Desirable design characteristics for long-term monitoring of ecological variables

Long-term environmental monitoring places a set of demands on a sampling strategy not present in a survey designed for a single time period. The inevitability that a sample will become out of date must be a dominant consideration in planning a long-term monitoring programme. The sampling strategy must be able to accommodate periodic frame update and sample restructuring in order to address changes in the composition of the universe and changes in the perception of issues leading to new questions and concerns. The sampling strategy must be capable of adapting to such changes while maintaining its identification as a probability sample and its capacity to detect trends that span the update occasions. These issues are examined with respect to sub-population estimation, post-stratification via conditioning, and sample enlargement and reduction. Design features that involve complex sample structure create potentially serious difficulties, whereas an equal probability design permits greater adaptability and flexibility. Structure should be employed sparingly and in awareness of its undesirable effects.     

Extraction capacity and the optimal order of extraction

The least-cost-first extraction rule for deposits with different extraction costs previously has been shown to be invalid in general equilibrium. This paper demonstrates that this rule also does not hold in partial equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited. Necessary and sufficient conditions for several surprising extraction orders are presented. If extraction from a high-cost resource is constrained, it may be optimal to begin extraction from a high-cost deposit (or backstop) strictly before extracting from a lower-cost deposit. If extraction from a low-cost resource is limited, it may be optimal to exhaust a high-cost deposit strictly before the low-cost deposit is exhausted or to abandon extraction temporarily from a high-cost deposit and then to exhaust it later. The analysis demonstrates how extraction constraints affect the order of extraction and shows that certain cost reversals are caused by limited extraction capacity rather than by the general equilibrium definition of extraction costs.     

Set-up costs and the existence of competitive equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited

Although set-up costs are prevalent and substantial in natural resource extraction, it is known that a Walrasian competitive equilibrium cannot exist in simple extraction models with set-up costs. This paper demonstrates that this result is sensitive to the assumption of unlimited extraction capacity and derives sufficient conditions for existence. An equilibrium exists if extraction is limited such that each firm earns sufficient surplus to cover its set-up costs or if firms choose extraction capacity subject to non-increasing returns. The resulting competitive equilibrium price either grows at the rate of interest when total extraction is below industry capacity or is constant when industry capacity is fully utilized. In the equilibrium, identical deposits are opened simultaneously, and set-up costs for new deposits are incurred when the industry has excess capacity rather than when capacity is fully utilized.     

Comparison of distribution function estimators for forestry applications following variable probability sampling

Practical considerations often motivate employing variable probability sampling designs when estimating characteristics of forest populations. Three distribution function estimators, the Horvitz-Thompson estimator, a difference estimator, and a ratio estimator, are compared following variable probability sampling in which the inclusion probabilities are proportional to an auxiliary variable, X. Relative performance of the estimators is affected by several factors, including the distribution of the inclusion probabilities, the correlation () between X and the response Y, and the position along the distribution function being estimated. Both the ratio and difference estimators are superior to the Horvitz-Thompson estimator. The difference estimator gains better precision than the ratio estimator toward the upper portion of the distribution function, but the ratio estimator is superior toward the lower end of the distribution function. The point along the distribution function at which the difference estimator becomes more precise than the ratio estimator depends on the sampling design, as well as the coefficient of variation of X and . A simple confidence interval procedure provides close to nominal coverage for intervals constructed from both the difference and ratio estimators, with the exception that coverage may be poor for the lower tail of the distribution function when using the ratio estimator.     

Quorum sensing, recruitment, and collective decision-making during colony emigration by the ant Leptothorax albipennis

When its nest is damaged, a colony of the ant Leptothorax albipennis skillfully emigrates to the best available new site. We investigated how this ability emerges from the behaviors used by ants to recruit nestmates to potential homes. We found that, in a given emigration, only one-third of the colony's workers ever recruit. At first, they summon fellow recruiters via tandem runs, in which a single follower is physically led all the way to the new site. They later switch to recruiting the passive majority of the colony via transports, in which nestmates are simply carried to the site. After this switch, tandem runs continue sporadically but now run in the opposite direction, leading recruiters back to the old nest. Recruitment accelerates with the start of transport, which proceeds at a rate 3 times greater than that of tandem runs. The recruitment switch is triggered by population increase at the new site, such that ants lead tandem runs when the site is relatively empty, but change to transport once a quorum of nestmates is present. A model shows that the quorum requirement can help a colony choose the best available site, even when few ants have the opportunity to compare sites directly, because recruiters to a given site launch the rapid transport of the bulk of the colony only if enough active ants have been "convinced" of the worth of the site. This exemplifies how insect societies can achieve adaptive colony-level behaviors from the decentralized interactions of relatively poorly informed insects, each combining her own limited direct information with indirect cues about the experience of her nestmates.     

