Uncertainty requirements in radiative forcing of climate change

The continuing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) makes it essential that climate sensitivity, the equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature that would result from a given radiative forcing, be quantified with known uncertainty. Present estimates are quite uncertain, 3 +/- 1.5 K for doubling of CO2. Model studies examining climate response to forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit large differences in sensitivities and imposed aerosol forcings that raise questions regarding claims of their having reproduced observed large-scale changes in surface temperature over the 20th century. Present uncertainty in forcing, caused largely by uncertainty in forcing by aerosols, precludes meaningful model evaluation by comparison with observed global temperature change or empirical determination of climate sensitivity. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing must be reduced at least three-fold for uncertainty in climate sensitivity to be meaningfully reduced and bounded.     

Effects of pH on the toxicity of cadmium, copper, lead and zinc to Folsomia candida Willem, 1902 (Collembola) in a standard laboratory test system

EC₅₀s for cadmium, copper, lead and zinc were determined for juvenile production of Folsomia candida at pH6.0, 5.0 and 4.5 in a standard laboratory test system. In contrast to most previous studies where metal toxicity was increased at low pHs, in our experiments there was no clear relationship between soil acidity and EC_{50-reproduction} in this species. The EC_{50-reproduction} values (μg g⁻¹) for cadmium and zinc were similar at all three pHs (pH6.0: Cd 590, Zn 900; pH5.0: Cd 780, Zn 600; pH4.5: Cd 480, Zn 590). In contaminated field sites adjacent to primary zinc smelters, zinc is invariably present in soils at concentrations of at least 50 times that of cadmium Thus deleterious effects of mixtures of these metals on populations of Collembola in such sites can be attributed to zinc rather than cadmium.     

Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

A mechanism for mercury oxidation in coat-derived exhausts

This paper evaluates an elementary reaction mechanism for Hg0 oxidation in coal-derived exhausts consisting of a previously formulated homogeneous mechanism with 102 steps and a new three-step heterogeneous mechanism for unburned carbon (UBC) particles. Model predictions were evaluated with the extents of Hg oxidation monitored in the exhausts from a pilot-scale coal flame fired with five different coals. Exhaust conditions in the tests were very similar to those in full-scale systems. The predictions were quantitatively consistent with the reported coal-quality impacts over the full range of residence times. The role of Cl atoms in the homogeneous mechanism is hereby supplanted with carbon sites that have been chlorinated by HCl. The large storage capacity of carbon for Cl provided a source of Cl for Hg oxidation over a broad temperature range, so initiation was not problematic. Super-equilibrium levels of Cl atoms were not required, so Hg was predicted to oxidize in systems with realistic quench rates. Whereas many fundamental aspects of the heterogeneous chemistry remain uncertain, the information needed to characterize Hg oxidation in coal-derived exhausts is now evident: complete gas compositions (CO, hydrocarbons, H2O, O2 NOx, SOx), UBC properties (size, total surface area), and the ash partitioning throughout the exhaust system are required.     

Dietary and environmental estrogens and antiestrogens and their possible role in human disease

Recent reports have suggested that dietary and environmental estrogens such as organochlorine pollutants may play a role in the increased incidence of breast cancer in women and disorders of the male reproductive tract. For example, elevated levels of DDE and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) have been measured in women with breast cancer. However, it should also be noted that numerous environmental and dietary compounds have also been characterized as antiestrogenic and as inhibitors of mammary cancer cell growthin vitro and/orin vivo. Some of these compounds include 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and related compounds, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), other naturally-occurring TCDD receptor agonists, retinoids, phorbol esters, terpenes, fatty acids, and polysaccharides. Thus, it is possible that dietary and environmental estrogens and antiestrogens may be contra-active, and these interactions must be considered in the overall risk assessment of the potential adverse human and environmental health impacts of these chemicals.     

Sex pheromone components of male <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tirathaba mundella</Emphasis> (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae)

Summary. During peak calling activity by male oil palm bunch moths, Tirathaba mundella Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), their hairpencils, wings or entire body were extracted in hexane. Gas chromatographic-electroantennographic detection (GC-EAD) analyses of hair pencil extracts revealed four compounds that consistently elicited responses from female antennae. The NMR spectrum of isolated compound 1, and mass spectra and retention indices of compounds 1–4 suggested that they were (3S,6S)-2,2,6-trimethyl-6-vinyl-tetrahydro-pyran-3-ol (1), 4-hydroxy-3-methoxy-benzaldehyde (2, vanillin), 6,10,14-trimethyl-2-pentadecanone (3), and 6,10,14-trimethyl-2-pentadecanol (4). Comparative GC and GC-MS analyses of hair pencils extract and synthetic standards confirmed these structural assignments. Moreover, comparative chromatography of synthetic and hairpencil-isolated 1 on a Cyclodex-B column (which separated the four stereoisomers with baseline resolution) revealed that male T. mundella produce the SS-stereoisomer (SS-1). In field cage bioassay experiments in Palembang, Indonesia, synthetic SS-1 and vanillin in combination, but not singly, attracted female T. mundella. SS-1 plus vanillin were as effective as male T. mundella in attracting females. Compounds 3 and 4 did not enhance the blend's attractiveness. Received October 11 2002; accepted March 14, 2003. R1D=" Correspondence to: Gerhard Gries, email: gries@sfu.ca