On uncertainty and sensitivity of LCA-based priority setting

Life-cycle assessments are normally made without quantitative estimations of their uncertainty. More interest has been focused on sensitivity analysis. In ISO 14040, LCA standard and SETAC's ‘code of practice’ sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are recommended or even requested. In the EPS system, an analysis of significance and sensitivity has been carried out for several years. The article describes this procedure in ISO terms and generalises it for other types of life-cycle assessments.     

EIA as Regulation: Does it Work?

Since its introduction into Danish planning in 1989, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has been widely discussed. At the centre of the debate the question has been whether EIA has actually offered anything new and there has been a great deal of scepticism about the efficacy of the instrument. Although, in principle EIA offers a holistic and proactive methodology, it does not seem to lead to a more holistic and proactive regulation which covers more ground than traditional planning and environmental regulation. In an evaluation of Danish experiences, this study has looked more closely at the effects of EIA. Three types of effects on projects have been examined: changes occurring prior to the formal application; changes during the EIA process; and the mitigation measures that are demanded of projects. The general conclusion is that EIA does generate a significant number of changes to projects. In approximately half of the cases studied, modifications are made prior to the formal application. During the formal EIA process, modifications were made in more than 90% of the cases. However, most of these could be considered as minor. EIA is characterized by being based upon a broad concept of the environment. It was found that a progressive narrowing of the concept of environment takes place during the course of the EIA process.     

Tipping Points and Climate Change: Metaphor Between Science and the Media

Over the past decade, scientists and journalists have prominently utilized the metaphor of a tipping point for drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change. This paper shows how the tipping point metaphor became a multi-purpose bridge between science and the news media, describing how its meaning and use developed and diversified in interaction between these two domains. Within the scientific domain, the metaphor developed from a rhetorical device conveying a warning of drastic, irreversible and dangerous climate change to a theoretical concept driving empirical research. The news media soon picked up the tipping point metaphor for abrupt and dangerous climate change, turning it into a common part of the journalistic lexicon. Moreover, both science and the news media developed another, societal use of the tipping point metaphor, calling for radical societal change to avoid climate change catastrophe. The tipping point metaphor is hence not a monolithic notion but a highly versatile concept and expression, allowing it to be used for various communicative purposes by distinct stakeholders in different contexts.     

Vegetation phenology gradients along the west and east coasts of Greenland from 2001 to 2015

The objective of this paper is to characterize the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation phenology along latitudinal and altitudinal gradients in Greenland, and to examine local and regional climatic drivers. Time-series from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were analyzed to obtain various phenological metrics for the period 2001–2015. MODIS-derived land surface temperatures were corrected for the sampling biases caused by cloud cover. Results indicate significant differences between West and East Greenland, in terms of both observed phenology during the study period, as well as the climatic response. The date of the start of season (SOS) was significantly earlier (24 days), length of season longer (25 days), and time-integrated NDVI higher in West Greenland. The sea ice concentration during May was found to have a significant effect on the date of the SOS only in West Greenland, with the strongest linkage detected in mid-western parts of Greenland.     

Leaching from MSWI bottom ash: evaluation of non-equilibrium in column percolation experiments

Impacts of non-equilibrium on results of percolation experiments on municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) bottom ash were investigated. Three parallel column experiments were performed: two columns with undisturbed percolation and one column with two sets of 1-month-long flow interruptions applied at liquid-to-solid (L/S) ratios of L/S 2L/kg and 12L/kg, respectively. Concentrations of Na, K, Cl(-), Ca, Si, SO(4)(2-), Al, Cu, Ni, Mo, Ba, Pb, Zn, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were monitored throughout the entire leaching period; geochemical modeling was used to identify non-equilibrium-induced changes in the solubility control. Despite both physical and chemical non-equilibrium, the columns were found to provide adequate information for readily soluble compounds (i.e., Na, Cl(-), and K) and solubility-controlled elements (i.e., Ca, SO(4)(2-), Ba, Si, Al, Zn, and Pb). The leaching of Cu and Ni was shown to depend strongly on DOC leaching, which was likely affected by physical non-equilibrium during flow interruptions. Consequently, the leaching of Cu and Ni in the undisturbed columns was shown to be by about one order of magnitude lower compared with the interrupted column. The results indicate that the leaching of DOC-related metals in laboratory column experiments may be considerably underestimated compared with full-scale scenarios in which the impacts from non-equilibrium may be significantly lower. The leaching of Mo (or MoO(4)(2-)) may be controlled solely by its availability in the mobile zone, which in turn appeared to be controlled by diffusion from the stagnant zone; no Mo controlling minerals were predicted by the geochemical modeling.     

Quantification and source identification of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediment, soil, and water spinach from Hanoi, Vietnam

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were quantified in sediment, soil, and plant material from Hanoi, Vietnam, and an aquatic production system in peri-urban Hanoi. The sum of the concentration of 16 US-EPA priority PAHs ( summation PAH16) ranged between 0.44 and 6.21 mg kg(-1) dw in sediment and between 0.26 and 1.35 mg kg(-1) dw in soil, with decreasing concentrations from the urban area to the peri-urban area, indicating contributions from urban and industrial sources. Double plots of diagnostic source ratios indicate that PAHs originate from mixed petrogenic and pyrogenic sources, the latter being predominant. The predominance of low molecular weight (LMW) PAHs in the sediment samples suggests that petrogenic sources are more prevalent in the water environment than in the soil. In contrast, high molecular weight (HMW) PAHs dominated in water spinach which probably reflects the plant's uptake of particle-bound PAHs that originate from pyrogenic sources.     

Chemical contamination assessment of Gulf of Mexico oysters in response to hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Hurricane Katrina made landfall on August 29, 2005 and caused widespread devastation along the central Gulf Coast states. Less than a month later Hurricane Rita followed a similar track slightly west of Katrina’s. A coordinated multi-agency response followed to collect water, sediment and tissue samples for a variety of chemical, biological and toxicological indicators. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Status and Trends Program (NS&T) participated in this effort by measuring chemical contamination in sediment and oyster tissue as part of the Mussel Watch Program, a long-term monitoring program to assess spatial and temporal trends in a wide range of coastal pollutants. This paper describes results for contaminants measured in oyster tissue collected between September 29 and October 10, 2005 and discusses the results in the context of Mussel Watch and its 20-year record of chemical contamination in the region and the nation. In general, levels of metals in oyster tissue were higher then pre- hurricane levels while organic contaminants were at or near record lows. No contaminant reported here exceeded the FDA action level for food safety.     

Transaction Costs Economics of Irreplaceability: <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex ante</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex post</Emphasis> Evaluation of Conservation Networks’ Vulnerability to Environmental Shocks

The theoretical concept, “asset specificity,” is applied to real data in the context of Danish nature conservation network planning in order to produce illustrative examples of an economic measure of the network’s vulnerability to exogenous shocks to the species composition. Three different measures of asset specificity are quantified from the shadow value of eliminating a key species from the individual grid cells. This represents a novel approach and a different interpretation of the term, as it is conventionally used as a qualitative indicator in the transaction cost economics literature. Apart from supplementing existing cost measures with an indicator of risk associated with investments in protected areas, this study demonstrates how the estimation and interpretation of various asset specificity measures for geographical areas may qualify policy makers’ choice of policy instrument in conservation planning. This differs from the more intuitive approach of basing policy instrument choice solely on the rarity of the species in a given area.