Past and future trends in concentrations of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in the Arctic

Recent trends in nitrogen and sulphur compounds in air and precipitation from a range of Arctic monitoring stations are presented, with seasonal data from the late 70s to 2004 or 2005. Earlier findings of declining sulphur concentrations are confirmed for most stations, while the pattern is less clear for reduced and oxidized nitrogen. In fact there are positive trends for nitrogen compounds in air at several stations. Acidity is generally reduced at many stations while the precipitation amount is either increasing or stable. Variability of sulphate concentrations in air for the period 1991–2000 is reasonably well reproduced at most stations using an Eulerian, hemispherical model. Results for nitrogen compounds are weaker. Scenario studies show that even if large sulphur emission reductions take place in important source regions in South-East Asia in the coming decades, only small changes in Arctic deposition can be expected. This is because South-East Asian emissions have small influence north of the Arctic circle.     

Skill and uncertainty of a regional air quality model ensemble

Recently several regional air quality projects were carried out to support the negotiation under the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme by predicting the impact of emission control policies with an ensemble of models. Within these projects, CITYDELTA and EURODELTA, the fate of air quality at the scale of European cities or that of the European continent was studied using several models. In this article we focus on the results of EURODELTA. The predictive skill of the ensemble of models is described for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and secondary inorganic compounds, and the uncertainty in air quality modelling is examined through the model ensemble spread of concentrations.For ozone daily maxima the ensemble spread origin differs from one region to another. In the neighbourhood of cities or in mountainous areas the spread of predicted values does not span the range of observed data, due to poorly resolved emissions or complex-terrain meteorology. By contrast in Atlantic and North Sea coastal areas the spread of predicted values is found to be larger than the observations. This is attributed to large differences in the boundary conditions used in the different models. For NO₂ daily averages the ensemble spread is generally too small compared with observations. This is because models miss highest values occurring in stagnant meteorology in stable boundary layers near cities. For secondary particulate matter compounds the simulated concentration spread is more balanced, observations falling nearly equiprobably within the ensemble, and the spread originates both from meteorology and aerosol chemistry and thermodynamics.     

A High‐Resolution National‐Scale Hydrologic Forecast System from a Global Ensemble Land Surface Model

Warning systems with the ability to predict floods several days in advance have the potential to benefit tens of millions of people. Accordingly, large‐scale streamflow prediction systems such as the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service or the Global Flood Awareness System are limited to coarse resolutions. This article presents a method for routing global runoff ensemble forecasts and global historical runoff generated by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model using the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge to produce high spatial resolution 15‐day stream forecasts, approximate recurrence intervals, and warning points at locations where streamflow is predicted to exceed the recurrence interval thresholds. The processing method involves distributing the computations using computer clusters to facilitate processing of large watersheds with high‐density stream networks. In addition, the Streamflow Prediction Tool web application was developed for visualizing analyzed results at both the regional level and at the reach level of high‐density stream networks. The application formed part of the base hydrologic forecasting service available to the National Flood Interoperability Experiment and can potentially transform the nation's forecast ability by incorporating ensemble predictions at the nearly 2.7 million reaches of the National Hydrography Plus Version 2 Dataset into the national forecasting system.     

Adsorption of mono- and di-butyltin by a wheat charcoal: pH effects and modeling

Understanding adsorption processes of butyltins (BTs) such as monobutyltin (MBT) and dibutyltin (DBT) by black carbons is important for the evaluation of BT exposure risks to organisms and humans. However, relevant knowledge is scarce. In this study, the acidity constants pK_a,1 = 2.3, pK_a,2 = 3.5 and pK_a,3 = 5.9 for MBT and pK_a,1 = 3.0 and pK_a,2 = 5.1 for DBT are estimated via potentiometric titration. Additionally, adsorption isotherms of BTs to a wheat charcoal were determined. The adsorption behavior was observed to be pH-dependent due to BT speciation and the pH-dependent surface charge of the charcoal. MBT adsorption to the charcoal decreases with increasing pH from 4 to 8, while the highest adsorption occurs at pH 6 for DBT. Adsorption of the BTs is successfully described in the pH range of 3-10 by using a newly developed pH-dependent Dual Langmuir model. The model has the potential to predict the interaction of BT species with charcoal, which can contribute to the risk assessments of BTs in the environment.     

Scenario realism and welfare estimates in choice experiments--a non-market valuation study on the European water framework directive

Using choice experiment data for economic valuation we analyse how disbelief in survey information could affect the retrieved welfare estimates. We distinguish between two types of survey information to the respondents. The first type of information concerns the current environmental status of a water body. This information is provided prior to the valuation questions and the corresponding beliefs in the provided information are also elicited before valuation. The second type of information concerns the proposed improvements in the environmental status of the water body. We find that average welfare measures differ considerably according to whether respondents who disagree with the status quo levels and find proposed scenarios unlikely are included or not.     

