Flexible modeling for stock-recruitment relationships using Bayesian nonparametric mixtures

The stock and recruitment relationship is fundamental to the management of fishery natural resources. However, inferring stock-recruitment relationships is a challenging problem because of the limited available data, the collection of plausible models, and the biological characteristics that should be reflected in the model. Motivated by limitations of traditional parametric stock-recruitment models, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach based on a mixture model for the joint distribution of log-reproductive success and stock biomass. Flexible mixture modeling for this bivariate distribution yields rich inference for the stock-recruitment relationship through the implied conditional distribution of log-reproductive success given stock biomass. The method is illustrated with cod data from six regions of the North Atlantic, including comparison with simpler Bayesian parametric and semiparametric models.     

Delayed breeding in the cooperatively breeding Florida scrub-jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens): inhibition or the absence of stimulation?

To determine whether fundamental differences exist in the reproductive physiology of breeder and nonbreeder Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens), we compared plasma levels of testosterone (T) and luteinizing hormone (LH) in males, and estradiol (E₂) and LH in females. Although male breeders had higher overall T and larger testes, nonbreeders’ T paralleled that of breeders, and their testes were more than an order of magnitude larger than regressed testes. Breeder and nonbreeder males had equivalent baseline LH, and equivalent changes in LH following a gonadotropin-releasing hormone (cGnRH-I) challenge. The T, LH and GnRH challenge data indicate that nonbreeder males have functional hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axes. We found no hormonal evidence of inbreeding suppression in males: nonbreeders that did not live with their mothers and those that did had similar T. Male nonbreeders that were exposed to E₂-implanted females had higher T than did controls, suggesting that the lack of within-pair stimulation is a key factor in whether an individual delays breeding. Female nonbreeders had E₂ titres equal to or higher than breeders and neither basal LH nor LH following GnRH challenge differed by breeding status. Nonbreeders’ ovarian follicles were smaller than breeders’, but were larger than they would be during the non-breeding season. These data suggest that nonbreeders were primed for breeding and were simply waiting for an opportunity or a required stimulus. Female nonbreeders that lived in a territory with an unrelated male breeder had significantly higher E₂ than those that remained with their fathers. Similarly, nonbreeders that were captured away from their home territories had elevated E₂. However, nonbreeders that lived with their fathers had E₂ that was equivalent to breeding females, suggesting that inbreeding avoidance may not be the primary factor leading to delayed breeding in females. Received: 13 June 1995 /Accepted after revision: 27 April 1996     

A conceptual model of the social–ecological system of nature-based solutions in urban environments

This article provides a perspective on nature-based solutions. First, the argument is developed that nature-based solutions integrate social and ecological systems. Then, theoretical considerations relating to relational values, multifunctionality, transdisciplinarity, and polycentric governance are briefly outlined. Finally, a conceptual model of the social–ecological system of nature-based solutions is synthesised and presented. This conceptual model comprehensively defines the social and ecological external and internal systems that make up nature-based solutions, and identifies theoretical considerations that need to be addressed at different stages of their planning and implementation The model bridges the normative gaps of existing nature-based solution frameworks and could be used for consistent, comprehensive, and transferable comparisons internationally. The theoretical considerations addressed in this article inform practitioners, policymakers, and researchers about the essential components of nature-based solutions. The conceptual model can facilitate the identification of social and ecological interconnections within nature-based solutions and the range of stakeholders and disciplines involved.     

Kosovo-Konflikt: Ökologische Auswirkungen

10 years ago, the WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature) began to support the work of environmental protection in the countries of Eastern Europe. A main topic is the Danube-Carpathian Program. With the beginning of the bombardements, connected with great amounts of chemicals released directly and as clouds from the fires and explosions, the question raises: What are the consequences for mankind and nature? Is there a risk for the Danube-Carpathian Program? The WWF feels responsible for reporting about these consequences. In July 1999, a group of two Oil Experts and two scientists (each a chemist and a toxicologist) visited Belgrad, Pan?evo and Novi Sad, took samples of soil and water, and estimated the contents of dangerous substances. The first findings and the first consequences for nature and human health are described.     

Older can be better: physiological costs of paternal investment in the Florida scrub-jay

In species that undergo actuarial senescence, the value of current reproduction is predicted to increase relative to the value of future reproduction with age, as the probability of survival to another reproductive event is reduced. Therefore, life history theory predicts that aging animals should increase their investment in reproduction. However, an increase in reproductive investment may carry significant costs to the breeding individuals. We recorded provisioning rates of Florida scrub-jay male breeders, followed by their immediate capture to assess body condition and collect blood for an in vitro test of immunocompetence and an assay of baseline corticosterone for a measure of stress. Older males provisioned offspring and brooding mates at the highest rates. There was no evidence of any physiological deficits in males with high provisioning rates, independent of age. It appears that birds that survive to old age are high quality birds that maintain good physiological condition, which complements the value of experience and permits maximal investment in offspring.