Understanding abundance patterns of a declining seabird: implications for monitoring.

The Kittlitz's Murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) is a rare, non-colonial seabird often associated with tidewater glaciers and a recent candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act. We estimated abundance of Kittlitz's Murrelets across space and time from at-sea surveys along the coast of Alaska (USA) and then used these data to develop spatial models to describe abundance patterns and identify environmental factors affecting abundance. Over a five-week period in the summer of 2005, we recorded 794 Kittlitz's Murrelets, 16 Marbled Murrelets (B. marmoratus), and 70 unidentified murrelets. The overall population estimate (N, mean +/- SE) during the peak period (3-9 July) was 1317 +/- 294 birds, decreasing to 68 +/- 37 by the last survey period (31 July-6 August). Density of Kittlitz's Murrelets was highest in pelagic waters of Taan Fjord (18.6 +/- 7.8 birds/km2, mean +/- SE) during 10-16 July. Spatial models identified consistent "hotspots" of Kittlitz's Murrelets, including several small areas where high densities of murrelets were found throughout the survey period. Of the explanatory variables that we evaluated, tidal current strength influenced murrelet abundance most consistently, with higher abundance associated with strong tidal currents. Simulations based on the empirically derived estimates of variation demonstrated that spatial variation strongly influenced power to detect trend, although power changed little across the threefold difference in the coefficient of variation on detection probability. We include recommendations for monitoring Kittlitz's Murrelets (or other marine species) when there is a high degree of uncertainty about factors affecting abundance, especially spatial variability.     

Analyzing animal movements using Brownian bridges

By studying animal movements, researchers can gain insight into many of the ecological characteristics and processes important for understanding population-level dynamics. We developed a Brownian bridge movement model (BBMM) for estimating the expected movement path of an animal, using discrete location data obtained at relatively short time intervals. The BBMM is based on the properties of a conditional random walk between successive pairs of locations, dependent on the time between locations, the distance between locations, and the Brownian motion variance that is related to the animal's mobility. We describe two critical developments that enable widespread use of the BBMM, including a derivation of the model when location data are measured with error and a maximum likelihood approach for estimating the Brownian motion variance. After the BBMM is fitted to location data, an estimate of the animal's probability of occurrence can be generated for an area during the time of observation. To illustrate potential applications, we provide three examples: estimating animal home ranges, estimating animal migration routes, and evaluating the influence of fine-scale resource selection on animal movement patterns.     

Evaluation of an explicit NOx chemistry method in AERMOD

An explicit NO_x chemistry method has been implemented in AERMOD version 15181, ADMSM. The scheme has been evaluated by comparison with the methodologies currently recommended by the U.S. EPA for Tier 3 NO₂ calculations, that is, OLM and PVMRM2. Four data sets have been used for NO₂ chemistry method evaluation. Overall, ADMSM-modeled NO₂ concentrations show the most consistency with the AERMOD calculations of NO_x and the highest Index of Agreement; they are also on average lower than those of both OLM and PVMRM2. OLM shows little consistency with modeled NO_x concentrations and markedly overpredicts NO₂. PVMRM2 shows performance closer to that of ADMSM than OLM; however, its behavior is inconsistent with modeled NO_x in some cases and it has less good statistics for NO₂. The trend in model performance can be explained by examining the features particular to each chemistry method: OLM can be considered as a screening model as it calculates the upper bound of conversion from NO to NO₂ possible with the background O₃ concentration; PVMRM2 includes a much-improved estimate of in-plume O₃ but is otherwise similar to OLM, assuming instantaneous reaction of NO with O₃; and ADMSM allows for the rate of this reaction and also the photolysis of NO₂. Evaluation with additional data sets is needed to further clarify the relative performance of ADMSM and PVMRM2.

Implications: Extensive evaluation of the current AERMOD Tier 3 chemistry methods OLM and PVMRM2, alongside a new scheme that explicitly calculates the oxidation of NO by O₃ and the reverse photolytic reaction, shows that OLM consistently overpredicts NO₂ concentrations. PVMRM2 performs well in general, but there are some cases where this method overpredicts NO₂. The new explicit NO_x chemistry scheme, ADMSM, predicts NO₂ concentrations that are more consistent with both the modeled NO_x concentrations and the observations.     

Benefit‐Cost Analysis of Integrated Water Resource Management: Accounting for Interdependence in the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan

Integrated water resource management (IWRM) requires accounting for many interrelated facets of water systems, water uses and stakeholders, and water management activities. The consequence is that project analysis must account for the nonseparability among the component parts of IWRM plans. This article presents a benefit‐cost (B‐C) analysis of a set of projects included in the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan proposed for the Yakima Basin in south‐central Washington State. The analysis accounts for interdependence among proposed water storage projects and between water storage and water market development in the context of historical and more adverse projected future climate scenarios. Focusing on irrigation benefits from storage, we show that the value of a given proposed storage project is lower when other proposed storage projects in the basin are implemented, and when water markets are functioning effectively. We find that none of the water storage projects satisfy a B‐C criterion, and that assuring proposed instream flow augmentation is less expensive by purchasing senior diversion rights than relying on new storage to provide it.     

