Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies

Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government’s ability to plan for and share out extreme event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event. We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities (“hidden disaster deficits”) when interacting with weak fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered, such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses on the management of today’s extreme events and does not discuss in detail projections of risks into a future with climate change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for both climate and also socioeconomic change.     

Common criteria for the redefinition of Intermediate Less Favoured Areas in the European Union

This article defines eight key climate, soil and terrain criteria that have been developed for the future delimitation of the Intermediate Less Favoured Areas (LFAs) support, a measure of the Common Agricultural Policy. The LFA scheme has existed since 1975 and is a broad mechanism for improving the viability of agriculture in areas with natural handicaps. The common criteria have been developed for the European Commission's Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development to satisfy the objectives in the Rural Development Policy 2007–2013 (Axis II), which aim to improve the environment and the countryside by more sustainable land management. The criteria were developed by experts, coordinated by the European Commissions Joint Research Centre, to meet the requirement for a robust and harmonised approach of identifying areas that experience natural constraints to agriculture throughout the EU 27 Member States. The criteria proposed are: temperature, heat stress, drainage, soil texture and stoniness, soil rooting depth, soil chemical properties, soil moisture balance and slope. Each criterion is described and an indicative threshold for assessment of its impact on agriculture is provided. The criteria are currently being tested by the EU Member States for a future possible legislation.     

Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa. Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi

This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.

Chronosequence analysis of two enclosure management strategies in degraded rangeland of semi-arid Kenya

The establishment of enclosures has become an important measure to combat land degradation in many of the world's semi-arid rangelands. In view of the increased pressure exerted by this land reclamation strategy on the neighbouring agricultural lands, knowledge of the time required for restoring vegetation cover and soil health, and of the potential positive impact of an adapted management strategy, is highly required. This paper assesses the vegetation and soil rehabilitation in a 23-year chronosequence of two different enclosure management types. In the severely degraded, semi-arid Njemps Flats plain of the Lake Baringo Basin in Kenya communal enclosures characterised by high quality inputs and strict control, and private enclosures managed by individual farmers, were installed since the 1980s. Six communal enclosures (3–17 years since establishment) and six private enclosures (13–23 years since establishment) were selected. Vegetation cover was estimated along three 50 m transects set within each enclosure and in the adjacent open grazing area using the point-to-line transect method. Five 0.5 m² quadrats systematically placed alongside each transect were sampled for herbaceous standing biomass and topsoil physical, chemical and biological analyses. Grass cover and herbaceous biomass production proved to be the most responsive biotic parameters under both management types, whereas the recovery of the forbs was unsuccessful. Under communal management, the biomass production fully recovered up to its optimal level as recorded in the neighbouring nature reserves. Within private enclosures however, the adopted management strategies seriously restricted biomass production to a significantly lower level. Soil quality generally recovered more slowly with time. Significant improvements compared to the open rangeland were recorded in topsoil bulk density, organic C and total N stocks, and microbial biomass C and N stocks of the communal enclosures. Unlike the communal enclosures, only topsoil bulk density and the microbial biomass C stock showed a significant difference in the private enclosures. With respect to C and total N stocks, and the microbial biomass N a non-significant improving trend was recorded. The level of chemical and biological soil quality obtained under both management types is still low and draws the attention to the importance of careful monitoring of grazing and grass cutting activities under both enclosure management strategies. The chronosequences further highlight the potential of some well-managed private enclosures, whereas intrinsic soil properties such as high alkalinity, as well as changes in management, limit the rehabilitation of some other private as well as communal enclosures.     

Oxidation of As（Ⅲ） by potassium permanganate

The oxidation of As（Ⅲ） with potassium permanganate was studied under conditions including pH, initial As（Ⅲ） concentration and dosage of Mn（Ⅶ）. The results have shown that potassium permanganate was an effective agent for oxidation of As（Ⅲ） in a wide pH range. The pH value of tested water was not a significant factor affecting the oxidation of As（Ⅲ） by Mn（Ⅲ）. Although theoretical redox analyses suggest that Mn（Ⅶ） should have better performance in oxidization of As（Ⅲ） within lower pH ranges, the experimental results show that the oxidation efficiencies of As（Ⅲ） under basic and acidic conditions were similar, which may be due to the adsorption of As（Ⅲ） on the Mn（OH）2 and MnO2 resulting from the oxidation of As（Ⅲ）.     