Genetic Structure and Migration in Native and Reintroduced Rocky Mountain Wolf Populations

Gray wolf (Canis lupus) recovery in the Rocky Mountains of the U.S. is proceeding by both natural recolonization and managed reintroduction. We used DNA microsatellite analysis of wolves transplanted from Canada to two reintroduction sites in the U.S. to study population structure in native and reintroduced wolf populations. Gene flow due to migration between regions in Canada is substantial, and all three recovery populations in the U.S. had high genetic variation. The reintroduced founders were moderately genetically divergent from the naturally colonizing U.S. population. These findings corroborate that the reintroduction more than meets generally accepted genetic guidelines. Maintaining this variation, however, will depend on ample reproduction in the first few generations. In the long term genetic variation will best be retained if migration occurs among the recolonizing and the two transplanted populations. Evidence from field observation and genetic studies shows extensive dispersal by wolves, and we conclude that exchange among these groups due to natural dispersal is likely if public tolerance and legal protection are adequate outside lands designated for wolf recovery.     

Environmental Information Systems in Malaria Risk Mapping and Epidemic Forecasting

Every year between one and two million African children under five die of malaria. If one adds to this the contribution of malaria to all-cause infant mortality then clearly the burden of the disease is catastrophic — a disaster quietly happening each and every year. New tools are needed urgently to support those currently available for control of the disease. An effective vaccine remains elusive. This article outlines the potential contribution to malaria control services of satellite information, which is being used by resource managers in other sectors. In particular, it highlights the lessons which can be learned from early warning systems in other areas, especially those designed to respond to famine. An appendix provides a brief introduction to satellite data and their interpretation.     

Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein and fetal triploidy

Fetal triploidy is commonly found in early pregnancy. The majority of these pregnancies spontaneously abort in the first trimester. Occasionally, the pregnancy progresses to the second and third trimesters. We reviewed the maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP), amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), amniotic fluid acetylcholinesterase (ACHE), fetal pathology, and placental pathology in sex second-trimester pregnancies complicated by fetal triploidy. Four of these patients had MSAFP values greater than 7.5 multiples of the median (MoM). Five of six pregnancies had MSAFP values greater than 2.25 MoM. All five of these patients had a partial mole. Four patients had amniotic fluid AFP values greater than 2.0 MoM. Two fetuses had associated neural tube defects. These were the only patients with positive amniotic fluid ACHE. None of the other patients had fetuses with anomalies that are known to be associated with an elevated MSAFP. The elevated MSAFP appeared to be related to the presence of a partial mole. Two of the five cases with an MSAFP greater than 2.25 MoM did not have sonographic evidence of a significant anomaly. Therefore, karyotyping can be of benefit in evaluating patients with elevated MSAFP.     

Predicting extents of mercury oxidation in coal-derived flue gases

The proposed mercury (Hg) oxidation mechanism consists of a 168-step gas phase mechanism that accounts for interaction among all important flue gas species and a heterogeneous oxidation mechanism on unburned carbon (UBC) particles, similar to established chemistry for dioxin production under comparable conditions. The mechanism was incorporated into a gas cleaning system simulator to predict the proportions of elemental and oxidized Hg species in the flue gases, given relevant coal properties (C/H/O/N/S/Cl/Hg), flue gas composition (O2, H2O, HCl), emissions (NO(X), SO(X), CO), the recovery of fly ash, fly ash loss-on-ignition (LOI), and a thermal history. Predictions are validated without parameter adjustments against datasets from lab-scale and from pilot-scale coal furnaces at 1 and 29 MWt. Collectively, the evaluations cover 16 coals representing ranks from sub-bituminous through high-volatile bituminous, including cases with Cl2 and CaCl2 injection. The predictions are, therefore, validated over virtually the entire domain of Cl-species concentrations and UBC levels of commercial interest. Additional predictions identify the most important operating conditions in the furnace and gas cleaning system, including stoichiometric ratio, NO(X), LOI, and residence time, as well as the most important coal properties, including coal-Cl.