Speed or deliberation: a comparison of post‐disaster recovery in Japan,Turkey, and Chile

This paper compares recovery in the wake of three recent earthquakes: the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011; the Van earthquake in Turkey in October 2011; and the Maule earthquake in Chile in February 2010. The authors visited all three locations approximately 12–18 months after the incidents and interviewed earthquake specialists, disaster managers, urban planners, and local authorities. A key challenge to post‐disaster recovery planning is balancing speed and deliberation. While affected communities must rebuild as quickly as possible, they must also seek to maximise the opportunities for improvement that disasters provide. The three case studies bring this dilemma into stark relief, as recovery was respectively slow, fast, and just right in the aftermath of the events: the Government of Japan adopted a deliberate approach to recovery and reconstruction; speed was of the essence in Turkey; and an effective balance between speed and deliberation was achieved in Chile.     

Fatty acid methyl ester analysis to identify sources of soil in surface water

Efforts to improve land-use practices to prevent contamination of surface waters with soil are limited by an inability to identify the primary sources of soil present in these waters. We evaluated the utility of fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles of dry reference soils for multivariate statistical classification of soils collected from surface waters adjacent to agricultural production fields and a wooded riparian zone. Trials that compared approaches to concentrate soil from surface water showed that aluminum sulfate precipitation provided comparable yields to that obtained by vacuum filtration and was more suitable for handling large numbers of samples. Fatty acid methyl ester profiles were developed from reference soils collected from contrasting land uses in different seasons to determine whether specific fatty acids would consistently serve as variables in multivariate statistical analyses to permit reliable classification of soils. We used a Bayesian method and an independent iterative process to select appropriate fatty acids and found that variable selection was strongly impacted by the season during which soil was collected. The apparent seasonal variation in the occurrence of marker fatty acids in FAME profiles from reference soils prevented preparation of a standardized set of variables. Nevertheless, accurate classification of soil in surface water was achieved utilizing fatty acid variables identified in seasonally matched reference soils. Correlation analysis of entire chromatograms and subsequent discriminant analyses utilizing a restricted number of fatty acid variables showed that FAME profiles of soils exposed to the aquatic environment still had utility for classification at least 1 wk after submersion.     

Long-term cropping system effects on carbon sequestration in eastern Oregon

Soil organic carbon (SOC) has beneficial effects on soil quality and productivity. Cropping systems that maintain and/or improve levels of SOC may lead to sustainable crop production. This study evaluated the effects of long-term cropping systems on C sequestration. Soil samples were taken at 0- to 10-, 10- to 20-, 20- to 30-, and 30- to 40-cm soil depth profiles from grass pasture (GP), conventional tillage (CT) winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-fallow (CTWF), and fertilized and unfertilized plots of continuous winter wheat (WW), spring wheat (SW), and spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) (SB) monocultures under CT and no-till (NT). The samples were analyzed for soil organic matter (SOM) and SOC was derived. Ages of experiments ranged from 6 to 73 yr. Compared to 1931 SOC levels (initial year), CTWF reduced SOC by 9 to 12 Mg ha(-1) in the 0- to 30-cm zone. Grass pasture increased SOC by 6 Mg ha(-1) in the 0- to 10-cm zone but decreased SOC by 3 Mg ha(-1) in the 20- to 30-cm zone. Continuous CT monocultures depleted SOC in the top 0- to 10-cm zone and the bottom 20- to 40-cm zone but maintained SOC levels close to 1931 SOC levels in the 10- to 20-cm layer. Continuous NT monocultures accumulated more SOC in the 0- to 10-cm zone than in deeper zones. Total SOC (0- to 40-cm zone) was highest under GP and continuous cropping and lowest under CTWF. Fertilizer increased total SOC only under CTWW and CTSB by 13 and 7 Mg ha(-1) in 13 yr, respectively. Practicing NT for only 6 yr had started to reverse the effect of 73 yr of CTWF. Compared to CTWF, NTWW and NTSW sequestered C at rates of 2.6 and 1.7 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively, in the 0- to 40-cm zone. This study showed that the potential to sequester C can be enhanced by increasing cropping frequency and eliminating tillage.     

Experimental photochemical release of organically bound aluminum and iron in three streams in Maine, USA

In the present study, the BCR (Community Bureau of Reference) sequential procedure has been applied to determine the zinc partition in sediments taken from a river situated in the Southwest of Romania, in a region subject of intense mining activities. The sampling was performed during three sampling expeditions, organized in the spring, summer, and autumn, 2007. The zinc concentration in different fractions was normalized, its concentration being related to the concentrations of some metals (such as Al or Fe) that are naturally present in sediments. The zinc-contaminated sediments from the investigated area have been evaluated by means of combining the analysis data from the BCR sequential extraction with the normalization to the Al content. The most important zinc collector in the samples taken during the three sampling expeditions is the easily soluble fraction, next being amorphous iron and manganese hydrated oxides fraction, followed by organic matter fraction.     

Beyond data management: how ecoinformatics can benefit environmental monitoring programs

We review ways in which the new discipline of ecoinformatics is changing how environmental monitoring data are managed, synthesized, and analyzed. Rapid improvements in information technology and strong interest in biodiversity and sustainable ecosystems are driving a vigorous phase of development in ecological databases. Emerging data standards and protocols enable these data to be shared in ways that have previously been difficult. We use the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Coastal Assessment (NCA) as an example. The NCA has collected biological, chemical, and physical data from thousands of stations around the U.S. coasts since 1990. NCA data that were collected primarily to assess the ecological condition of the U.S. coasts can be used in innovative ways, such as biogeographical studies to analyze species invasions. NCA application of ecoinformatics tools leads to new possibilities for integrating the hundreds of thousands of NCA species records with other databases to address broad-scale and long-term questions such as environmental impacts, global climate change, and species invasions.