Unraveling the causes of the toxicity of extremely acid waters of volcanic origin

A river ecosystem in East Java, Indonesia, fed by a volcanic lake with high concentrations of dissolved metals and a low pH, was found to support only few macroinvertebrates. To unravel the causes of toxicity and to determine the level of dilution necessary to obtain non-toxic water, a bioassay was conducted with the fairy shrimp Thamnocephalus platyurus. A partial toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) approach was used with EDTA as a chelating agent to relate toxicity to pH and metal concentrations. Three water samples were tested, with pHs ranging from 0.72 to 4.5, and diluted with water from a neutral river to different degrees. The dilution factor necessary to achieve no more than 50% mortality in the Thamnotox test (Ldf(50)) varied from >300 at the most acidic site, to 7 for water of pH 2.6 and 1.5 for water of pH 4.5. Toxicity was best explained from both low pH and high concentrations of metals, especially Al and Fe. The key role of Al and Fe in the toxicity was confirmed by relating concentrations of the different compounds in the river water to toxicity data from the literature. EDTA addition did not significantly influence Ldf(50) or the lethal pH 50% (LpH(50)), suggesting a large effect, besides cationic components and pH, of anions (F, SO(4) and Cl).     

Experimental evaluation of the usefulness of feathers as a non-destructive biomonitor for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) using silastic implants as a novel method of exposure

Risk assessment of pollutants requires both monitoring studies in the field and experimental exposure studies. In this study, we evaluated silastic implants as an alternative method of exposure for use in toxicological studies and at the same time evaluated the usefulness of feathers as a non-destructive biomonitor for PCBs. European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) were exposed to different doses (including a control group) of environmentally relevant concentrations of PCB 153 during a 15-week period using silastic implants with both ends/only one end sealed. After implantation, there was a rapid and significant increase in PCB 153 blood concentration in the exposed groups. The significant differences in blood concentrations among the treatment groups show that silastic implants are useful as a method of exposure. Moreover, the ratio between the tissue concentrations of two treatment groups reflected the difference in implantation doses between these groups. There was also a clear difference in tissue concentrations among the treatment groups, although we could not test this statistically due to the small sample sizes. The slow release kinetics for a prolonged period and the relatively stable blood concentrations during the 15-week period render silastic tubes very interesting to study the effects of chronic exposure to pollutants. Our results also revealed that sealing both ends of the implant instead of only one did not significantly affect the exposure. There were strong, significant positive correlations between the blood and the tissues, which confirm the use of blood to monitor PCBs. To evaluate the usefulness of feathers as a non-destructive biomonitor for PCBs, we plucked the original and newly grown wing and tail feathers. We observed strong, significant positive correlations between the concentrations in the newly grown feathers and concentrations in the muscle, liver, brain and blood. PCB 153 concentrations in the newly grown feathers differed among the treatment groups. To our knowledge, our results provide the first experimental evidence that feathers are useful as a non-destructive biomonitoring tool for PCBs.     

PFOS levels in the blood and liver of a small insectivorous songbird near a fluorochemical plant

Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) is the stable end product of the degradation of various perfluorinated compounds and is the predominant compound found in the environment and biota. PFOS is a widespread environmental contaminant that is found in a great diversity of wildlife species with more elevated tissue concentrations in animals from populated and industrialized areas. In this study we determined the PFOS accumulation in blood and livers of a small songbird, the great tit (Parus major), in the vicinity of a large fluorochemical plant in Antwerp, Belgium. PFOS concentrations ranged from 553 ng/g to 11359 ng/g in liver and ranged from 24 to 1625 ng/ml in blood, which are among the highest ever reported in free-living animals, and exceeded in almost all birds the hepatic benchmark concentrations for the protection of avian species [Beach SA, Newsted JL, Coady K, Giesy JP. Ecotoxicological evaluation of perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS). Rev Environ Contam Toxicol 2006;186:133-174]. Although PFOS concentrations in liver and blood decreased significantly within approximately 5.5 km of the plant, differences were smaller than previously described for wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) and nestling great tits. PFOS concentrations in liver and blood were higher in young birds (one-year old). No significant sex differences were found. A highly significant correlation between liver and blood concentrations indicates the usefulness of blood as a non-destructive matrix for biomonitoring purposes.     

腐殖酸可降低纳米银的水生生物毒性

本文作者主要研究了腐殖酸对聚乙烯吡咯烷酮包覆的纳米银颗粒(polyvinylpyrrolidone-coated AgNPs)毒性的影响,受试生物涵盖了水生系统不同的营养级别,包括藻类(Raphidocelis subcapitata)、水蚤类(Chydorus sphaericus)以及淡水鱼类(Danio rerio)。结果显示,腐殖酸可降低AgNPs对本研究中所有水生生物的毒性,并具有明显的剂量效应关系。原因为：1）腐殖酸使AgNPs表面带有更多负电荷,这阻碍了AgNPs与藻细胞的接触,使毒性降低;2）腐殖酸抑制了AgNPs中Ag⁺的溶出,而本研究显示自由Ag⁺的毒性高于团聚的纳米银颗粒。
精选自Zhuang Wang, Joris T.K. Quik, Lan Song, Evert-Jan Van Den Brandhof, Marja Wouterse and Willie J.G.M. Peijnenburg. Humic substances alleviate the aquatic toxicity of polyvinylpyrrolidone-coated silver nanoparticles to organisms of different trophic levels. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 34, Issue 6, pages 1239–1245, June 2015. DOI: 10.1002/etc.2936
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.2936/full