Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

The influence of odour on the oviposition behaviour of the cabbage root fly

Summary. Host plant odours are known to be important in long-range host location by the cabbage root fly, whereas at short distances orientation is mainly visual. We show that olfaction also plays a significant role after a fly lands on a plant and before it moves down onto the soil to oviposit. Host plant acceptance by the cabbage root fly seems to result from a synergistic response to simultaneously perceived olfactory and contact chemostimulation. Received 12 May 1999; accepted 24 July 1999     

Ozone predictions in Atlanta, Georgia: analysis of the 1999 ozone season

Ozone prediction has become an important activity in many U.S. ozone nonattainment areas. In this study, we describe the ozone prediction program in the Atlanta metropolitan area and analyze the performance of this program during the 1999 ozone-forecasting season. From May to September, a team of 10 air quality regulators, meteorologists, and atmospheric scientists made a daily prediction of the next-day maximum 8-hr average ozone concentration. The daily forecast was made aided by two linear regression models, a 3-dimensional air quality model, and the no-skill ozone persistence model. The team's performance is compared with the numerical models using several numerical indicators. Our analysis indicated that (1) the team correctly predicted next-day peak ozone concentrations 84% of the time, (2) the two linear regression models had a better performance than a 3-dimensional air quality model, (3) persistence was a strong predictor of ozone concentrations with a performance of 78%, and (4) about half of the team's wrong predictions could be prevented with improved meteorological predictions.     

Assessment of the maximum possible liquid superheat during flashing leak flow

During the discharge of flashing liquids through leaks due to abrupt depressurization a transient thermodynamic non-equilibrium in the form of a boiling delay in the superheated liquid flow can occur. As a consequence the actual mass flow quality is smaller than calculated under the assumption of an immediate adjustment of the thermodynamic equilibrium between the phases. For the prediction of the leak mass flow for a given pressure difference the magnitude of this self-adjusting mass flow quality is needed.

Most of the models cited in the literature include only the equilibrium mass quality as limiting quantity and ignore further effects as that of the depressurization velocity or the mean nucleus distance. For the assessment of the maximum possible liquid superheat during flashing only the conduction heat transfer from a stagnant liquid to the bubble surface is used to describe the bubble growth.

The sub-model for the bubble growth due to expansion and mass transfer necessary for the global prediction of the transient thermodynamic non-equilibrium in flashing liquids was validated using bubble radii measured by Hooper et al. [Bubble growth and pressure relationship in the flashing of superheated water. Technical publication 6904, Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Toronto, 1969] for the case of a sudden depressurization of initially saturated water. On this basis the calculated time-dependent temperature field, the actual mass quality, the mean liquid temperature and, in comparison to the corresponding values based on the assumption of immediate thermodynamic equilibrium, the maximum possible liquid superheat are predicted.     

Potential allelopathic effect of Pinus halepensis in the secondary succession: an experimental approach

Summary. Recent economic and social changes in north Mediterranean regions have led to an important rural depopulation. Consequently, meadows developed on abandoned agricultural lands (characterized by high species richness) undergo reforestation. These former fields are mainly colonized by Pinus halepensis Miller, which is known to synthetize a wide range of secondary metabolites, among these, some could influence plant succession through allelopathy. The allelopathic potential of P. halepensis, was tested against two target species (Lactuca sativa L. and Linum strictum L.) with aqueous extracts obtained from different organs (root and needle) taking into account the individual age (±10, ±30 and > 60 years old). Root and needle extracts affected differently germination and growth of the two target species, the responses varying with concentration of extracts, age and organs tested. The strongest inhibitory effect was observed on the germination and growth of L. strictum, exposed to needle extracts of young P. halepensis (±10 years old), and root extracts of older P. halepensis (> 30 years old). These extracts contained several phenolic acids (e.g. 4-hydroxybenzoic acid and p-coumaric acid), which are known as allelochemicals and their concentrations vary with age and organ tested. Hence, P. halepensis could influence secondary succession through the release of potential allelochemicals in the environment by leaf leachates or root exudates.     

Toward Cyborg PPGIS: exploring socio-technical requirements for the use of web-based PPGIS in two municipal planning cases,Stockholm region,Sweden

Web-based Public Participation Geographic Information Systems (PPGIS) are increasingly used for surveying place values and informing municipal planning in contexts of urban densification. However, research is lagging behind the rapid deployment of PPGIS applications. Some of the main opportunities and challenges for the uptake and implementation of web-based PPGIS are derived from a literature review and two case studies dealing with municipal planning for urban densification in the Stockholm region, Sweden. A simple clustering analysis identified three interconnected themes that together determine the performance of PPGIS: (i) tool design and affordances; (ii) organisational capacity; and (iii) governance. The results of the case studies augment existing literature regarding the connections between the different socio-technical dimensions for the design, implementation and evaluation of PPGIS applications in municipal planning. A cyborg approach to PPGIS is then proposed to improve the theoretical basis for addressing these dimensions together.     

Ions species size distribution in particulate matter associated with VOCs and meteorological conditions over an urban region

Airborne particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5, PM1) and volatile organic compounds (benzene, toluene, m,p-xylene, o-xylene) samples were collected during winter and summer seasons of 2005 at two sites, representing an urban and a suburban region of the Greater Athens Area. Urban site traffic emissions were the major contributor to the concentration of PM2.5, PM10, toluene, and xylenes, while benzene and PM1 concentrations were presented in significant spatial variations. K+, Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, NO3-, Cl- and SO42- ions were analyzed for the chemical characterization of the collected PM samples. The results showed that Na+ cations and SO42- anions were the dominant species, during winter and summer, respectively, in both sites. The analysis of the synoptic scale and mesoscale atmospheric circulation during the experimental periods demonstrated that the meteorological conditions play a key role, not only in the variation but also in the distribution of the ionic concentrations at the three fractions of particulates and the dominant character (alkaline/acidic/neutral) of the particulates at the two sampling sites.     

Duplex PCR for preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) of spinal muscular atrophy

The main difficulty in developing a molecular diagnosis of spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) resides in the specific genomic structure of the locus. Indeed, two highly homologous survival motor neurone genes, SMN1 and SMN2, are present at the locus. The detection of the homozygous deletion of exons 7 and 8 of the SMN1 gene, which is present in 90 to 98% of the patients, is based on methods highlighting 1 of the 8 nucleotidic mismatches existing between these 2 genes. In order to offer preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) for SMA, we developed a new allele-specific amplification method. The main disadvantage of our previously described strategy resided in the possibility of diagnosing, in case of amplification failure, an unaffected embryo as affected. We present here a new PGD-SMA method. We established the conditions for three different duplex PCRs, allowing the specific detection of the SMN1 gene and one polymorphic marker, either D5S629, D5S1977, or D5S641. Of the 60 to 90 single cells tested, the PCR efficiency varied from 98 to 100% with a complete genotype obtained in a range between 81 and 87% with a global allele drop-out rate of 9%. Such a test was used to perform 1 PGD cycle for which 7 embryos could be analysed. All the embryos were fully diagnosed, six as unaffected and one as affected. Four embryos were transferred, but no pregnancy ensued. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.