The fiscal implications of climate change and policy responses

This paper is concerned with the implications of climate change, and government policies to address it, for countries’ fiscal systems at the national level. Given the uncertainties associated with climate change and countries’ responses to it, the article can do no more than review and suggest some of the major issues of likely importance for fiscal sustainability and how they might be addressed. First the paper defines fiscal sustainability and addresses some general issues related to countries’ attempts to adapt to or mitigate climate change. It then works through a number of more specific issues, discussing policies such as the implementation of environmental taxes or other instruments for the mitigation of climate change. The assessment of the impacts of such policies on fiscal sustainability requires the application of sophisticated economic models, and the paper briefly explores the relative advantages of different modeling approaches in relation to the assessment of fiscal sustainability under policies to mitigate climate change. The major research need identified by the paper is for the development of macroeconomic models that will enable countries identify the wider effects of environmental taxes and help them undertake multi-year budgeting processes.     

Poly- and perfluorinated compounds in household consumer products

Several household consumer products were analyzed for their content of perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), and fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOH) by nanoflow ultra performance liquid chromatography – mass spectrometry and gas chromatography – mass spectrometry. Among the investigated products, which are applied as sprays, were impregnating agents, cleaning agents, lubricants, and conditioners. In 14 of the 26 products analyzed, at least one polyfluorinated compound (PFC) was detected in 14 samples. 8?:?2 FTOH was the dominating PFC with concentrations up to 149?µg?mL^?1. The maximum concentration of PFOA was 14.5?µg?mL^?1, whereas PFOS was not detected in any sample. Investigated PFCs were mostly found in impregnating agents and lubricants, but were not detected in cleaning agents and conditioners. In FTOH-containing impregnating agents, similar ratios between 6?:?2 FTOH, 8?:?2 FTOH, and 10?:?2 FTOH were found. FTOH proportions in PFC-containing lubricants were similar as well. Total human exposure to PFC from consumer product aerosols for three different scenarios was estimated to be between 42.8 and 464?ng?kg^?1?per day.     

Network position: a key component in the characterization of social personality types

In recent years, animal social interactions have received much attention in terms of personality research (e.g. aggressive or cooperative interactions). However, other components of social behaviour such as those describing the intensity, frequency, directedness and individual repeatability of interactions in animal groups have largely been neglected. Network analysis offers a valuable opportunity to characterize individual consistency of traits in labile social groups and therein provide novel insights to personality research in ways previously not possible using traditional techniques. Should individual network positions be consistently different between individuals under changing conditions, they might reflect expressions of an individual's personality. Here, we discuss a conceptual framework for using network analyses to infer the presence of individual differences and present a statistical test based on randomization techniques for testing the consistency of network positions in individuals. The statistical tools presented are useful because if particular individuals consistently occupy key positions in social networks, then this is also likely to have consequences for their fitness as well as for that of others in the population. These consequences may be particularly significant since individual network position has been shown to be important for the transmission of diseases, socially learnt information and genetic material between individuals and populations.     

Spatio-temporal vigilance architecture of an Australian flying-fox colony

The social structure of animal aggregations may vary considerably in both space and time, yet little is known about how this affects vigilance. Here, we investigate the vigilance architecture of a colony of wild-living grey-headed flying-foxes (Pteropus poliocephalus) in Australia and examine how spatial as well as temporal variation in social organization influences social and environmental vigilance. We sampled color-marked individuals at different stages of the reproductive cycle and the year and at different locations in the colony to examine the effects of temporal and spatial factors on social and environmental vigilance. We found that vigilance architecture reflected the social structure of the colony, with the highest environmental vigilance being displayed by bats at the periphery of the colony, and the highest social vigilance by bats that roosted at intermediate distances from the colony’s edge. Furthermore, we found that vigilance levels reflected changes in reproductive state, with social vigilance increasing toward the mating season, particularly in males. Our findings show that spatial and temporal variation in social structure can have differential effects on social and environmental vigilance. This highlights the necessity to differentiate between functions of vigilance to understand fully vigilance architecture in aggregations of social animals.     

How maize root volatiles affect the efficacy of entomopathogenic nematodes in controlling the western corn rootworm?

