Urban sampling sites were identified showing similar patterns of dust and trace element precipitation as a reference site; dusts of other urban sites were influenced by diffuse pollution (caused by non-point and dispersed pollution sources), or by specific industrial emissions. Cluster analysis was also used to characterize the chemical dust composition. Three clusters of typical element associations were distinguished. These clusters represent the dust matrix, diffuse urban pollution and pollution due to fossil fuel processing. Dust precipitation and chemical dust composition show seasonal variations. Dust precipitation and concentrations of trace elements in the precipitated dust are negatively correlated during the annual courses. The highest concentrations of trace elements occur during winter, whereas the highest precipitations of dust were found during summer. This finding stresses that both, precipitation and concentration have to be addressed for the environmental assessment of urban dusts.     

A new generic sub-model for radionuclide fixation in large catchments from continuous and single-pulse fallouts, as used in a river model

This paper presents a new general sub-model for fixation in catchment areas to be used within the framework of a river model for substances such as radionuclides and metals from continuous and single-pulse fallouts. The model has been critically tested using data from 27 European river sites covering a very wide geographical area and contaminated by radiocesium and radiostrontium from the Chernobyl accident and from the nuclear weapons tests (NWT fallout). This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases) at defined sites on a monthly basis. The overall river model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow (approximately dry land) areas and outflow (approximately wetland) areas. The model has a general structure, which can be used for all radionuclides or substances. It is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation and fallout. Note that for large catchments, this model does not require data on the characteristic soil type or the percentage of outflow areas (wet lands) in the catchment, as in most previous models, since in practice it is very difficult to obtain reliable data on characteristic soil type or percentage of outflow areas, especially in large and topographically complex catchments. Modelled values have been compared to empirical data from rivers sites covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 3000 to 3,000,000 km2, precipitation from 400 to 1700 mm/year; fallouts from 1600 to 280,000 Bq/m2; altitudes from 0 to 1000 m.a.s.l. and latitudes from 41 degrees to 72 degrees N). The river model with its sub-model for fixation predicts close to the uncertainty factors given by the empirical data, which have been shown to be about a factor of 1.6 for 137Cs and a factor of 2.2 for 90Sr in river water. The obtained characteristic uncertainty factors for 137Cs from the Chernobyl fallout is 2.4, for 137Cs from the NWT fallout it is 1.3 and for the 90Sr results from the NWT fallout it is 3 using the new model.     

Automatic sorting of ichthyoplankton; Factors controlling plankton density in gradients of silica

Following isopycnic sedimentation in density gradients of colloidal silica (Ludox AM), zooplankton segregated into 3 broad bands of increasing density which included, respectively, fish eggs, invertebrates, and fish larvae. The zone of fish eggs was contaminated with Sagitta spp. and the zone of fish larvae was overlapped partially by mysids and euphausids. We have sought to minimize contamination through modifications of the silica gradients which might shift banding densities of the ichthyoplankton or of the contaminating invertebrates. Density shifts in fact occurred in different commercial formulations of silica sols and in gradients modified by small amounts of polymers, osmotica or charged small molecules. Sagitta were specifically shifted out of the zone of fish eggs by the addition, of 1% w/v dextran sulfate or in a silica sol composed of very small particles of silica (Nalcoag 1115). Fish larvae were shifted to higher densities by the addition of 1% w/v trimetaphosphate or 1% w/v dextran sulfate. Additions of 1% w/v polyvinyl alcohol, and of 10 mM glycine, and potassium phosphate had intermediate effects. The same banding densities of plankton in silica gradients were reached in less than 10 h at one gravity, independent of the immediate pretreatment of the sample.