Managing the nitrogen cycle to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from crop production and biofuel expansion

Public policies are promoting biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuel consumption in order to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the mitigation benefit can be at least partially compromised by emissions occurring during feedstock production. One of the key sources of GHG emissions from biofuel feedstock production, as well as conventional crops, is soil nitrous oxide (N₂O), which is largely driven by nitrogen (N) management. Our objective was to determine how much GHG emissions could be reduced by encouraging alternative N management practices through application of nitrification inhibitors and a cap on N fertilization. We used the US Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS2) as the basis for a case study to evaluate technical and economic drivers influencing the N management mitigation strategies. We estimated soil N₂O emissions using the DayCent ecosystem model and applied the US Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) to project GHG emissions for the agricultural sector, as influenced by biofuel scenarios and N management options. Relative to the current RSF2 policy with no N management interventions, results show decreases in N₂O emissions ranging from 3 to 4 % for the agricultural sector (5.5–6.5 million metric tonnes CO₂?eq.?year^?1; 1 million metric tonnes is equivalent to a Teragram) in response to a cap that reduces N fertilizer application and even larger reductions with application of nitrification inhibitors, ranging from 9 to 10 % (15.5–16.6 million tonnes CO₂?eq.?year^?1). The results demonstrate that climate and energy policies promoting biofuel production could consider options to manage the N cycle with alternative fertilization practices for the agricultural sector and likely enhance the mitigation of GHG emissions associated with biofuels.     

Modeling the partitioning of BTEX in water-reformulated gasoline systems containing ethanol

The objectives of this research were to quantify the extent of cosolvency for water–gasoline mixtures containing ethanol and to identify appropriate modeling tools for predicting the equilibrium partitioning of BTEX compounds and ethanol between an ethanol-bearing gasoline and water. Batch-equilibrium experiments were performed to measure ethanol and BTEX partitioning between a gasoline and aqueous phase. The experiments incorporated simple binary and multicomponent organic mixtures comprised of as many as eight compounds as well as highly complex commercial gasolines where the composition of the organic phase was not completely defined. At high ethanol volume fractions, the measured partition coefficients displayed an approximate linear relationship when plotted on semi-log scale as a function of ethanol volume fraction. At lower concentrations, however, there was a distinctly different trend which is attributed to a change in solubilization mechanisms at these concentrations. Three mathematical models were compared with or fit to the experimental results. Log-linear and UNIFAC-based models were used in a predictive capacity and were capable of representing the overall increase in partition coefficients as a function of increasing ethanol content in the aqueous phase. However, neither of these predicted the observed two-part curve. A piecewise model comprised of a linear relationship for low ethanol volume fractions and a log-linear model for higher concentrations was fit to data for a surrogate gasoline comprised of eight compounds and was then used to predict BTEX concentrations in the aqueous phase equilibrated with three different commercial gasolines. This model was superior to the UNIFAC predictions, especially at the low aqueous ethanol concentrations.     

Objective Assessment of Countryside Recreation by Observation

It has been shown that strategic planning for countryside recreation may be based on an inadequate level of empirical information regarding countryside recreational activity. Questionnaire surveys provide most of the available data and the limitations of these are discussed. A methodology for investigating recreational activity is proposed and tested in Mid Wales using the observation of discrete areas of randomly selected Ordnance Survey 1 km grid squares. The results illustrate the type of countryside resource that is being used, the activities undertaken and the number of people involved. It is concluded that observation is a valuable tool in understanding the nature of recreation in the wider countryside.     

Relationships between water mass characteristics and estimates of fish population abundance from trawl surveys

The Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans conducts annual bottom trawl surveys to monitor changes in the abundance of the major commercially important groundfish populations. Some of these surveys have been in operation for almost 20 yr. The estimates from these surveys often indicate rapid changes in abundance over time beyond that expected from the population dynamics of the fish. Much of this interannual change has been interpreted as variation, the magnitude of which has often made it difficult to measure anything but the most severe effects of fishing, pollution or any other intervention on the population. Recent studies have shown that some of this variation may be attributed to changes in catchability of fish due to the effects of environmental variables on fish distribution. Annual changes in abundance as estimated from such field surveys may be confounded by changes in catchability due to annual changes in environmental conditions. In this study, trawl catches of age 4 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from surveys conducted during March 1979–1988 were compared with concurrent measurements of bottom salinity, temperature and depth. Large catches of age 4 cod are more likely to occur in water characterized as the intermediate cold layer defined by salinities of 32–33.5 and temperatures<5°C. This relationship also appears to be modified by depth. We further show that internnual changes in the estimated abundance from the surveys were, in a number of cases, coincident with changes in the proportion of the bottom water composed of the intermediate cold water layer. The implications that these patterns may have on interpreting trends in the estimates of abundance from trawl surveys are discussed.     

