The value of information for integrated assessment models of climate change

We estimate the value of information (VOI) for three key parameters of climate integrated assessment models (IAMs): marginal damages at low temperature anomalies, marginal damages at high temperature anomalies, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. Most empirical studies of climate damages have examined temperature anomalies up to 3 °C, while some recent theoretical studies emphasize the risks of “climate catastrophes,” which depend on climate sensitivity and on marginal damages at higher temperature anomalies. We use a new IAM to estimate the VOI for each parameter over a range of assumed levels of study precision based on prior probability distributions calibrated using results from previous studies. We measure the VOI as the maximum fixed fraction of consumption that a social planner would be willing to pay to conduct a new study before setting a carbon tax. Our central results suggest that the VOI is greatest for marginal damages at high temperature anomalies.     

Limits to local adaptation: some impacts of temperature on Nucella emarginata differ among populations,while others do not

Predicting future impacts of temperature change require consideration of multiple impacts of temperature on organisms from different populations. We explored the impacts of temperature on feeding, growth, and mortality of emarginated dogwhelks, Nucella emarginata, from three populations (34.459, ?120.473; 34.435, ?119.930; 34.355, ?119.441) that are separated by a total distance of <100 km. Collections and experiments took place September–December 2012. Populations differed both in the number of mussels consumed at 16 and 20 °C and in the difference in feeding at these temperatures. Despite differences in feeding, increases in whelk mortality with temperature did not differ among populations, and in the 16 °C treatment changes in whelk mass did not differ among populations. These results indicate population-specific responses may differ even among geographically close populations. However, some traits may be more adaptable than others and impacts of a given change may be limited by various constraints (e.g., changes in feeding may accompany changes in metabolic needs). Improving our predictions of climate change impacts will require considering these issues, which may be especially important for marine communities where species differ widely in developmental mode, population connectivity, and other traits which may affect responses to changing temperatures.     

How hot for how long? The potential role of heat intensity and duration in moderating the beneficial effects of an ecosystem engineer on rocky shores

Studies of the importance of ecosystem engineers have focused on their benefit to biodiversity through ameliorating environmental stress, without understanding the exact benefits gained by associated organisms. On monsoonal tropical shores, species experience strong seasonality in environmental conditions from almost temperate winters to tropical summers when mass mortalities can occur during daytime emersion. The limpet, Cellana grata, associates with an ecosystem engineer, the barnacle Tetraclita japonica, in summer, but not in winter. To understand the benefits of this association, physiological responses (heart rates and osmotic responses) of the limpet either amongst Tetraclita or on open rock surfaces were investigated under three environmental conditions in a laboratory mesocosm: awash (non-stressed), low (30 °C) and high thermal stress (40 °C) of varying durations (3 or 6 h). In general, at 30 °C, limpets showed similar physiological responses under all conditions for both exposure durations. After 6 h at 40 °C, however, all limpets on open rock surfaces died, whereas those associated with barnacles survived. The surviving limpets experienced similar levels of stress as those exposed to 40 °C on open rock surfaces for half the time (3 h), showing that both the level and duration of stress were important. Limpets, therefore, gain benefits from engineering species when conditions are extreme or stress is prolonged. Under low temperatures or for short durations (e.g. winter), associating with barnacles does not provide physiological benefits. Understanding how, and to what extent, associates benefit from ecosystem engineers highlights how close the margin between survival and mortality can be when conditions are extreme.     

Fiji's worst natural disaster: the 1931 hurricane and flood

At least 225 people in the Fiji Islands died as a result of the 1931 hurricane and flood, representing the largest loss of life from a natural disaster in Fiji's recent history. This paper explores the causes of disaster and the potential for recurrence. The disaster occurred because a rare event surprised hundreds of people—especially recently settled Indian farmers—occupying highly exposed floodplains in north‐west Viti Levu island. The likelihood of a flood disaster of such proportions occurring today has been diminished by changed settlement patterns and building materials; however, a trend towards re‐occupancy of floodplains, sometimes in fragile dwellings, is exposing new generations to flood risks. The contribution of this paper to the global hazards literature is set out in three sections: the ethnicity, gender and age of flood fatalities; the naturalness of disasters; and the merit of choice and constraint as explanations for patterns of vulnerability.     