Development of molecular marker source profiles for emissions from on-road gasoline and diesel vehicle fleets

As part of the Gasoline/Diesel PM Split Study, relatively large fleets of gasoline vehicles and diesel vehicles were tested on a chassis dynamometer to develop chemical source profiles for source attribution of atmospheric particulate matter in California's South Coast Air Basin. Gasoline vehicles were tested in cold-start and warm-start conditions, and diesel vehicles were tested through several driving cycles. Tailpipe emissions of particulate matter were analyzed for organic tracer compounds, including hopanes, steranes, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Large intervehicle variation was seen in emission rate and composition, and results were averaged to examine the impacts of vehicle ages, weight classes, and driving cycles on the variation. Average profiles, weighted by mass emission rate, had much lower uncertainty than that associated with intervehicle variation. Mass emission rates and elemental carbon/organic carbon (EC/OC) ratios for gasoline vehicle age classes were influenced most by use of cold-start or warm-start driving cycle (factor of 2-7). Individual smoker vehicles had a large range of mass and EC/OC (factors of 40 and 625, respectively). Gasoline vehicle age averages, data on vehicle ages and miles traveled in the area, and several assumptions about smoker contributions were used to create emissions profiles representative of on-road vehicle fleets in the Los Angeles area in 2001. In the representative gasoline fleet profiles, variation was further reduced, with cold-start or warm-start and the representation of smoker vehicles making a difference of approximately a factor of two in mass emission rate and EC/OC. Diesel vehicle profiles were created on the basis of vehicle age, weight class, and driving cycle. Mass emission rate and EC/OC for diesel averages were influenced by vehicle age (factor of 2-5), weight class (factor of 2-7), and driving cycle (factor of 10-20). Absolute and relative emissions of molecular marker compounds showed levels of variation similar to those of mass and EC/OC.     

Fate and availability of glyphosate and AMPA in agricultural soil

The fate of glyphosate and its degradation product aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) was studied in soil. Labeled glyphosate was used to be able to distinguish the measured quantities of glyphosate and AMPA from the background values since the soil was sampled in a field where glyphosate had been used formerly. After addition of labeled glyphosate, the disappearance of glyphosate and the formation and disappearance of AMPA were monitored. The resulting curves were fitted according to a new EU guideline. The best fit of the glyphosate degradation data was obtained using a first-order multi compartment (FOMC) model. DT(50) values of 9 days (glyphosate) and 32 days (AMPA) indicated relatively rapid degradation. After an aging period of 6 months, the leaching risk of each residue was determined by treating the soil with pure water or a phosphate solution (pH 6), to simulate rain over a non-fertilized or fertilized field, respectively. Significantly larger (p < 0.05) amounts of aged glyphosate and AMPA were extracted from the soil when phosphate solution was used as an extraction agent, compared with pure water. This indicates that the risk of leaching of aged glyphosate and AMPA residues from soil is greater in fertilized soil. The blank soil, to which 252 g glyphosate/ha was applied 21 months before this study, contained 0.81 ng glyphosate/g dry soil and 10.46 ng AMPA/g dry soil at the start of the study. Blank soil samples were used as controls without glyphosate addition. After incubation of the blank soil samples for 6 months, a significantly larger amount of AMPA was extracted from the soil treated with phosphate solution than from that treated with pure water. To determine the degree of uptake of aged glyphosate residues by crops growing in the soil, (14)C-labeled glyphosate was applied to soil 6.5 months prior to sowing rape and barley seeds. After 41 days, 0.006 +/- 0.002% and 0.005 +/- 0.001% of the applied radioactivity was measured in rape and barley, respectively.     

How contaminated with ammunition-derived lead is meat from European small game animals? Assessing and reducing risks to human health

Small game animals are generally hunted with lead gunshot which often fragments causing elevated lead concentrations in meat and presenting health risks to frequent consumers and vulnerable groups. We reviewed three decades of European data on lead concentrations in the meat of gamebirds, rabbits and hares across countries with various restrictions on lead gunshot use. Mean meat lead concentrations decreased to a low level in Denmark, the only country in the study with a total ban on lead gunshot use. In contrast, elsewhere in Europe meat lead concentrations increased over time, an unexplained and previously undescribed finding. The only regulatory restriction associated with a decrease in meat lead concentrations was the Danish total ban on lead gunshot use. We calculated an arithmetic mean lead concentration in small game meat of 5.205 ppm w.w. (2011–2021) from across Europe. EU and UK regulators are considering banning lead ammunition for all hunting to protect human and wildlife health. The mean value we found for small game meat (2011–2021) was fourteen times higher than that used in a recent EU-wide risk assessment.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01737-9.