Because the ferocious maize pest Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte can adapt to all currently used control strategies, focus has turned to the development of novel, more sustainable control methods, such as biological control using entomopathogenic nematodes (EPN). A good understanding of the biology and behaviour of these potential control agents is essential for their successful deployment. Root systems of many maize varieties emit (E)-β-caryophyllene (EβC) in response to feeding by larvae of the beetle D. v. virgifera. This sesquiterpene has been shown to attract certain species of EPN, thereby enhancing their control potential. In this study, we tested the effect of this root-produced volatile on the field efficacy of the three EPN Heterorhabditis bacteriophora, Heterorhabditis megidis and Steinernema feltiae against D. v. virgifera larvae in southern Hungary. By comparing beetle emergence and root damage for two maize varieties, one that emits EβC and one that does not, it was found that root protection by H. megidis and S. feltiae was higher on the emitting variety, but this was not the case for H. bacteriophora. Overall, all three nematode species showed good control potential. We conclude that, if properly applied and in combination with the right maize variety, the release of these nematodes can be as effective as other control methods.     

A multi-scale examination of stopover habitat use by birds

Most of our understanding of habitat use by migrating land birds comes from studies conducted at single, small spatial scales, which may overemphasize the importance of intrinsic habitat factors, such as food availability, in shaping migrant distributions. We believe that a multi-scale approach is essential to assess the influence of factors that control en route habitat use. We determined the relative importance of eight variables, each operating at a habitat-patch, landscape, or regional spatial scale, in explaining the differential use of hardwood forests by Nearctic-Neotropical land birds during migration. We estimated bird densities through transect surveys at sites near the Mississippi coast during spring and autumn migration within landscapes with variable amounts of hardwood forest cover. At a regional scale, migrant density increased with proximity to the coast, which was of moderate importance in explaining bird densities, probably due to constraints imposed on migrants when negotiating the Gulf of Mexico. The amount of hardwood forest cover at a landscape scale was positively correlated with arthropod abundance and had the greatest importance in explaining densities of all migrants, as a group, during spring, and of insectivorous migrants during autumn. Among landscape scales ranging from 500 m to 10 km radius, the densities of migrants were, on average, most strongly and positively related to the amount of hardwood forest cover within a 5 km radius. We suggest that hardwood forest cover at this scale may be an indicator of habitat quality that migrants use as a cue when landing at the end of a migratory flight. At the patch scale, direct measures of arthropod abundance and plant community composition were also important in explaining migrant densities, whereas habitat structure was of little importance. The relative amount of fleshy-fruited trees was positively related and was the most important variable explaining frugivorous migrant density during autumn. Although constraints extrinsic to habitat had a moderate role in explaining migrant distributions, our results are consistent with the view that food availability is the ultimate factor shaping the distributions of birds during stopover.     

Treibhausgas-Emissionen zukünftiger Erdgas-Bereitstellung für Deutschland

Background

Natural gas makes a significant contribution to the current energy supply and its importance, in relation to both the German and worldwide energy supplies, will increase further in decades to come. In addition to its high degree of efficiency, the low level of direct GHG combustion emissions is also an advantageous factor. However, around 90% of natural gas is methane (CH₄), which is the second most significant GHG due to its high greenhouse potential (21 times higher than CO₂). Therefore, high levels of direct gas losses of natural gas in its production, processing, transport and distribution could neutralise its low emission advantages. This is particularly apparent when considering the growing distances between production and use, the demanding production processes and the upcoming worldwide market for LNG (liquefied natural gas).

Aim

This paper aims to analyse and illustrate the future GHG emissions of the whole process chain of natural gas (indirect emissions) to be supplied to the German border over the next 2 decades. This should allow the comparison of total GHG emissions (indirect and direct) of natural gas with the GHG emissions of other fossil fuels. By considering likely changes in gas origin as well as dynamic changes in the infrastructure and technology of gas production, processing and transport until 2030, all relevant factors are included. The study focuses on the emissions of Russian natural gas as Russia is already, and will be in the future, the most important gas supplier to the German and European gas markets.