A Comparison of Alternative Strategies for Cost-Effective Water Quality Management in Lakes

Roughly 45% of the assessed lakes in the United States are impaired for one or more reasons. Eutrophication due to excess phosphorus loading is common in many impaired lakes. Various strategies are available to lake residents for addressing declining lake water quality, including septic system upgrades and establishing riparian buffers. This study examines 25 lakes to determine whether septic upgrades or riparian buffers are a more cost-effective strategy to meet a phosphorus reduction target. We find that riparian buffers are the more cost-effective strategy in every case but one. Large transaction costs associated with the negotiation and monitoring of riparian buffers, however, may be prohibiting lake residents from implementing the most cost-effective strategy. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Understanding Managers’ Views of Global Environmental Risk

This research investigated managers’ views of two global environmental risks: climate change and loss of biodiversity. The intent was to understand why different managers place varying levels of attention and priority on these issues. The data came from in-depth interviews with 28 senior corporate managers across Canada and a range of sectors, although most were employed in the energy sector. Approximately half had direct environmental responsibilities and half had other management duties. Grounded theory was used to collect and analyze the data. From the results, a theoretical framework was constructed to explain important factors that can influence managers’ mental models of environmental risk. Four factors relevant to managers’ appraisal of the threat of environmental risk include: (1) salience, (2) intrinsic value of nature, (3) knowledge, and (4) perceived resilience of nature. In addition, four factors relevant to managers’ view of the appeal of a particular response strategy were: (1) avoidability, (2) perceived costs and benefits, (3) fairness and equity, and (4) effectiveness. The time horizon for decision making was seen as being important in both portions of the mental model.     

Poultry litter application to loblolly pine forests: growth and nutrient containment

Forestland application of poultry manure offers an alternative to the conventional practice of pastureland application. Before such a practice is considered viable, however, it must be demonstrated that the forest ecosystem is capable of absorbing the nutrients contained in poultry manure, especially nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). From the forestry perspective, it must also be demonstrated that tree growth is not diminished. We investigated these questions using loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) stands growing in central Mississippi in an area of high poultry production. Stockpiled broiler litter was applied to newly thinned, 8-yr-old stands at 0, 4.6, and 18.6 dry Mg ha-1, supplying 0, 200, and 800 kg N ha-1 and 0, 92, and 370 kg P ha-1, respectively. Levels of nitrate in soil water, monitored at a 50-cm depth with porous cup tension lysimeters, exceeded 10 mg N L-1 during the first two years after application in the 18.6 Mg ha-1 rate but only on two occasions in the first year for the lower rate of application. Phosphate was largely absent from lysimeter water in all treatments. Other macronutrients (K, Ca, Mg, S) were elevated in lysimeter water in proportion to litter application rates. Soil extractable nitrate showed similar trends to lysimeter water, with substantial elevation during the first year following application for the 18.6 Mg ha-1 rate. Mehlich III-extractable phosphate peaked in excess of 100 microg P g-1 soil during the third year of the study for the 18.6 Mg ha-1 rate. The 4.6 Mg ha-1 rate did not affect extractable soil P. Tree growth was increased by the poultry litter. Total stem cross-sectional area, or basal area, was approximately 20% greater after 2 yr for both rates of litter application. Overall, the nutrients supplied by the 4.6 Mg ha-1 rate were contained by the pine forest and resulted in favorable increases in tree growth. The higher rate, by contrast, did pose some risk to water quality through the mobilization of nitrate. These results show that, under the conditions of this study, application of poultry litter at moderate rates of approximately 5 Mg ha-1 to young stands of loblolly pine offers an alternative disposal option with minimal impacts to water quality and potential increases in tree growth.     

