Permanent sample plots for natural tropical forests: A rationale with special emphasis on Central Africa

Permanent sample plots (PSP), where trees are individually and permanently marked, have received increased interest in Central Africa as a tool to monitor vegetation changes. Although techniques for mounting PSP in tropical forests are well known, their planning still deserves attention. This study aims at defining a rationale for determining the size and number of replicates for setting up PSP in mixed tropical forests. It considers PSP as a sampling plan to estimate a target quantity with its associated margin of error. The target quantity considered here is the stock recovery rate, which is a key parameter for forest management in Central Africa. It is computed separately for each commercial species. The number of trees to monitor for each species defines the margin of error on the stock recovery rate. The size and number of replicated plots is obtained as the solution of an optimization problem that consists in minimizing the margin of error for every species while ensuring that the mounting cost remains below a given threshold. This rationale was applied using the data from the M’Baïki experimental site in the Central African Republic. It showed that the stock recovery rate is a highly variable quantity, and that the typical cost that forest managers are prone to devote to PSP leads to high margins of error. It also showed that the size and number of replicated plots is related to the spatial pattern of trees: clustered or spatially heterogeneous patterns favor many small plots, whereas regular or spatially homogeneous patterns favor few large plots.     

Discordant non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) – a systematic review

With a high sensitivity and specificity, non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) is an incomparable screening test for fetal aneuploidy. However, the method is rather newly introduced, and experiences with discordant results are few. We did a systematic review of literature reporting details of false positive and false negative NIPT results. Discordant sex chromosome results were not included. We identified 22 studies reporting case details. In total, 206 discordant cases were included, of which 88% were false positive and 12% false negative. Details on maternal age, gestational age, platform/company, Z-score, fetal fraction, results and explanation were specified. The main reasons for discordant results were confined placental mosaicism, maternal copy number variation, vanished twin, maternal cancer and true fetal mosaicism. A very high percentage of cases (67%) were reported with no obvious biological or technical explanation for the discordant result. The included cases represent only a minor part of the true number of false positive or false negative NIPT cases identified in fetal medicine clinics around the world. To ensure knowledge exchange and transparency of NIPT between laboratories, we suggest a systematic recording of discordant NIPT results, as well as a quality assurance by external quality control and accreditation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On uncertainty and sensitivity of LCA-based priority setting

Life-cycle assessments are normally made without quantitative estimations of their uncertainty. More interest has been focused on sensitivity analysis. In ISO 14040, LCA standard and SETAC's ‘code of practice’ sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are recommended or even requested. In the EPS system, an analysis of significance and sensitivity has been carried out for several years. The article describes this procedure in ISO terms and generalises it for other types of life-cycle assessments.     

Estimating freshwater turtle mortality rates and population declines following hook ingestion

Freshwater turtle populations are susceptible to declines following small increases in the mortality of adults, making it essential to identify and understand potential threats. Freshwater turtles ingest fish hooks associated with recreational angling, and this is likely a problem because hook ingestion is a source of additive mortality for sea turtles. We used a Bayesian‐modeling framework, observed rates of hook ingestion by freshwater turtles, and mortality of sea turtles from hook ingestion to examine the probability that a freshwater turtle in a given population ingests a hook and subsequently dies from it. We used the results of these analyses and previously published life‐history data to simulate the effects of hook ingestion on population growth for 3 species of freshwater turtle. In our simulation, the probability that an individual turtle ingests a hook and dies as a result was 1.2–11%. Our simulation results suggest that this rate of mortality from hook ingestion is sufficient to cause population declines. We believe we have identified fish‐hook ingestion as a serious yet generally overlooked threat to the viability of freshwater turtle populations.     

Landscape-level influences of terrestrial snake occupancy within the southeastern United States

Habitat loss and degradation are thought to be the primary drivers of species extirpations, but for many species we have little information regarding specific habitats that influence occupancy. Snakes are of conservation concern throughout North America, but effective management and conservation are hindered by a lack of basic natural history information and the small number of large-scale studies designed to assess general population trends. To address this information gap, we compiled detection/nondetection data for 13 large terrestrial species from 449 traps located across the southeastern United States, and we characterized the land cover surrounding each trap at multiple spatial scales (250-, 500-, and 1000-m buffers). We used occupancy modeling, while accounting for heterogeneity in detection probability, to identify habitat variables that were influential in determining the presence of a particular species. We evaluated 12 competing models for each species, representing various hypotheses pertaining to important habitat features for terrestrial snakes. Overall, considerable interspecific variation existed in important habitat variables and relevant spatial scales. For example, kingsnakes (Lampropeltis getula) were negatively associated with evergreen forests, whereas Louisiana pinesnake (Pituophis ruthveni) occupancy increased with increasing coverage of this forest type. Some species were positively associated with grassland and scrub/shrub (e.g., Slowinski's cornsnake, Elaphe slowinskii) whereas others, (e.g., copperhead, Agkistrodon contortrix, and eastern diamond-backed rattlesnake, Crotalus adamanteus) were positively associated with forested habitats. Although the species that we studied may persist in varied landscapes other than those we identified as important, our data were collected in relatively undeveloped areas. Thus, our findings may be relevant when generating conservation plans or restoration goals. Maintaining or restoring landscapes that are most consistent with the ancestral habitat preferences of terrestrial snake assemblages will require a diverse habitat matrix over large spatial scales.     