Prioritization of Ecosystem Services Research: Tampa Bay Demonstration Project

The Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Demonstration Project (TBESDP) is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Ecosystem Services Research Program. The principal objectives of TBESDP are to (1) quantify the ecosystem services of the Tampa Bay watershed, (2) determine the value of ecosystem services to society, (3) predict the supply of ecosystem services under future scenarios of population growth and climate change, and (4) apply this knowledge through models and tools that will support the best informed environmental decisions possible. The scope and complexity of this project required intensive effort to establish which services can be quantified by applying existing models, data, and scientific literature and which services will require supporting research. Research priorities were assessed by: (1) developing and refining conceptual models of major ecosystems in the Tampa Bay region, (2) gathering input from stakeholders about the relative importance and values of various ecosystem services, (3) preparing and reviewing a bibliometric analysis of the volume of scientific literature relevant to the ecosystems and services of interest, and (4) evaluating an integrated analysis of importance, value, and availability of scientific information. This analysis led us to focus on two research priorities, seagrass-habitat functions as support for fishery production, and wetlands as regulators of water quality.     

Maturation shifts in a temperate marine fish population cannot be explained by simulated changes in temperature-dependent growth and maturity

To disentangle genetic and environmental influences on phenotypic traits that influence maturation of fish, it would be useful to predict the expected change due to environment alone to compare with observations. This requires a realistically scaled, species-specific life history model of environmentally determined variation in individual growth and maturation. In this study, inter-annual variability in the proportion of mature haddock in the west North Sea was predicted using a stochastic, individual-based simulation model incorporating a temperature-dependent maturation threshold. This species and region are particularly relevant to the debate about the relative importance of genetic and climate change because North Sea haddock have experienced both high fishing mortality and substantial warming in recent decades. Using observed temperatures in combination with temperature-dependent models for growth and maturation, the simulation model predicted year-to-year variation in length and maturity at age expected for cohorts produced from 1979 to 2006. The simulated proportions mature at age 2 were then compared to the observed proportions in an annual bottom trawl survey. Although the model explained much of the high-frequency variation in maturation, the simulated time trend under-represented the rate of increase in the observed trend in proportions mature. This inability of the temperature-dependent life history model to predict the magnitude of change appears consistent with a long-term decline in the maturation threshold. This result provides indirect support for a genetic change in a key life history trait.     

A constrained least-squares approach to combine bottom-up and top-down CO2 flux estimates

Terrestrial CO₂ flux estimates are obtained from two fundamentally different methods generally termed bottom-up and top-down approaches. Inventory methods are one type of bottom-up approach which uses various sources of information such as crop production surveys and forest monitoring data to estimate the annual CO₂ flux at locations covering a study region. Top-down approaches are various types of atmospheric inversion methods which use CO₂ concentration measurements from monitoring towers and atmospheric transport models to estimate CO₂ flux over a study region. Both methods can also quantify the uncertainty associated with their estimates. Historically, these two approaches have produced estimates that differ considerably. The goal of this work is to construct a statistical model which sensibly combines estimates from the two approaches to produce a new estimate of CO₂ flux for our study region. The two approaches have complementary strengths and weaknesses, and our results show that certain aspects of the uncertainty associated with each of the approaches are greatly reduced by combining the methods. Our model is purposefully simple and designed to take the two approaches’ estimates and measures of uncertainty at ‘face value’. Specifically, we use a constrained least-squares approach to appropriately weigh the estimates by the inverse of their variance, and the constraint imposes agreement between the two sources. Our application involves nearly 18,000 flux estimates for the upper midwest United States. The constrained dependencies result in a non-sparse covariance matrix, but computation requires only minutes due to the structure of the model.     