Use of Airborne γ-Ray Spectrometry for Environmental Assessment of the Rehabilitated Nabarlek Uranium Mine, Australia

This article describes an airborne γ survey of a 7 × 5 km region around the rehabilitated Nabarlek uranium mine in northern Australia. An unusually tight line spacing (100 m) and low aircraft height (50 m) were used, enabling the survey to distinguish man-made structures such as ponds and accommodation areas, as well as creek lines. Positive correlations between airborne data and ground-based readings enabled an estimation of the average absorbed dose rate arising from terrestrial γ radiation over large areas of the site to be derived. For the fenced minesite area this estimate was 0.31 μ Gy hr^{− 1}. The airborne survey data were found to be invaluable in helping to plan further ground-level investigations and showed promise as an assessment tool for rehabilitated minesites.     

Assessment of dermal exposure to benzene and toluene in shoe manufacturing by activated carbon cloth patches

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this investigation was to use activated carbon cloth (ACC) patches to study the probability and extent of dermal exposure to benzene and toluene in a shoe factory. METHODS: Inhalation and dermal exposure loading were measured simultaneously in 70 subjects on multiple days resulting in 113 observations. Dermal exposure loading was assessed by ACC patches attached to likely exposed skin areas (e.g. the palm of the hand and abdomen). A control patch at the chest and an organic vapor monitor (OVM) were used to adjust the hand and abdomen patches for the contribution from the air through passive absorption of benzene and toluene on the ACC patches. Systemic exposure was assessed by quantification of unmetabolized benzene (UBz) and toluene (UTol) in urine. RESULTS: Mean air concentrations for the study population were 1.5 and 7.5 ppm for benzene and toluene, respectively. Iterative regression analyses between the control patch, OVM and the dermal patches showed that only a small proportion of the ACC patches at the hand had likely benzene (n = 4; mean 133 microg cm(-2) h(-1)) or toluene (n = 5; mean 256 microg cm(-2) h(-1)) contamination. Positive patches were exclusively observed among subjects performing the task of gluing. Significant dermal exposure loading to the abdomen was detected only for toluene (n = 2; mean 235 microg cm(-2) h(-1)). No relation was found between having a positive hand or abdomen ACC patch and UBz or UTol levels. In contrast a strong association was found between air levels of benzene (p = 0.0016) and toluene (p < 0.0001) and their respective urinary levels. CONCLUSIONS: ACC patches are shown to be a useful technique for quantifying the probability of dermal exposure to organic solvents and to provide estimates of the potential contribution of the dermal pathway to systemic exposure. Using ACC patches we show that dermal exposure to benzene and toluene in a shoe manufacturing factory is probably rare, and when it occurred exposures were relatively low and did not significantly contribute to systemic exposure.     

MODELING URBAN NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION WITH A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: A geographic information system (GIS) was a useful aid in the assessment of urban nonpoint source pollution and the development of a pollution control strategy. The GIS was used for data integration and display, and to provide data for a nonpoint source model. An empirical nonpoint source loading model driven by land use was used to estimate pollutant loadings of priority pollutants. Pollutant loadings were estimated at fine spatial resolution and aggregated to storm sewer drainage basins (sewersheds). Eleven sewersheds were generated from digital versions of sewer maps. The pollutant loadings of individual land use polygons, derived as the units of analysis from street blocks, were aggregated to get total pollutant loadings within each sewershed. Based on the model output, a critical sewershed was located. Pollutant loadings at major sewer junctions within the critical sewershed were estimated to develop a mitigation strategy. Two approaches based on the installation of wet ponds were investigated - a regional approach using one large wet pond at the major sewer outfall and a multisite approach using a number of smaller sites for each major sewer junction. Cost analyses showed that the regional approach would be more cost effective, though it would provide less pollution control.