Tipping Points and Climate Change: Metaphor Between Science and the Media

Over the past decade, scientists and journalists have prominently utilized the metaphor of a tipping point for drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change. This paper shows how the tipping point metaphor became a multi-purpose bridge between science and the news media, describing how its meaning and use developed and diversified in interaction between these two domains. Within the scientific domain, the metaphor developed from a rhetorical device conveying a warning of drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change to a theoretical concept driving empirical research. The news media soon picked up the tipping point metaphor for abrupt and dangerous climate change, turning it into a common part of the journalistic lexicon. Moreover, both science and the news media developed another, societal use of the tipping point metaphor, calling for radical societal change to avoid climate change catastrophe. The tipping point metaphor is hence not a monolithic notion but a highly versatile concept and expression, allowing it to be used for various communicative purposes by distinct stakeholders in different contexts.     

Does Organic Farming Face Distinctive Livestock Welfare Issues? – A Conceptual Analysis

The recent development and growth oforganic livestock farming and the relateddevelopment of national and internationalregulations has fueled discussions amongscientists and philosophers concerning theproper conceptualization of animal welfare.These discussions on livestock welfare inorganic farming draw on the conventionaldiscussions and disputes on animal welfare thatinvolve issues such as different definitions ofwelfare (clinical health, absence of suffering,sum of positive and negative experiences,etc.), the possibility for objective measuresof animal welfare, and the acceptable level ofwelfare. It seems clear that livestock welfareis a value-laden concept and that animalwelfare science cannot be made independent ofquestions of values and ethics. The questioninvestigated here is whether those values thatunderpin organic farming, in particular, alsoaffect the interpretation of livestock welfare,and, if so, how. While some of the issuesraised in connection with organic farming arerelatively uncontroversial, others are not. Theintroduction of organic farming values seems tointroduce new criteria for what counts as goodanimal welfare, as well as a different ethicalbasis for making moral decisions on welfare.Organic farming embodies distinctive systemicor communitarian ethical ideas and the organicvalues are connected to a systemic conceptionof nature, of agriculture, of the farm, and ofthe animal. The new criteria of welfare arerelated to concepts such as naturalness,harmony, integrity, and care. While the organicvalues overlap with those involved in theconventional discussion of animal welfare, someof them suggest a need to set new prioritiesand to re-conceptualize animal welfare – forexample, with respect to ``naturalness,' inrelation to the possibilities for expression ofnatural behavior and in relation to animalintegrity as a concept for organismic harmony.The organic perspective also seems to suggest awider range of solutions to welfare problemsthan changes in farm routines or operations onthe animals. The systemic solutions include thechoice and reproduction of suitable breeds,changes in the farm structure, and changes inthe larger production and consumption system – including consumer perceptions andpreferences. But the organic values may alsocall for sacrifices of individual welfare in aconventional sense in order to advance welfarefrom the perspective of organic farming.Whether this is good or bad cannot be decidedwithout entering into an inquiry and discussionof the values and ethics involved.     

Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

The main objectives of the current EU project “Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure” (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region.The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision–support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA).Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM NWP model data provided to DEMA by DMI four times a day under operational surveillance and covering Denmark and surroundings. The integration of DERMA in ARGOS is effectuated through automated on-line digital communication and exchange of data. The calculations are carried out in parallel for each NWP model to which DMI has access, thereby providing a mini-ensemble of dispersion forecasts for the emergency management.     

Relationship between bioconcentration in fish and steric factors of hydrophobic chemicals

Most polychlorinated naphthalones (PCN) accumulate rapidly according to their hydrophobicity. The uptake and ellmination rate constants are comparable to those of chlorinated benzenes and biphenyls.For most PCN-congeners the resulting bioaccumulation factors show an increase with increasing hydrophobicity. For higher K_d,oct-values (>10⁵) however, no further increase of K_c is observed (K_c. max. = 3.5.10⁴).For the two hepta- and the octachloronaphthalenes no detectable concentrations are found in the fishes, although no restricted blo-availability could be expected. Based on these observations and on data obtained from the literature. a loss of membrane permeation is suggested for hydrophobic molecules with widths over 9.5 Å.In addition a membrane permeation model, as part of the accumulation process of hydrophobic chemicals. Is proposed, which is based on diffusion and partition processes.