Decomposing the mid-Holocene Tsuga decline in eastern North America

The mid-Holocene decline of Tsuga canadensis (hereafter Tsuga) populations across eastern North America is widely perceived as a synchronous event, driven by pests/pathogens, rapid climate change, or both. Pattern identification and causal attribution are hampered by low stratigraphic density of pollen-sampling and radiometric dates at most sites, and by absence of highly resolved, paired pollen and paleoclimate records from single sediment cores, where chronological order of climatic and vegetational changes can be assessed. We present an intensely sampled (contiguous 1-cm intervals) record of pollen and water table depth (inferred from testate amoebae) from a single core spanning the Tsuga decline at Irwin Smith Bog in Lower Michigan, with high-precision chronology. We also present an intensively sampled pollen record from Tower Lake in Upper Michigan. Both sites show high-magnitude fluctuations in Tsuga pollen percentages during the pre-decline maximum. The terminal decline is dated at both sites ca. 5000 cal yr BP, some 400 years later than estimates from other sites and data compilations. The terminal Tsuga decline was evidently heterochronous across its range. A transient decline ca. 5350 cal yr BP at both sites may correspond to the terminal decline at other sites in eastern North America. At Irwin Smith Bog, the terminal Tsuga decline preceded an abrupt and persistent decline in water table depths by approximately 200 years, suggesting the decline was not directly driven by abrupt climate change. The Tsuga decline may best be viewed as comprising at least three phases: a long-duration pre-decline maximum with high-magnitude and high-frequency fluctuations, followed by a terminal decline at individual sites, followed in turn by two millennia of persistently low Tsuga populations. These phases may not be causally linked, and may represent dynamics taking place at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Further progress toward understanding the phenomenon requires an expanded network of high-resolution pollen and paleoclimate chronologies.     

A test of the senses: fish select novel habitats by responding to multiple cues

Habitat-specific cues play an important role in orientation for animals that move through a mosaic of habitats. Environmental cues can be imprinted upon during early life stages to guide later return to adult habitats, yet many species must orient toward suitable habitats without previous experience of the habitat. It is hypothesized that multiple sensory cues may enable animals to differentiate between habitats in a sequential order relevant to the spatial scales over which the different types of information are conveyed, but previous research, especially for marine organisms, has mainly focused on the use of single cues in isolation. In this study, we investigated novel habitat selection through the use of three different sensory modalities (hearing, vision, and olfaction). Our model species, the French grunt, Haemulon flavolineatum, is a mangrove/seagrass-associated reef fish species that makes several habitat transitions during early life. Using several in situ and ex situ experiments, we tested the response of fish toward auditory, olfactory, and visual cues from four different habitats (seagrass beds, mangroves, rubble, and coral reef). We identified receptivity to multiple sensory cues during the same life phase, and found that different cues induced different reactions toward the same habitat. For example, early-juvenile fish only responded to sound from coral reefs and to chemical cues from mangroves/seagrass beds, while visual cues of conspecifics overruled olfactory cues from mangrove/seagrass water. Mapping these preferences to the ecology of ontogenetic movements, our results suggest sequential cue use would indeed aid successful orientation to novel key habitats in early life.     

Do natural disturbances or the forestry practices that follow them convert forests to early-successional communities?

Stand-replacing natural disturbances in mature forests are traditionally seen as events that cause forests to revert to early stages of succession and maintain species diversity. In some cases, however, such transitions could be an artifact of salvage logging and may increase biotic homogenization. We present initial (two-year) results of a study of the effects of tornado damage and the combined effects of tornado damage and salvage logging on environmental conditions and ground cover plant communities in mixed oak-pine forests in north central Mississippi. Plots were established in salvage-logged areas, adjacent to plots established before the storm in unlogged areas, spanning a gradient of storm damage intensity. Vegetation change directly attributable to tornado damage was driven primarily by a reduction in canopy cover but was not consistent with a transition to an early stage of succession. Although we observed post-storm increases of several disturbance indicators (ruderals), we also observed significant increases in the abundance of a few species indicative of upland forests. Increases in flowering were just as likely to occur in species indicative of forests as in species indicative of open woodlands. Few species declined as a result of the tornado, resulting in a net increase in species richness. Ruderals were very abundant in salvage-logged areas, which contained significantly higher amounts of bare ground and greater variance in soil penetrability than did damaged areas that were not logged. In contrast to unlogged areas severely damaged by the tornado, most upland forest indicators were not abundant in logged areas. Several of the forest and open-woodland indicators that showed increased flowering in damaged areas were absent or sparse in logged areas. Species richness was lower in salvage-logged areas than in adjacent damaged areas but similar to that in undamaged areas. These results suggest that salvage logging prevented positive responses of several forest and open-woodland species to tornado damage. Anthropogenic disturbances such as salvage logging appear to differ fundamentally from stand-level canopy-reducing disturbances in their effects on ground cover vegetation in the forests studied here and are perhaps more appropriately viewed as contributing to biotic homogenization than as events that maintain diversity.