Results and Discussion

The analysis illustrates a significant change in the gas supply over the next two decades. The EU Gas Fields are in decline and it is predicted that these will run dry. In parallel the share of Russian and Norwegian natural gas, and also the levels of LNG production (e.g. from Algeria or Egypt), will increase. Although the potential for GHG emissions tends to grow as a result of greater transport distances and demanding production and processing activities, high investment in necessary mitigation options (e.g. through replacing older and inefficient technology; updating to state-of-the-art technology) may neutralise the increase. The overall result of these counteracting trends will be to decrease GHG emissions, in a range of around 12% per TJ of direct emissions of natural gas, depending on the level of investment in the modernisation of the Russian gas infrastructure and the improvements of the LNG process. In the two given scenarios the indirect emissions of the natural gas used in Germany will decrease from about 23 million t CO₂-eq (2005) to 19.5 or 17.6 million t CO₂-eq in the year 2030. In spite of a significant higher gas consumption the emissions are reduced in the first scenario due to technical modifications. In the second scenario the emission reduction is based on the lower gas consumption.

Conclusions

At present, the indirect GHG emissions of the natural gas process chain are comparable to the indirect emissions produced by oil and coal. The emission trend of the natural gas process chain will markedly decrease if the mitigation options are followed consistently. However, in order to ensure the long-term security of natural gas supply for future decades, a high level of investment is essential. With regard to future emissions, the best available technology and, therefore, that which is most economically feasible in the long term, should be used. Under these conditions natural gas — as the fossil fuel with the lowest levels of GHG emissions — can play a major role in the transition to a renewable energy supply for the future.     

Reaching National Kyoto Targets in Germany and Sustainable Development

Within this paper, we analyze the fulfillment of the Kyoto emissions reduction commitment particularly in Germany and its implication on the long-term paths of all macro-variables. Germany, like all other industrial or Annex-B countries, must reduce its emissions by 2010 according to what we call a Kyoto Forever scenario. We specifically investigate tradable permits as reduction measures in a national overlapping generations (OLG) model, where we change the discounting technique by using generation adjusted discounting (GAD) in comparison to conventional OLG discounting. We show that within our model framework Germany is able to develop along growing paths of, for example, gross domestic product (GDP) in sharp contrast to conventional results of OLG simulations. At the same time, current generations must share higher burdens in terms of lower GDP, per capita consumption and employment which can be initially interpreted as contemporary costs for reaching sustainable paths and, second, contributions for internalizing external effects. However, all costs in terms of lower macro-variables for current living generations are re-compensated through higher future values. This effect can be interpreted as an intergenerational application of full cost bearance, or, in other words, the polluter pays principle which is oriented towards sustainability of greenhouse gases abatement.     

Transport of radon gas into a tunnel at Yucca Mountain--estimating large-scale fractured tuff hydraulic properties and implications for the operation of the ventilation system

Radon gas concentrations have been monitored as part of the operation of a tunnel (the Exploratory Studies Facility-ESF) at Yucca Mountain to ensure worker safety. The objective of this study was to examine the potential use of the radon data to estimate large-scale formation properties of fractured tuffs. This objective was examined by developing a numerical model, based upon the characteristics of the ESF and the Topopah Spring welded (TSw) tuff unit, capable of predicting radon concentrations for prescribed ventilation conditions. The model was used to address two specific issues. First, it was used to estimate the permeability and porosity of the fractures in the TSw at the length scale of the ESF and extending tens of meters into the TSw, which surrounds the ESF. Second, the model was used to understand the mechanism leading to radon concentrations exceeding a specified level within the ESF. The mechanism controlling radon concentrations in the ESF is a function of atmospheric barometric fluctuations being propagated down the ESF along with ventilated air flow and the slight suction induced by the ventilation exhaust fans at the South Portal of the ESF. These pressure fluctuations are dampened in the TSw fracture continuum according to its permeability and porosity. Consequently, as the barometric pressure in the ESF drops rapidly, formation gases from the TSw are pulled into the ESF, resulting in an increase in radon concentrations. Model calibration to both radon concentrations measured in the ESF and gas-phase pressure fluctuations in the TSw yielded concurrent estimates of TSw fracture permeability and porosity of 1 x 10(-11) m2 and 0.00034, respectively. The calibrated model was then used as a design tool to predict the effect of adjusting the current ventilation-system operation strategy for reducing the probability of radon gas concentrations exceeding a specified level.